Projections of Education Statistics to 2019

Projections of Education Statistics to 2019

Thirty-eighth Edition

001155 22001166 22001177 22001188 22001199

NCES 2011-017

U.S. DEPARTMENT OF EDUCATION

Projections of Education Statistics to 2019

Thirty-eighth Edition MARCH 2011

William J. Hussar National Center for Education Statistics Tabitha M. Bailey IHS Global Insight

NCES 2011-017

U.S. DEPARTMENT OF EDUCATION

U.S. Department of Education Arne Duncan Secretary

Institute of Education Sciences John Q. Easton Director

National Center for Education Statistics Jack Buckley Commissioner

The National Center for Education Statistics (NCES) is the primary federal entity for collecting, analyzing, and reporting data related to education in the United States and other nations. It fulfills a congressional mandate to collect, collate, analyze, and report full and complete statistics on the condition of education in the United States; conduct and publish reports and specialized analyses of the meaning and significance of such statistics; assist state and local education agencies in improving their statistical systems; and review and report on education activities in foreign countries.

NCES activities are designed to address high-priority education data needs; provide consistent, reliable, complete, and accurate indicators of education status and trends; and report timely, useful, and high-quality data to the U.S. Department of Education, the Congress, the states, other education policymakers, practitioners, data users, and the general public. Unless specifically noted, all information contained herein is in the public domain.

We strive to make our products available in a variety of formats and in language that is appropriate to a variety of audiences. You, as our customer, are the best judge of our success in communicating information effectively. If you have any comments or suggestions about this or any other NCES product or report, we would like to hear from you. Please direct your comments to

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March 2011

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This report was prepared in part under Contract No. ED-08-DO-0087 with IHS Global Insight. Mention of trade names, commercial products, or organizations does not imply endorsement by the U.S. Government.

Suggested Citation Hussar, W.J., and Bailey, T.M. (2011). Projections of Education Statistics to 2019 (NCES 2011-017). National Center for Education Statistics, Institute of Education Sciences, U.S. Department of Education. Washington, DC.

For ordering information on this report, write to

ED Pubs, U.S. Department of Education P.O. Box 22207 Alexandria, VA 22304

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Content Contact William J. Hussar (202) 502-7359 william.hussar@

Foreword

Projections of Education Statistics to 2019 is the 38th report in a series begun in 1964. It includes statistics on elementary and secondary schools and degree-granting institutions. This report provides revisions of projections shown in Projections of Education Statistics to 2018. Included are projections of enrollment, graduates, teachers, and expenditures to the year 2019. This is the first edition of the Projections of Education Statistics to include projections of elementary and secondary school enrollment and high school graduates by race/ethnicity.

In addition to projections at the national level, the report includes projections of public elementary and secondary school enrollment and public high school graduates to the year 2019 at the state level. The projections in this report were produced by the National Center for Education Statistics (NCES) to provide researchers, policy analysts, and others with state-level projections developed using a consistent methodology. They are not intended to supplant detailed projections prepared for individual states.

Assumptions regarding the population and the economy are the key factors underlying the projections of education statistics.

NCES projections do not reflect changes in national, state, or local education policies that may affect enrollment levels.

Appendix A of this report outlines the projection methodology and describes the models and assumptions used to develop the national and state projections. The enrollment models use enrollment data and population estimates and projections from NCES and the U.S. Census Bureau. The models are based on the mathematical projection of past data patterns into the future. The models also use projections of economic variables from IHS Global Insight, an economic forecasting service.

The projections presented in this report are based on the 2000 census and assumptions for the fertility rate, internal migration, net immigration, and mortality rate from the Census Bureau. For further information, see appendix A.

Val Plisko, Associate Commissioner Early Childhood, International, and Crosscutting Studies Division

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Contents

Page Foreword. .............................................................................................................................................................................. iii List of Tables......................................................................................................................................................................... vii List of Exhibits........................................................................................................................................................................ x List of Figures........................................................................................................................................................................ xi

About This Report.................................................................................................................................................................. 1 Projections .................................................................................................................................................................... 1 Limitations of Projections ............................................................................................................................................. 1

Section 1. Elementary and Secondary Enrollment ..........................................................................................................3 Introduction................................................................................................................................................................... 3 Accuracy of Projections.................................................................................................................................................. 3 National......................................................................................................................................................................... 4 State and Regional (Public School Data)........................................................................................................................ 6

Section 2. High School Graduates...................................................................................................................................7 Introduction................................................................................................................................................................... 7 Accuracy of Projections.................................................................................................................................................. 7 National......................................................................................................................................................................... 8 State and Regional (Public School Data)...................................................................................................................... 10

Section 3. Elementary and Secondary Teachers..............................................................................................................11 Introduction................................................................................................................................................................. 11 Accuracy of Projections................................................................................................................................................ 11 Teachers in Elementary and Secondary Schools............................................................................................................ 12

Section 4. Expenditures for Public Elementary and Secondary Education.....................................................................15 Introduction................................................................................................................................................................. 15 Accuracy of Projections................................................................................................................................................ 15 Current Expenditures................................................................................................................................................... 16

Section 5. Enrollment in Postsecondary Degree-Granting Institutions.........................................................................19 Introduction................................................................................................................................................................. 19 Accuracy of Projections................................................................................................................................................ 19 Total Enrollment.......................................................................................................................................................... 20 Enrollment by Selected Characteristics and Control of Institution......................................................................................................................................................... 21 First-Time Freshmen Enrollment ................................................................................................................................ 24

Projections of Education Statistics to 2019 v

Page Section 6. Postsecondary Degrees Conferred.................................................................................................................25

Introduction................................................................................................................................................................. 25 Accuracy of Projections................................................................................................................................................ 25 Degrees, by Level of Degree and Sex of Recipient......................................................................................................... 26 Reference Tables............................................................................................................................................................29 Technical Appendixes....................................................................................................................................................77 Appendix A. Introduction to Projection Methodology..................................................................................................78 A.0. Introduction to Projection Methodology.............................................................................................................. 78 A.1. Elementary and Secondary Enrollment................................................................................................................. 85 A.2. High School Graduates......................................................................................................................................... 98 A.3. Elementary and Secondary Teachers................................................................................................................... 104 A.4. Expenditures for Public Elementary and Secondary Education........................................................................... 113 A.5. Enrollment in Postsecondary Degree-Granting Institutions................................................................................ 117 A.6. Postsecondary Degrees Conferred....................................................................................................................... 136 Appendix B. Supplementary Tables.............................................................................................................................139 Appendix C. Data Sources...........................................................................................................................................147 Appendix D. References...............................................................................................................................................155 Appendix E. List of Abbreviations...............................................................................................................................157 Appendix F. Glossary...................................................................................................................................................159

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