Information in Balance Sheets for Future Stock Returns ...
Information in Balance Sheets for Future Stock Returns: Evidence
from Net Operating Assets *
Georgios Papanastasopoulos?
Department of Banking and Financial Management of the University of Piraeus
E-mail: papanast@unipi.gr
Dimitrios Thomakos
Department of Economics of the University of Peloponnese
E-mail: thomakos@uop.gr
Tao Wang
Department of Economics of the City University of New York
E-mail: tao.wang@qc.cuny.edu
First Draft: October 12, 2006
This Draft: April 25, 2009
*
The authors appreciate helpful comments from the seminar participants at the EAA (2007) annual
congress, at the FMA (2007) annual meeting, at the H.F.A.A. (2007) annual conference, at CASS
Business School, at HEC Lausanne and at the University of Piraeus. The authors also thank David
Hirshleifer, Gikas Hardouvelis, Roger Huang, Hoang Huy Nguyen (FMA discussant), M. Warachka
and an anonymous referee for insightful comments and suggestions. The usual disclaimer applies.
?
Corresponding Author
1
Information in Balance Sheets for Future Stock Returns: Evidence from Net Operating Assets
Abstract: This paper extends the work of Hirshleifer et al. (2004) on the net operating assets
(NOA) anomaly. After controlling for total accruals, we find a negative relation of NOA and
asset NOA components with future stock returns. We also find that the hedge strategies on
NOA and asset NOA components generate abnormal returns and constitute statistical
arbitrage opportunities. Our overall analysis is highly suggesting that the NOA anomaly may
be present due to a combination of opportunistic earnings management with agency related
overinvestment.
Keywords: Net operating assets (NOA), stock returns, statistical arbitrage, opportunistic
earnings management, overinvestment.
JEL classification: M4
2
1
Introduction
An extensive body of research in accounting and finance investigates the
informational content of firm¡¯s balance sheets for their future stock price returns. Starting
with Ou and Penman (1989) and followed by Holthausen and Larcker (1992), Lev and
Thiagarajan (1993), Abarbanell and Bushee (1997) and Piotroski (2000) they showed that
various balance sheet ratios can be used to predict future stock returns. Sloan (1996) found
that firms with low working capital accruals (change in net working capital minus
depreciation expense) experience higher future stock returns than firms with low working
capital accruals. Fairfield at al. (2003a) showed that changes in net long term operating assets
are associated with future stock returns in similar manner with working capital accruals. In
follow up research, Richardson et al. (2005) extended the definition of accruals employed in
Sloan (1996) to include changes in net long term operating assets and showed that this
extended measure of total accruals (change in net operating assets) is associated with even
greater stock returns. Chan et al. (2006) found that Sloan¡¯s (1996) results are primary
attributable to inventory, accounts receivable and accounts payable accruals. Finally, Cooper
et al. (2008) found that a firm¡¯s asset growth rate is also negatively related with future stock
returns, while Chan et al. (2008) showed that this finding exists for all asset growth
components except cash.
An important contribution to the above research is the paper of Hirshleifer et al.
(2004). They found that the level of net operating assets, scaled by lagged total assets (NOA),
is a strong negative predictor of future stock returns for at least three years after the balance
sheet information is released. NOA represents the cumulation over time of the difference
between operating income (accounting profitability) and free cash flow (cash profitability). In
other words NOA is a cumulative measure of total accruals ¨C a measure of balance sheet
bloat:
/ T = ¡Æ0 Operating Iincomet ? ¡Æ0 Free Cash Flows t = ¡Æ0 Total Accrualst
NOA
T
T
T
(1)
The key insight emerging from the above relationship is that a cumulation of
accounting income without a cumulation of free cash flows raises doubts about the
sustainability of current earnings performance. Hirshleifer et al. (2004) call the negative
relation of NOA with future stock returns as ¡°sustainability effect¡±, since high NOA is an
indicator of a rising trend in current accounting profitability that is unlikely to be sustained in
the future: investors with limited attention focusing in accounting income can make flawed
investment decisions.1 In particular, investors overvalue firms with high NOA and undervalue
1
Hirshleifer and Teoh (2003) suggest that information that is more salient or which requires less
cognitive power is used more by investors and as a result is impounded more in the stock prices.
3
firms with low NOA. This leads to a NOA anomaly whereby firms with high (low) NOA
experience negative (positive) future abnormal stock returns. Hirshleifer et al. (2004) also
provided clear evidence that NOA is a more comprehensive measure of investor¡¯s overoptimism about the sustainability of current earnings performance that captures information
over and above than contained in working capital accruals and total accruals. Further, they
claimed that the level of net operating assets is superior to accruals because it captures all
cumulative past changes between accounting profitability and cash profitability, rather the
most recent change. 2
The current evidence on the predictive ability of NOA for future stock returns raises
several broader questions. First, previous research has not focused on the whether different
forms of net operating assets are related with future stock returns as measures of the
sustainability of current earnings performance. For example, as claimed by Hirshleifer at al.
(2004) an important distinction based on the nature of the underlying business activity that
NOA capture, is between net working capital assets (NWCA) and net non current operating
assets (NNCOA). Similarly, another important distinction based on the nature of underlying
benefits and obligations that NWCA and NNCOA represent, is between their asset and
liability components. In particular, NWCA can be divided into working capital assets (WCA)
and liabilities (WCL), while NNCOA into non current operating assets (NCOA) and liabilities
(NCOL).
Second, the interpretation of the NOA anomaly is still a controversial issue. Several
explanations can be put forward, but previous studies have not distinguished among them.
From a rational pricing perspective, a possible explanation is that high NOA firms are less
risky than low NOA firms, and therefore earn lower risk premia. As such, whether the NOA
anomaly represents rational risk premium or market inefficiency is under debate. Note that
based on Callen and Segal (2004) the NOA to equity market value ratio can be used to derive
an accounting-based valuation model with time-varying discount rates.
Under a behavioral interpretation, the most common line of thought follows the
opportunistic earnings management hypothesis of Xie (2001) and the agency related
overinvestment hypothesis of Jensen (1986). According, to the opportunistic earnings
management hypothesis, NOA increases as managers book sales prematurely, allocate more
2
In a recent paper, Richardson et al. (2006) argued that the predictive power of net operating assets
does not differ from that of total accruals because net operating assets in Hirshleifer et al. (2004) are
deflated by lagged total assets. Richardson et al. (2006) supported their argument with algebraic
decompositions and empirical results from descriptive statistics and correlations. However, note that
the measures used in Richardson et al. (2005) and Hirshleifer et al. (2004) are not mathematically
equivalent. Furthermore, empirical results from descriptive statistics and correlations do not necessarily
imply or infer causality for Richardson et al. (2006) argument. On the other hand, Hirshleifer et al.
(2004) findings show that the level of net operating assets is a cumulative measure of investor
misperceptions about the sustainability of financial performance that captures information beyond that
contained in flow variables such as working capital accruals or total accruals.
4
overhead expenses to inventory than to cost of goods sold, capitalize operating expenses as
fixed assets, select depreciation/amortization schedules that are not based on the underlying
useful and salvage values of fixed assets and understate operating liabilities, in order to inflate
earnings upwards. Managerial discretion calls also for write-down decisions based on
subjective estimates of fair value of NOA (e.g. receivables, inventory, intangibles, property,
plant and equipment).
Based on the overinvestment explanation, NOA increases as managers invest in
value-destroying projects to serve their own interests. As another competing behavioral
explanation one can think that hypothesis that NOA contain adverse information about firm¡¯s
business conditions. Based, on this hypothesis, NOA could increase as a result of difficulties
in generating sales, pressures to extend credit terms, overproduction and less efficient use of
existing investments. In all above cases, high NOA provides a warning signal about the
sustainability of current earnings performance. However, investors with limited attention that
focus in accounting income and fail to discount for the low sustainability of current earnings
performance will overvalue (undervalue) firms with high (low) NOA.
A final behavioral interpretation could draw on the idea that the sustainability effect
may stem from the same patterns of investor behavior to the value/glamour effect.
Lakonishok et al. (1994) postulate that investors extrapolate the weak (strong) past growth
rates of value (growth) firms to form pessimistic (optimistic) expectations about their future
growth rates. As growth rates mean-revert in the future, investors are negatively (positively)
surprised by the performance of growth (value) firms. NOA by definition reflects all
cumulative past changes between accounting profitability and cash profitability, which in turn
tend to rise with sales. In other words, firms with high NOA are more likely to have high past
growth in sales. As a result, the sustainability effect may arise from investor¡¯s errors in
expectations about future growth.
The above behavioral hypotheses are not mutually exclusive and probably co-exist.
Managers of firms that face a slowdown in business conditions could have additional motives
to manipulate earnings upwards in order to meet analyst forecasts and to engage in wasteful
spending that serves their own interests, thereby leading to an increase in NOA. These
motives could be stronger as investors and analysts extrapolate past trends in growth rates to
form expectations about future growth rates.
The above issues motivate us to focus on the NOA anomaly in order to get a better
understanding of its underlying causes. Our work is organized along three dimensions. First,
we empirically investigate the relation of NOA and NOA components with future stock
returns ¨C after controlling for total accruals (TACC). That is, we examine directly whether
NOA and NOA components can reflect additional information for future stock returns beyond
5
................
................
In order to avoid copyright disputes, this page is only a partial summary.
To fulfill the demand for quickly locating and searching documents.
It is intelligent file search solution for home and business.
Related download
- financial statement analysis of leverage and how it
- chapter 23 valuing young or start up firms
- negative operating ebit
- accounting for deferred tax assets 9 29 00
- understanding your monthly balance sheet
- information in balance sheets for future stock returns
- the cash flow statement
- valuing firms with negative earnings
- iv operating income growth when return on capital is changing
- chapter 22 valuing firms with negative earnings
Related searches
- balance sheets and income statements
- best stock returns for 2018
- best stock returns ytd 2018
- future stock price calculator
- sample balance sheets pdf
- future stock price formula
- expected future stock price calculator
- balance sheets examples
- average stock returns by month
- projected future stock prices
- do stock returns include dividends
- best stock returns ytd