Designing the Right Global Supply Chain Network - 2019

Designing the Right Global Supply Chain Network

Morris A. Cohen

The Wharton School, University of Pennsylvania

Hau L. Lee

Graduate School of Business, Stanford University

March 29, 2019

Abstract: This paper considers how research in Operations Management can support the

development of strategies for the design and management of global supply chains. It includes a

model-based statement of the problem and an overview of highlights of past research that is

relevant to both theory and practice. The paper identifies opportunities for research that focus

on how global supply chain modeling can inform the current debate concerning the reaction of

firms to changes in government policy that are relevant to global manufacturing and logistics.

This includes policy changes such as tariffs, content requirements, taxes and investment

incentives.

1. Introduction and Motivation

The global economy is in the midst of major upheavals that affect global supply chain

strategy in every industry. Today, firms are facing enormous pressure to re-structure, re-design

and re-think where and how products are produced, inputs are sourced and customer demand is

fulfilled. The drivers for this change include all of the usual factors such as market volatility,

cost differentials and technology disruption. Additionally, there are unknowns concerning

government policies which affect both cross-border trade and local processes. This has led to the

current situation where we are experiencing a trade war, with governments looking to optimize

the domestic portion of the supply chains that operate in their jurisdiction. At the same time,

accompanies are striving to optimize their particular global supply chains which operate in

multiple jurisdictions and which generate extensive cross-border flows of goods, money,

information and control.

The focus of this paper is on how these forces could guide the research on the design and

management of global supply chains, given the past three decades of operations management

research and applications. In addition to formulating a model-based statement of the problem

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and to providing an overview of highlights of past research, we will consider current challenges

and trends which suggest new opportunities for both research and practice. Our particular focus

will be on how global supply chain modeling can inform the current debate concerning how

firms should modify their global supply chain strategy in response to changes in government

policy.

First, let us define the key elements of a global supply chain strategy. The goal, as in all

supply chains, is to match supply with demand, but on a global scale. This is achieved through

a hierarchy of decisions that determine material flows, capacities and capabilities at each

manufacturing and stocking location, as well as cash flows and technology investments. These

decisions jointly determine the landed cost for every product/customer destination combination

as well as the total cost of ownership, both of which are keys to customer acceptance and market

share. Tradeoffs that must be considered include all fixed and variable costs, revenues that drive

global after-tax profit, as well as metrics related to customer satisfaction, service and competitive

position. In addition, resource constraints based on the capacity and capabilities of all valueadding processes, at all stages in the product life cycle (i.e. design, produce, fulfill, support),

must be satisfied. Finally, there are the constraints imposed by government policies within each

country of operation. While many objective functions can be formulated for the global supply

chain strategy problem, (e.g. maximize global, after-tax profit, maximize corporate market value,

increase growth, etc.,), most major companies also recognize that their global supply chains can

act to mitigate the many risks they face as they operate globally. These risks include foreign

exchange rate fluctuation, market demand and price volatility, uncertainties in trade policies, and

decisions made by their competition. As noted, the focus of this paper will be on the responses

associated with government policy changes such as adjustments to tariffs, import and export

quotas, investment credits and incentives, cash flow restrictions and foreign ownership

limitations.

2 Challenges and Trends

It is instructive to note some of the current challenges associated with the management of

global supply chains that firms are facing as we evaluate the relevance of the current state of

operations management research. As globalization has become pervasive, suppliers have

pursued global markets and most companies source extensively from global suppliers. This has

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led to an increase in outsourcing and a corresponding decline in vertical integration. As a result,

supply chain networks have become more complex and both first and lower tier suppliers are

playing a more important role in many industries. A recent reaction to this re-structuring of

supply chains has been increased interest in re-shoring, especially in the US and other developed

economies, where there is pressure to re-examine sourcing strategy and to promote ¡°bringing

manufacturing back¡± (or at least closer) to home. As supply chain re-structuring has accelerated,

we observe increased volatility of costs and demand. At the same time, more emphasis is now

given to product quality and labor relations. Other factors which must be considered include the

need to mitigate the impact of supply chain disruptions-caused by both economic and political

events, and the rising expectations for end-to-end product support services which has led a

movement towards incentive aligned, performance-based contracting. Finally, technology

developments now affect product design, production processes and the management of

production and service-support supply chains. Some of these technological developments are

expected to be highly disruptive (e.g. industry 4.0, Internet of Things, blockchain, and robotics,

etc.). This disruption will occur in part due to the possibility for increasing coordination through

the leverage of enhanced data sharing and visibility, and through enhanced integration of

decision making among supply chain partners. Finally, we note that supply chain strategy has a

major impact on a firm¡¯s carbon footprint, energy consumption, waste and recycling and end-oflife disposal. Such environmental considerations also must be considered.

We argue that firms today are facing a crisis, created by all of the challenges note above.

Firms have found that facing these challenges is unavoidable as they will have a major impact on

their competitive success and the welfare of countries in which they do business. The question

concerning how companies are responding or should be responding to the current crisis is now

hotly debated and has become highly politicized. In particular, there is a debate about re-shoring

to the US, Japan, Europe and/or other developed countries. Is it a real phenomenon that will

revive domestic manufacturing and service industries or has it yet to occur on a scale that will

restore domestic manufacturing employment in the developed economies? The decline in

employment in manufacturing industries in the US and other developed economies has been

underway for some time and is typically attributed to major cost differences for labor. The

potential impact of disruptions due to government policy changes is unknown. Figure 1

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illustrates historical employment data (in thousands) for the US which is representative for all

developed economies.

Figure 1: US Employment in Manufacturing Industries

We recently conducted a detailed benchmark survey of manufacturing sourcing decisions

(see Cohen et al., 2018). One of its key findings was that many firms were adopting new global

supply chain strategies and were re-structuring their supply chains in response to fundamental

changes in their environment (costs, markets, suppliers, and technology, etc.). The common

wisdom, as reported in the press, tries to explain this restructuring as a response to a dominant

factor such as the pursuit of lower labor costs or as a reaction to changes in tariffs or government

incentives. Our survey results indicated that companies were re-defining their global supply

chain footprint in a manner which considered the complex tradeoffs of multiple factors along

with risk factors associated with global supply chains. This is consistent with the operations

management modeling literature, which has formulated the global strategy problem in terms of

models that capture many of the interactions and tradeoffs that are relevant to the problem.

The survey also noted the following trends in production sourcing decisions.

1. China continued to be the most attractive region for production sourcing. However, cost

was not the sole driving force. Market access, quality and supply chain performance have

emerged as dominant drivers for increasing production volume in China.

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2. In the opposite direction it was primarily labor cost that drove companies out of China to

lower cost locations like ASEAN countries.

3. Eastern Europe and Russia was the second most attractive region for offshoring.

Especially Western European countries used near-shore cost advantages.

4. Western Europe was the region with the largest outflow of production volume and one

out of only two with a negative net-effect on production volume in our sample. Yet,

machinery companies still invested in capital-intensive production in Western Europe

5. For North America, a growth in production volume can be observed with more

companies investing than divesting.

6. Only Asian firms with a strong commercial focus on Japan and ASEAN countries

increased production volume in Japan while even more firms shifted production from

Japan in light of the recent natural disaster

These observations suggest that outsourcing to low labor cost countries continues to be a

favored strategy in certain industries in spite of government policies and incentives to promote

domestic manufacturing and/or restrict outsourcing. Some argue that technology (e.g. robotics,

3-D printing, social networks) will tip the balance between offshoring and reshoring.

The reported multi-dimensional decision drivers and the resulting complex pattern of

supply chain sourcing is consistent with the operations management modeling literature. An

early formulation of the problem is due to Cohen and Lee (1989), who introduced a constrained

optimization model that derived both inbound and outbound material flows as well as customer

and supplier sourcing and production capacity utilization. An interesting observation in this

paper is the discussion of particular component strategies associated with a firm¡¯s overall global

supply chain strategy. These component strategies include:

Plant Charter Strategies

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Consolidation at either a regional or global level for the full product line. This strategy

has important implications for market, product quality and customer service.

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Product Focus which specializes for a particular class of products and which leverages

economies of scale and avoids diseconomies of scope. Distribution costs will increase

under this strategy.

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