Tale of Two Markets: Single-Family vs. Multifamily ...
Tale of Two Markets: Single-Family vs. Multifamily
Construction
Housing Finance Policy Center Data Talk July 13, 2016
Speakers: Paul Emrath, Greg Willett, and Jamie Woodwell
Tale of Two Markets A. Single-Family Construction
Urban Institute Data Talk Series July 13, 2016
Paul Emrath Vice President of Survey and Housing Policy Research National Association of Home Builders
Outline
3
? Housing starts / NAHB's latest forecast ? Supply constraints / costs inhibiting single-family production ? Role of government regulation ? Supply vs. demand for housing in different price ranges
Total Housing Starts Since World War II
(in thousands)
2,400 2,200 2,000 1,800 1,600 1,400 1,200 1,000
800 600
400
200 0
Annual Starts Worst Pre-2008 Recession
1946 1948 1950 1952 1954 1956 1958 1960 1962 1964 1966 1968 1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014
4
Single-Family Housing Starts
Rising, but still well below normal
2,000 Thousands of units, SAAR
1,800
1,600
1,400
1,200 1,000
80% fall
800
2000-2003 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
1,343,000 "Normal"
620,000
647,000
4%
713,000
10%
794,000
11%
916,000
15%
1,042,000
14%
2016Q1: 59% of "Normal"
5
2018Q4: 81% of "Normal"
600
Trough to Current:
400
Mar 09 = 353,000 May 16 = 764,000
+116% 200
0 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18
Multifamily Housing Starts
6
Back to normal
550 Thousands of units, SAAR
500
450
400
Avg=344,000
350
300
250
1995-2003 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
331,000 "Normal"
308,000
355,000
15%
395,000
12%
376,000
-5%
383,000
2%
368,000
-4%
2016Q1: 107% of "Normal"
2018Q4: 110% of "Normal"
200
76% fall
150
100
Trough to Current: 4th Q 09 = 82,000
50
1st Q 16 = 361,000
+340%
0
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18
Why Hasn't Single-family Production
7
Recovered Further and Faster?
Supply bottlenecks: Availability and price of lots / labor Especially in key locations / with key skills
Regulation: Difficult to get development approved in some jurisdictions
Fees, restrictions, etc. drive up costs
Share of Builders Reporting Labor Shortages Highest Since 2000 8
Economy was very strong consistently in the late 1990s
Current shortage especially severe relative to housing starts
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