European vehicle market statistics 2020/21

EUROPEAN VEHICLE MARKET STATISTICS

Pocketbook 2020/21

Table of contents

1 Introduction

2

2 Number of vehicles

10

3 Fuel consumption&CO2

22

4 Technologies&key parameters

32

5 Other emissions&on-road

46

Annex

Remarks on data sources

50

List of figures & tables

51

References

54

Abbreviations

55

Tables

56

An electronic version of this Pocketbook including more detailed statistical data is available online:

EUROPEAN VEHICLE MARKET STATISTICS 2020/21

1INTRODUCTION

The 2020/21 edition of European Vehicle Market Statistics offers a statistical portrait of passenger car, light commercial, and heavy-duty vehicle fleets in the European Union (EU) from 2001 to 2019. As in previous editions, the emphasis is on vehicle technologies, fuel consumption, and emissions of greenhouse gases and other air pollutants.

The following pages give a concise overview of data in subsequent chapters and also summarize the latest regulatory developments in the EU. More comprehensive tables are included in the annex, along with information on sources.

Number of vehicles In 2019, new car registrations in the EU slightly

increased to a level of 15.5 million from 15.1 million in 2018. Possibly due to consumer uncertainty concerning Brexit, sales in the United Kingdom (UK) continued to decrease (by 2% compared to 2018) while most other markets saw an increase in new car registrations. By far the strongest growth in vehicle sales took place in the sport utility vehicle (SUV) segment. Approximately 5.7 million new cars in 2019 were SUVs, 10 times as many as in 2001.

In the aftermath of the Dieselgate scandal, sales of new diesel cars dropped significantly. In 2011?2012, about 55% of newly registered cars in the EU were powered by diesel fuel, an all-time high. Since then, the market share of diesel vehicles decreased slowly, to 49% in 2016, but then declined more quickly, dropping to 31% in 2019. In France,

2

London 2025 (gasoline, diesel, HEV)

Paris 2024 (diesel) 2030 (gasoline)

Bergen 2025 (combustion engines)

Oslo 2024 (combustion engines)

Fig. 1-1

Select local government targets for combustionengine car bans as of April 2020

Created with ?

Amsterdam 2030 (combustion engines)

Brussels 2030 (diesel) 2035 (gasoline, LPG) Strasbourg 2025 (diesel) Milan 2027 (diesel)

Rome 2024 (diesel) 2030 (gasoline)

National governments with combustion-engine passenger car phase-out targets until 2040

Local governments with combustion-engine passenger car access ban targets until 2035

C40 cities with combustion-engine vehicle transition pledges by 2030

where the diesel market share used to be significantly higher than the EU average, the market share dropped from a high of 77% in 2008 to 34% by 2019. This recent decrease in diesel car sales to a large extent is likely linked to a loss in trust from consumers who are increasingly concerned about the threat of diesel bans in urban areas. As of now, a number of cities across Europe have announced their intention to ban diesel vehicles, beginning with Oslo, Paris, and Rome in 2024 (Wappelhorst, 2020) (Fig. 1-1).

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EUROPEAN VEHICLE MARKET STATISTICS 2020/21

Fuel consumption and CO2 emissions The official level of average carbon dioxide (CO2)

emissions from new passenger cars in the EU, as measured in the laboratory via the New European Driving Cycle (NEDC) type-approval test procedure, increased to 122 grams per kilometer (g/km) in 2019, which is 1 g/km higher than in the previous year (Tietge et al., 2020). As CO2 emissions and fuel consumption are directly linked, this implies a fleetwide average fuel efficiency of 5 liters/100 km.

After 2015 targets were met, and in the absence of targets before 2020, the increase in average CO2 emissions up to 2019 was not unexpected. As a result of the mandatory fleet-wide CO2 target of 95 g/km for 2020/21, new car emission levels began to quickly decrease from January 2020 onwards. By August 2020, the year-to-date CO2 level had reached about 103 g/km, with many manufacturers already (nearly) complying with their respective 2020 target levels (Mock and Tietge, 2020).

Plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs) are deployed by several manufacturers as a means of reducing their fleet CO2 emission levels and to avoid any penalty payments. While the CO2 level of PHEVs typically is around or below 50 g/km according to the NEDC, their average real-world fuel consumption and CO2 performance is two to four times higher (Fig. 1-2). Without a reform of the incentives for PHEVs, the real-world contribution for reducing CO2 emissions will therefore be much lower than suggested by the official figures (Pl?tz et al, 2020).

4

1Introduction

China

Germany

PHEV sample size (n = 6,870) (n = 1,457)

0 200 400 600 %

0 200 400 600 %

Norway (n = 1,514)

US & Canada (n = 84,068)

Netherlands (n = 10,800)

0 200 400 600 % 100 % Real-world and test cycle fuel consumption values are equal

Fig. 1-2

Distribution of the real-world fuel consumption of PHEVs, in relation to NEDC test cycle. 100% means real-world and NEDC test cycle fuel consumption values are equal (marked with vertical dashed lines)

0 200 400 600 %

0 200 400 600 %

Relation to NEDC fuel consumption

User group private company car



New mandatory CO2 standards for the years 2025 and 2030 were adopted in early 2019. For passenger cars, average fleet-wide emissions will have to be reduced by 15% by 2025 and by 37.5% by 2030, with respect to a 2021 baseline. CO2 emission levels for these new targets will be measured in the Worldwide Harmonized Light Vehicles Test Procedure (WLTP), which became mandatory for new vehicles in September 2018. For heavy-duty vehicles, CO2 emissions will have to be reduced by 15% by 2025 and 30% by 2030, with respect to a 2019 baseline (Rodr?guez, 2019). A regulatory proposal is expected from the European Commission in mid-2021 which will strengthen the CO2 targets for passenger cars and light-commercial vehicles to bring them in line with the EU's ambition to cut greenhouse gas emissions by at least 55% by 2030 (EC, 2020).

5

EUROPEAN VEHICLE MARKET STATISTICS 2020/21

Technologies and key technical parameters The vast majority of Europe's new cars are

powered by gasoline or diesel motors. The market share of hybrid electric vehicles (HEVs) in the EU was about 4% of all new car sales in 2019. Sales of HEVs increased in particular in Finland, where the market share increased to 11% in 2019. Toyota continues to dominate the market for HEVs in Europe, with about 60% of all new Toyota vehicles in 2019 being hybrid electric.

In 2019, PHEVs and battery-electric vehicles (BEVs) together made up about 3% of new vehicle registrations in the EU. Top EU markets include Sweden, where 7% of new sales were PHEVs, and the Netherlands, where 14% of new sales were BEVs. Outside the EU, sales of electric vehicles are particularly high in Norway, where 14% of new cars sold in 2019 were PHEV, 42% were BEV, and an additional 12% were HEV, approximately.

In terms of manufacturer brands, Volvo (8%) and BMW (5%) were among the top sellers of PHEVs in 2019. Nissan led sales of BEVs models, with 7% of the brand's sales being battery electric. Entering into the year 2020, the market dynamic changed notably, with electric vehicles jumping to a market share of 11% by August 2020 (Fig. 1-3).

1Introduction

Market share of electric vehicles (%) 12 10

8

6

Fig. 1-3

Plug-in hybrid electric vehicles

Market share of electric vehicles among all new passenger cars in Europe (monthly data from January 2019 onwards)

4

Battery

2

electric vehicles

0 2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

The average mass of new cars in the EU was comparable to the previous year, at 1,415 kg in 2019. Still, this is about 12% higher than in 2001. The average mass of both the German and Swedish new car fleets were significantly above the EU average, at 1,493 kg and 1,598 kg, respectively. In contrast, customers in the Netherlands opted for significantly lighter cars, with an average weight of 1,382 kg. The average engine power increased to 102 kW in 2019, which is about 37% more than in 2001.

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