Www.maxwell.syr.edu



Strategic Foresight for International Relations — Fall 2020Thursdays, 6:00pm to 8:40pmProfessor Sam Brannen Executive Master’s in International RelationsMaxwell-in-Washington/CSIS Office Hours: By appointment (sbrannen@ or 202-321-7897) Course Outline: This course will provide graduate students with a structured approach to thinking about the future of the international environment. It is a foundation in qualitative foresight methodologies with direct application to organizational strategic planning. It also provides a tour du horizon of the global trends shaping the world 5-10 years into the future and beyond. Through real-world case studies and classroom exercises, the course exposes students to the practical application of foresight methodologies to policymaking and resource decision-making. These methodologies are used by strategic planners in leading global intelligence organizations, national security bureaucracies, multinational corporations, and non-governmental organizations. Strategic foresight is an under-appreciated “hard” international relations skillset, particularly useful in navigating the profound global transitions underway that affect risk and competitiveness for countries, companies, and individuals. Course Goals: Students will grow their knowledge and professional capabilities in three ways. First, students will gain an appreciation of the relative advantages of qualitative foresight methodologies as an alternative to quantitative approaches—including advanced data analytics—as well as how quantitative and qualitative approaches can be blended. Second, students will gain an understanding of a range of qualitative foresight techniques, with applied study of trends analysis and scenario planning. Third, students will investigate a set of key trends shaping the current and future global operating environment for all organizations. These trends are divided into the broad areas of demographics and generations, geo-economics, resources, geopolitics, governance, communications, and technology.Course Structure: After explaining the recent history and evolution of various widely used forecasting and prediction methodologies, the course immerses students in two particularly powerful and proven approaches: trends analysis and scenario planning. Trends analysis encompasses the majority of course time because it includes both methodological study and substantive exploration of key strategic trend areas, which are foundational to the practice of global foresight. Students will deliver two major projects. First is a small group trends assessment on a chosen international relations topic. This will result in a trends assessment. That assessment is foundational to the final assignment, which requires each student to individually complete a deductive scenario planning exercise building on her or his understanding of key trends to explore future uncertainty.Class Design: Classes are seminar-style, with discussion sparked by framing lectures, guest speakers, discussion of assigned readings, and other multimedia elements. Class meetings seek to inspire further reflection and informal discussion beyond the classroom, growing understanding of strategic foresight that can be immediately applied to students’ professional activities. This course is also designed with the recognition of the rich talent and experience of the student cadre, with the goal of the professor to create a space for reasoned dialogue and mutual learning. The success of each class and the course overall will be predicated on the willingness of students to engage the material and each other. As the group dynamic evolves, it is the expectation of the professor that discussions will become increasingly vigorous and rewarding, and that each student will find a unique and constructive contributing voice.Course Requirements: To that end, students are expected to attend (and be on time) to every class and to have completed the readings/assignments in advance of meetings. In the rare cases this is not possible, students must be formally excused ahead of time and are expected to make up the work. Attendance and constructive participation will account for 30 percent of students’ final grade and will include an assessment of a student’s preparedness for each class to include the completion of assigned reading and homework assignments. The rest will involve two components — trends monitoring and contribution to a trends assessment (35%), and a final scenario planning exercise and report (35%) — each explained below.Trends Assessment: Students in small groups of 4-5 will conduct a structured trends analysis on an international relations topic. This task will be completed in a prescribed format and conducted on an iterative basis over a number of weeks, regularly sharing the results with the class and receiving constructive feedback from the professor and peers. Scenario Planning Report: Students will cap the course by using all they have learned about strategic foresight—including specific training in classic deductive “2x2” matrix scenario planning—to conduct their own scenario-based planning exercise and report. The scenario planning will be conducted on the basis of the previously completed trends assessment.Academic Integrity: The Syracuse University Academic Integrity Policy holds students accountable for the integrity of the work they submit. Students should be familiar with the Policy and know that it is their responsibility to learn about instructor and general academic expectations with regards to proper citation of sources in written work. The policy also governs the integrity of work submitted in exams and assignments as well as the veracity of signatures on attendance sheets and other verifications of participation in class activities. Serious sanctions can result from academic dishonesty of any sort. For more information and the complete policy, see the Academic Integrity Policy and Procedures PDF.Pandemic Considerations: Syracuse University's Stay Safe Pledge reflects the high value that we, as a university community, place on the well-being of our community members. This pledge defines norms for behavior that will promote community health and wellbeing. Classroom expectations include the following: wearing a mask that covers the nose and mouth at all times, maintaining a distance of six feet from others, and staying away from class if you feel unwell. Students who do not follow these norms will not be allowed to continue in face-to-face classes; repeated violations will be treated as violations of the Code of Student Conduct and may result in disciplinary action.?Course ReadingDavid Christian, Origin Story: A Big History of Everything (Little, Brown and Company 2018).P.W. Singer and August Cole, Ghost Fleet: A Novel of the Next World War (Houghton Mifflin Harcourt: 2015).Phil Tetlock and Dan Gardner, Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction (Crown Publishing 2015).*In addition to the above texts, students will be assigned other weekly reading assignments pertinent to the topic for that week, many of which are hyperlinked in the outline below but are subject to change at the discretion of the professor. Students will receive via email these assignments the day following each week’s live session.Course ScheduleWeek 1 (160 mins) — IntroductionStudent-professor introductions (30 mins)Overview of syllabus, readings & assignments (25 mins)Break (10 mins)Lecture: Seven Revolutions: The Forces of Change Shaping the World of 2025 (60 mins)Discussion (25 mins)Readings & assignments for next week (10 mins)Samuel Brannen, et al “Covid-19 Reshapes the Future”Joshua Rothman, “How William Gibson Keeps His Science Fiction Real”Stephen Johnson, “In 1983, Isaac Asimov predicted the world of 2019”Week 2 (160 mins) — Qualitative Strategic Foresight: What and How Key takeaways from first week (10 mins)Lecture on strategic foresight (60 mins)?What is strategic foresight?Quantitative vs. qualitative?Who does it?Who does it well?How can it apply to IR?Break (10 mins)Small group discussion on utility of foresight methodologies to navigating the Covid-19 pandemic (30 mins)Whole class discussion on foresight methodologies (30 mins)Readings & assignments for next week (10 mins)A.T. Kearney, “No One Saw it Coming”Olaf Helmer-Hirschberg, “Analysis of the Future: The Delphi Method”Week 3 (160 mins) — Strategic Foresight MethodologiesKey takeaways from first week (10 mins)Lecture on foresight methodologies (60 minutes) — Horizon scanning — Delphi method — Crowdsourcing and prediction markets — Simulation and war-gaming — Immersive reality — Scenario planning2. Break (10 minutes)3. Small group discussion on methodologies (30 minutes) — What works for what? — What works for what?Class report out on methodologies discussion (30 minutes)Readings & Assignments For Next Week (10 mins)Tetlock and Gardner, Superforecasting: The Art and Science of PredictionConerly, “ HYPERLINK "" \l "2134f4995205" Superforecasters Predict Vaccine Next Year”Week 4 Lesson Plan (160 mins) — Biases and SuperforecastingSmall group discussion on Tetlock book (30 mins)Whole class discussion on Tetlock book (30 mins)Break (10 mins)Lecture and group exercise: biases and limits to forecasting (60 mins)Forecasting exercise description and first attempt (40 mins)Readings & Assignments For Next Week (10 mins)UK Ministry of Defence, “Global Strategic Trends: Sixth Edition”U.S. National Intelligence Council “The Paradox of Progress”Week 5 (160 mins) — Trends AnalysisRevisit predictions from last week (15 mins)What changed between last week and this week?What biases did you exhibit in your prediction last week?Guest lecture on strategic trends from current or former government official (60 mins)Break (10 mins)Global trends discussion (30 mins)What is a trend?Which trends are more reliable/easier to forecast??Which trends are more difficult?Small group exercise (30 mins)Trends analysisReadings & Assignments For Next Week (10 mins)UN, “World Population Prospects: 2019 Revision”Pew Research, “The Whys and Hows of Generation Research”Week 6 (160 mins): Demographics and Generational CohortsKey takeaways from last week (10 mins)2. Lecture/discussion on demographics (45 mins)Global population outlook to 2050Geographies of high vs. low population growthUrbanizationGlobal aging3. Part 1 group exercise: assessing demographic impacts on national futures (30 mins)4. Break (10 mins)5. Lecture/discussion: Understanding generational changes/shifts (45 mins)“Generations make history and history makes generations”Generations in the United States6. Small group exercise: assessing demographics and generations of assigned countries (45 mins)China, Germany, India, and BrazilWhat is the country’s demographic structure and what does that suggest about its national power?What do we know about the characteristics of its dominant adult generations?7. Readings & assignments for next week (10 mins)—PWC “The World in 2050”—Jennifer Harrison and Jake Sullivan “America Needs a New Economic Philosophy”—Goldman Sachs “Dreaming with BRICs: The Path to 2050”Week 7: GeoeconomicsKey takeaways from last week (10 mins)2. Lecture/discussion on macroeconomics and global markets (45 mins)G7, G20, G2, or GZero?Shift of global economic power to AsiaFuture of global trade and finance: globalization or fragmentation?3. Part 1 group exercise: predictions and projections (15 mins)4. Break (10 mins)5. Lecture/discussion: market shocks (45 mins)From the 2008 Global Financial Crisis to Covid-19US-China trade war6. Part 2 group exercise: what matters more: Covid-19 or U.S.-China trade tensions? (25 mins)7. Readings & assignments for next week (10 mins)Read: BP “Energy Outlook 2020 [to be released on 14 Sept]”Food and Agriculture Organization “The Future of Food and Agriculture: Trends and Challenges” Food and Agriculture Organization “The Future of Food and Agriculture: Trends and Challenges” Week 8: Food, Water, Energy, and Climate Change1. Key takeaways from last week (10 mins)2. Guest lecture: energy and climate change to 2050 (45 mins)3. Part 1 group exercise: predictions and projections (15 mins)4. Break (10 mins)5. Guest lecture: meeting global food demand in 2050 (45 mins)6. Part 2 group exercise: how tech can bend the curve (25 mins)7. Readings & Assignments For Next Week (10 mins) HYPERLINK "" 2020 Edelman Trust Barometer UpdateRobert Blackwill and Thomas Wright, “The End of World Order and American Foreign Policy”Freedom House, “Freedom in the World 2020: A Leaderless Struggle for Democracy”Brannen, et al, “The Age of Mass Protests: Understanding an Escalating Global Trend”Week 9: Geopolitics & Governance1. Key takeaways from last week (10 mins)2. Lecture/discussion: changing world order (45 mins)What is world order?Bipolarity, unipolarity, multipolarity and apolarity3. Part 1 group exercise: predictions and projections (15 mins)4. Break (10 mins)5. Lecture/discussion: Trust in Society (70 mins)Comparative trust across countriesDecline of Democracy7. Readings & assignments for next week (10 mins)— Tim Urban, “The AI Revolution: The Road to Superintelligence”Klaus Schwab, “The Fourth Industrial Revolution: what it means, how to respond”Week 10: Emerging Technologies1. Key takeaways from last week (10 mins)2. Guest lecture: artificial intelligence (45 mins)3. Part 1 group exercise: hypothesizing AI’s impact (15 mins)4. Break (10 mins)5. Lecture: other emerging technologies— Biotechnology— Internet of things — Robotics— Additive manufacturing6. Part 2 group exercise: unpacking 4IR impacts on developed vs. emerging markets (25 mins)7. Readings & assignments for next week (10 mins)— Read: TBDWeek 11: Information1. Key takeaways from last week (10 mins)2. Guest lecture: misinformation and disinformation (60 mins)3. Part 1 group exercise: understanding information silos/bubbles (15 mins)4. Break (10 mins)5. Part 2 Group Exercise: Adapting institutions to a changing information environment (55 mins)6. Readings & assignments for next week (10 mins)— Rafael Ramírez, et. al, “Using Scenario Planning to Reshape Strategy”— J. Peter Scoblic, “Learning from the Future”— A.T Kearney “America@250” — Scenarios from CSIS “Twin Pillars”Week 12: Class Trends Assessment Final Presentation and Scenario Planning1. Key takeaways from last week (10 mins)2. Class trends presentation (90 mins)3. Break (10 mins)4. Lecture/discussion: scenario planning (40 mins)— Why scenarios?— Deductive vs. inductive5. Readings & Assignments For Next Week (10 mins)— Read: TBD Scenario SetWeek 13: Scenario Planning 2Key takeaways from last week (10 mins)Lecture: “Deductive scenario planning” (50 mins)The “2x2” matrixCreating narratives and mixing inductive pointsUses in strategic planningBreak (10 mins)Small group exercise part 1: create a scenario (30 mins)Reassemble country trends groups Catalog 3 key “revolutions”/drivers and identify indicators for each plus implicationsSmall group report out (20 mins)Small group exercise part 2: create a scenario (30 minsFrom drivers list, identify principal axes 2x2 matrixCreate 2x2 matrixGroup discussion/report out (10 mins)Week 14: Course Conclusion and Final Assignments1. Key takeaways from last week (10 mins)2. In-class scenario workshop with peer and professor feedback (120 mins)3. Parting words (30 mins) ................
................

In order to avoid copyright disputes, this page is only a partial summary.

Google Online Preview   Download