Egg Markets Overview - Agricultural Marketing Service

x

Egg Markets Overview

A weekly publication of the USDA AMS Livestock and Poultry Program, Agricultural Analytics Division

Wholesale prices for cartoned shell eggs have the wind at their back and are posting sharp advances as the Thanksgiving marketing season is in full force. Product has cleared into marketing channels to support holiday demand and marketers are focused on restocking depleted supplies as the start of the December cookie season is just a few short weeks away. Offerings are light and trading is active on very good interest. Wholesale prices for graded loose eggs are likewise posting sharp increases as offerings are tight and held with confidence while supplies are short and in need of rebuilding. Interest is good and trading is moving at a moderate to active pace. The volume of trailer load sales this week decreased 10% from last week signaling a brief slowdown as the holiday passes. Prices for national trading of trucklot quantities of graded, loose, White Large shell eggs increased $0.27 to $0.986 per dozen with a higher undertone. The wholesale price on the New York market for Large cartoned shell eggs delivered to retailers rose $0.31 to $1.51 per dozen with a firm undertone. The Midwest wholesale price for Large, white, shell eggs delivered to warehouses gained $0.11 to $0.98 per dozen and prices paid to producers in the Midwest for Large cartoned shell eggs rose $0.35 to $1.14 per dozen, both with a higher undertone. The California benchmark for Large shell eggs rose $0.35 to $1.92 per dozen with a higher undertone. Delivered prices on the California wholesale loose egg market increased $0.29 to $1.694 per dozen with a higher undertone.

Consumer demand for shell eggs is finally responded favorably to retailer feature campaigns promoting shell eggs for Thanksgiving baking and posted a sharp improvement. Holiday-focused promotions are out in force in retail outlets across the country and consumers are taking advantage of deals as they make their last-minute shopping runs this weekend ahead of the holiday. This sharp rise in demand is typical of the season and follows similar trends in recent years although demand is rising slightly ahead of the pace of 2020 and well ahead of that for 2019.

Weekly Loose Shell Egg, Large, White, National Index (f.o.b. dock, cents per dozen)

270 2019

225

180

135

90

45

0

J

F

M

A

Source: USDA AMS L&P Agricultural Analytics

M

J

J

A

S

O

Weekly U.S. Table Egg Demand (Shell Egg Demand Index)

2019

40

30

20

10

0

-10

-20

J

F

M

A

Source: USDA AMS L&P Agricultural Analytics

M

J

J

A

S

O

November 19, 2021

2020

2021

N

D

2020

2021

N

D

Promotional activity for conventional shell eggs in retail outlets rises into Thanksgiving week targeting last-minute shoppers. The average ad price rises sharply, up $0.34 to $1.37 per dozen. Retail egg purchases into this week were estimated to be unchanged as marketers are already looking past the holiday. Promotional activity for specialty shell eggs increases from last week's pace with cage-free and organic offerings leading all types. Feature activity for UEP-defined cage-free shell eggs increases and accounts for 43% of all shell egg types on feature. The average ad price declines $0.28 to $2.36 per dozen and the average ad price spread between 12-packs of Large caged eggs and UEP cage-free eggs narrows by $0.61 per dozen to a spread of $0.99 per dozen.

Relationship Between Shell Egg Retail Ad Price and Demand (SEDI)

Advertised prices to consumers by U.S. supermarkets for conventional caged shell eggs $1.60 $1.50 $1.40 $1.30 $1.20 $1.10 $1.00 $0.90

The overall inventory of shell eggs decreased 9.5% and the nation-wide inventory of Large eggs saw an 11% drop. The inventory of Large eggs in the key Midwest production region also declined by 11% as eggs cleared through the marketing channel to support holiday demand. Retail purchases into this week remained unchanged as current supply is

$0.80

$0.70

$0.60 J

F

M

A

Source: USDA AMS L&P Agricultural Analytics

M

J

J

A

S

weekly

Source: USDA AMS Agricultural Analytics Division

sale price per dozen shell egg demand

Price 2021

Demand 2021 20

15

10

5

0

-5

-10

-15

O

N

D

Egg Markets Overview

sufficient to support ongoing business. The inventory share of Large class shell eggs decreased to a 48.5% share of all shell egg stocks on inventory at the start of the week. Stocks of cage-free eggs were decreased 9.5% to support active retail promotional activity while stocks of nutritionally-enhanced shell eggs gained 4% to support features breaking mid-week. Breaking stock inventories declined 4% as spot market offerings remain less available as carton business peaks. Schedules remain at a full-time pace but the calendar is nearing the seasonal production decline into the holiday-shortened production week. Total table egg production for the week was unchanged from the prior week but down slightly from the prior year for an approximate deficit of 459,000 cases.

Wholesale prices for breaking stock in the Central States remained steady at $0.67 per dozen through the week with a steady undertone as carton business is peaking and spot market offerings, currently light to moderate, are expected to become more available in the near-term. Supplies are light to moderate and demand is moderate. Trading is moderate to active as breakers look to supplement their owned production. Breaking schedules remained full-time ahead of the holiday but are expected to slow into next week. The volume of eggs processed over the past week was down slightly and remained just under a 31% share of weekly table egg production. Production of whole egg was down 2% while production of whites was about unchanged. Yolk production declined 1.5% while the production of dried eggs rose 1% and inedible egg increased by nearly 4%. Breaking yields without inedible were down slightly to 40.29 pounds per case broken.

Wholesale prices for whole certified liquid whole eggs are higher with a firm to higher undertone. Offerings are light to moderate. The wholesale price for frozen whole egg products is down $0.01 to $1.01 per pound and the price for liquid whites is steady at $0.66 per pound. The undertone is firm. Offerings and supplies are light to moderate for moderate to good demand. The pace of trading is moderate to active. Wholesale prices for whole dried egg was unchanged at $4.00 per pound and prices for dried albumen were steady at $4.90 per pound. Prices for dried yolk were up $0.10 to $3.25 per pound. The undertone is steady. Offerings and supplies are light to moderate. Demand is moderate to good. Trading is moderate to active.

According to NASS, the September monthly volume of frozen eggs in storage was down 6% from August and 33% below the 2020 level. Stocks of whole frozen egg decreased 9% from last month and remained well under last year's level at a 45% deficit. The share of whole egg stocks lost 1% to 39% of total frozen stocks. Stocks of frozen yolk declined 42%, 40% under last year's level. Exports of liquid yolk were up 20% in August which helped to reduce stocks. Stocks of frozen egg whites were down 11%, 28% under last year. Stocks of unclassified eggs were unchanged and 22% below 2020. The share of unclassified frozen stocks gained 3% to 50% of all frozen egg products in storage.

Cage-free commitments as of October 2021 remain about unchanged, requiring 66.7 billion cage-free eggs per year to meet 100% of needs from an approximate cage-free flock of 221 million hens (69% of the U.S. non-organic flock), indicating a shortage of 137.5 million hens from the current non-organic cage-free flock of 83.1 million hens. The average lay rate for non-organic cage-free production is currently estimated at 82.8%.

Source: USDA AMS Agricultural Analytics Division

Weekly Eggs Processed (30-dozen cases)

1.8

1.7

million 30-dozen cases

1.6

1.5

1.4

1.3

1.2

1.1

J

F

M

A

Source: USDA AMS L&P Agricultural Analytics

M

J

J

2019

2020

2021

A

S

O

N

D

total -0.7%

Eggs Processed Week-to-Week Change share whole whites yolks dried

-0.3% -2.3% 0.2% -1.5% 1.1%

inedible 3.6%

Central States Breaking Stock Eggs (cents per dozen)

90

75

60

45

30

15

J

F

M

A

Source: USDA AMS L&P Agricultural Analytics

M

J

J

week

2019

2020

2021

A

S

O

N

D

Large Shell Egg Percentage of Inventory v. Demand (SEDI)

LG% 21 58%

LG% 20

54%

Large peercentage

50%

46%

42%

38%

J

F

M

A

Source: USDA AMS L&P Agricultural Analytics

M

J

J

A

S

Demand 21

O

N

Demand 20 40 30 20 10 0 -10 -20

D

Egg Markets Overview

Shell Egg demand

Shell Eggs Market Price Comparisons

(as of November 19, 2021)

(National Index on a loose-egg basis, all other prices for cartoned eggs; LG White avg prices in cents per dozen)

sector markup

16%

-14%

4%

34%

prior current

loose

carton

carton

carton

carton

98.6

114.0

98.0

102.0 137.0

national index producer

delivered delivered store retail on ad

warehouse

door

Producer, warehouse, & store door = MW; retail no sale NY market; retail on sale Nat'l Retail Feature; loose eggs include minimal

Source: USDA AMS Agricultural Analytics Division

Key Egg Markets Overview

19-Nov % Change 12-Nov

SHELL EGGS (Large, White, conventional in cents per dozen)

National, Loose, (f.o.b. dock prices)

98.61

37% 72.11

New York, Cartoned (price to retailers)

151.00

26% 120.00

Midwest, Cartoned (price dlvrd to warehouse)

98.00

13% 87.00

California, Cartoned, benchmark

192.00

22% 157.00

Recent History 5-Nov 29-Oct 22-Oct

59.54 103.00 87.00 143.00

56.61 102.00 87.00 143.00

57.79 102.00 92.00 153.00

15-Oct

61.21 106.00 98.00 163.00

National Retail Shell Egg (avg. ad price in dollars per dozen)

Conventional, Large, White

1.37

Cage-Free, Large, Brown/White

2.36

33% 1.03 0.89 1.41 0.99 1.16 -11% 2.64 2.43 2.50 2.32 2.48

EGG PRODUCTS (f.o.b. dock prices; dollars per pound)

Central States Breaking Stock (dlvd prices per doz) 67.00

Whole Frozen Eggs

101.00

Whole Dried Eggs

4.00

Processed Share of Weekly Egg Production

30.8%

0% -1% 0% -0.3%

67.00 102.00

4.00 31.1%

59.00 102.00

4.00 31.3%

59.00 102.00

3.85 31.7%

59.00 102.00

3.85 31.6%

62.00 102.00

3.85 31.8%

SHELL EGG DEMAND INDICATOR (no units) Source: USDA AMS Agricultural Analytics

4.7

10.4 -5.7 -3.7 -5.2 -6.7 -5.5

Key Shell Egg Markets Snapshot - 2021

(Large, White, Conventional Shell Eggs in cents per dozen)

National, Loose, (f.o.b. dock prices) New York, Cartoned (price to retailers) Midwest, Cartoned (price dlvrd to warehouse) 1 California, Cartoned, benchmark Central States Breaking Stock (delivered prices) 1 Whole Frozen Egg Products (f.o.b. dock prices) Whole Dried Egg Products (f.o.b. dock prices) Natl Average Retail Ad Price - Conventional Natl Average Retail Ad Price - Cage-free2 Shell Egg Demand Indicator 1 mostly high; 2 non-organic

19-Nov 98.6 151.0 98.0 192.0 67.0 101.0 4.00 1.37 2.36 4.7

Change 37% 26% 13% 22% 0% -1% 0% 33% -11% 10.4

12-Nov 57.6 120.0 87.0 157.0 90.0 102.0 4.00 1.03 2.64 -5.7

2021 High 113.5 12-Mar 152.0 10-Mar 135.0 15-Mar 200.0 30-Aug 73.0 12-Mar 102.0 08-Oct 4.00 05-Nov 1.59 02-Apr 2.77 02-Jul 18.1 01-Jan

2021 Low 44.6 10-Jun 90.0 10-Jun 75.0 14-Jun 123.0 14-Jun 34.0 08-Jan 63.0 08-Jan 2.90 15-Jan 0.78 29-Jan 1.84 01-Jan -14.2 05-May

Egg Markets Overview

 ................
................

In order to avoid copyright disputes, this page is only a partial summary.

Google Online Preview   Download