News release - Afrobarometer
[Pages:5]Harare, Zimbabwe 14 September 2022
News release
Young Zimbabweans far less likely than their elders to be registered and to intend to vote in 2023
Large majorities of Zimbabweans say they are registered to vote and intend to cast their ballots in the 2023 elections, a new Afrobarometer survey shows.
But young citizens are considerably less likely than their elders to report being registered, and only slightly more than half of 18- to 35-year-olds say they will probably or definitely vote.
As reported by citizens, both registration rates and intention to vote also vary considerably by province.
Among respondents who are registered to vote, a resounding majority say they will probably or definitely cast their votes in the upcoming elections.
Key findings
Nearly seven in 10 Zimbabwean adults (68%) say they are registered to vote in the
2023 elections (Figure 1).
o In addition, one-quarter (24%) say they intend to register, while 6% say they do not.
The middle-aged (83% of those aged 36-55 years) are more likely to be registered
than either their younger counterparts (54% of those aged 18-35 years) or the older generation (72% of those aged 56 years or more) (Figure 2).
o Slightly more women (70%) than men (66%) say they are registered to vote.
o Mashonaland Central has a larger proportion of registered adults (89%) than any other province.
Looking at those who are not registered to vote (Figure 3), more than half of
Masvingo (58%) and Bulawayo/Mat North/Mat South (53%) residents fall into this category. Rural residents (32%) are more likely to report not having registered to vote than their urban counterparts (25%), as are the youth (41%) compared to the middleaged (17%) and the elderly (27%).
o Economically better-off citizens (38%) are more likely to report being unregistered to vote than those experiencing moderate lived poverty (29%) or high lived poverty (22%).
o While only 17% of citizens with post-secondary education report being unregistered to vote, about twice as many of those with primary or no formal education (36%) or with secondary schooling (33%) say the same.
Two-thirds (67%) of citizens say they will "definitely" vote in the 2023 harmonised
elections. In addition, 19% say they will "probably" vote, and 7% they may or may not do so, while the rest say they will "probably" (2%) or "definitely" (5%) not vote (Figure 4).
Midlands (80%) and Masvingo (78%) have the largest shares of "definite" voters, while
the smallest proportion is recorded in Bulawayo/Mat North/Mat South (57%) (Figure 5).
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o The poorest citizens (75%) are more likely to say they will vote than their better-off counterparts (59%-66%). Young respondents (52%) are considerably less likely to indicate an intention to vote than their elders (77%-80%).
Overwhelming majorities of citizens who say they are registered (97%) or intend to
register (86%) say they will probably/definitely vote (Figure 6).
Afrobarometer surveys
Afrobarometer is a pan-African, non-partisan survey research network that provides reliable data on African experiences and evaluations of democracy, governance, and quality of life. Eight survey rounds in up to 39 countries have been completed since 1999. Round 9 surveys (2021/2022) are currently underway. Afrobarometer's national partners conduct face-toface interviews in the language of the respondent's choice.
The Afrobarometer team in Zimbabwe, led by the Mass Public Opinion Institute (MPOI), interviewed 1,200 adult citizens of Zimbabwe between 28 March and 10 April 2022. A sample of this size yields country-level results with a margin of error of +/-3 percentage points at a 95% confidence level. Previous surveys were conducted in Zimbabwe in 1999, 2004, 2005, 2009, 2012, 2014, 2017, and 2021.
Charts
Figure 1: Registered to vote in the 2023 elections? | Zimbabwe | 2022
100%
80%
Yes, I am registered
68% 60%
No, but l intend to register
40%
No, l do not intend to
register
20%
24%
Don't know/Refused to answer
6%
0%
3%
Respondents were asked: Are you registered to vote in the upcoming 2023 harmonised elections?
Figure 2: Registered to vote in the 2023 elections | by demographic group | Zimbabwe | 2022
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Average
Masvingo Bulawayo/Mat North/Mat South
Midlands Mashonaland East
Harare Mashonaland West
Manicaland Mashonaland Central
Women Men
56+ years 36-55 years 18-35 years
0%
68%
42% 46%
63% 66% 75% 83% 83% 89%
70% 66%
72% 83%
54%
20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Respondents were asked: Are you registered to vote in the upcoming 2023 harmonised elections? (% who say they are registered to vote)
Figure 3: Not registered to vote in the 2023 elections | by demographic group | Zimbabwe | 2022
Average Mashonaland Central
Harare Mashonaland West
Manicaland Mashonaland East
Midlands Bulawayo/Mat North/Mat South
Masvingo
29%
12% 13%
17% 17%
33% 35%
53% 58%
Urban Rural Men
Women 18-35 years 36-55 years
56+ years No or low lived poverty Moderate lived poverty
High lived poverty Primary/No formal education
Secondary education Post-secondary education
0%
25% 32%
29% 30%
41% 17%
27% 38%
29% 22%
36% 33% 17% 20% 40% 60%
80% 100%
Respondents were asked: Are you registered to vote in the upcoming 2023 harmonised elections? (% who say "No, but I intend to register" or "No I do not intend to register")
Figure 4: Likelihood of voting in the 2023 elections | Zimbabwe | 2022
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67%
19%
7% 2%5%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
I will definitely vote
I will probably vote
Maybe yes, maybe no
I will probably not vote I will definitely not vote
Respondents were asked: How likely are you to vote in the 2023 harmonised elections?
Figure 5: Likelihood of voting in the 2023 elections | by demographic group | Zimbabwe | 2022
Post-secondary education Secondary education
Primary/No formal education
67% 66%
71%
56+ years 36-55 years 18-35 years
77% 80%
52%
High lived poverty Moderate lived poverty No or low lived poverty
75% 66% 59%
Midlands Masvingo Mashonaland Central Mashonaland East
Harare Mashonaland West
Manicaland Bulawayo/Mat North/Mat South
0%
80% 78% 71% 66% 66% 63% 62% 57%
20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Respondents were asked: How likely are you to vote in the 2023 harmonised elections? (% who say "I will definitely vote")
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Figure 6: Likelihood of voting in the 2023 elections, by registration status | Zimbabwe | 2022
100%
97%
86%
80%
60%
40%
20%
0% Will probably/ definitely vote
2% Maybe
1%
Will probably/Will probably/
definitely not definitely
vote
vote
11% Maybe
3%
Will probably/ definitely not
vote
Among those who are registered
Among those who say they intend to register
Respondents were asked: Are you registered to vote in the upcoming 2023 harmonised elections? How likely are you to vote in the 2023 harmonised elections?
For more information, please contact:
Mass Public Opinion Institute E.V. Masunungure Telephone: +263-242-771358 Email: info@.zw
Visit us online at:
Follow our releases on #VoicesAfrica.
/Afrobarometer
@Afrobarometer
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