The Next Recession - Moody's Analytics

The Next Recession

Mark Zandi, Chief Economist Steve Cochrane, Chief APAC Economist Ryan Sweet, Director of Real-Time Economics XXXXX, Title

September 3, 2019

Moody's Analytics operates independently of the credit ratings activities of Moody's Investors Service. We do not comment on credit ratings or potential rating changes, and no opinion or

analysis you hear during this presentation can be assumed to reflect those of the ratings agency.

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Agenda

1. Sizing Up the Recession Threat 2. Recession Triggers 3. Road to Recession 4. Policy Response 5. How Severe a Downturn

September 2019

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1

Sizing Up the Recession Threat

Recession Risks Are Rising...

Recovery

Expansion

Greece

Egypt South Africa

Brazil

Russia

Turkey Italy

Recession

Saudi Arabia

Chile

Indonesia

Vietnam Thailand

India Australia

France

Malaysia Singapore

U.S. South Korea

Canada

UK Japan

Israel

Spain Germany

China Slowdown

September 2019

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