Commodity Price Prediction using An Artificial Prediction ...
[Pages:24]Commodity Price Prediction using An Artificial Prediction Market based Approach
Rohith D. Vallam Ramasuri Narayanam Gyana R. Parija
July 18th, 2017
Agenda
Prediction Markets: Introduction Problem Definition Artificial Prediction Market: A Vanilla Version Results & Comparison Next Steps
2 India Research Lab
? 2016 IBM Corporation
How do people predict ?
Opinion Polls
Delphi methods
Peer Prediction Methods
Wagering mechanisms
Source of images :
3 India Research Lab
Prediction Markets (Our Focus)
? 2016 IBM Corporation
What is a Prediction Market?
Tool for collecting and aggregating opinion using market principles
Price: probability of event occurring
Iowa Electronic Markets: 2008 US Democratic Convention Market
Value: leading indicator, expose hidden information
Pay-off: monetary, reputational, indirect
Accuracy: better than conventional forecasting1
Clinton Obama
Image:
Defintion: A place where information is aggregated via market (or other) mechanisms for the primary purpose of forecasting events, or the probability that an event will occur
1Source: Arrow, K.J. et al "The Promise of Prediction Markets" Science, 2008, 320, 5878, 877-878
? 2017 IBM Corporation
Prediction Markets: Scientific Background
? 2017 IBM Corporation
When to use Prediction Markets?
Complexity (ecosystem) Uncertainty Many decision points Clear outcomes Market liquidity Diversity of opinion
? 2017 IBM Corporation
Advantages of Prediction Markets with Other Approaches of Information Aggregation
? 2017 IBM Corporation
Prediction Markets At Work: Consumer Prediction Markets
Hollywood Stock Exchange
Viral Loop (Prediction market mobile app)
Intrade Prediction Market
? 2017 IBM Corporation
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