Seasonal Climate Forecast: October-December 2021
Seasonal Climate Forecast
September ¨C November 2024
Issued: August 15, 2024
Contact: ODF Lead Meteorologist Pete Parsons
503-945-7448 or peter.gj.parsons@odf.
ODA Team: Diana Walker; Andy Zimmerman; Jenn Ambrose; Taylor Harding
ODF Team: Julie Vondrachek; Kristin Cody
El Ni?o vs La Ni?a
(SST Patterns in the Tropical Pacific Ocean)
Courtesy:
Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs)
Animated (PowerPoint only) SSTs (top) / Anomalies (bottom)
ENSO-neutral conditions are present
Courtesy:
El Ni?o Southern Oscillation (ENSO)
Current Status and Forecast
The July Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) was -0.7, which reflected
the recent transition to ENSO-neutral conditions.
?
The May ¨C July Oceanic Ni?o Index (ONI) fell to +0.2¡ãC, which
reflects cooling of central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean sea surface
temperatures ¡°SSTs¡±¡into the ENSO-neutral range.
?
NOAA¡¯s Climate Prediction Center (CPC) predicts continued cooling
of central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean SSTs with a transition from
ENSO-neutral to La Ni?a during the September ¨C November period.
?
Note: This ¡°analog¡± forecast does not consider NOAA¡¯s ENSO forecast. It uses
only historical and current ENSO conditions to find ¡°analog years¡± that most-closely
match the recent evolution of the ENSO state.
Southern Oscillation Index (SOI)
(1957-1958; 1965-1966; 1991-1992)
La Ni?a
Top 3 June
SOI analogs
reflect
ENSO-neutral
conditions
ENSO-neutral
El Ni?o
July 2024 SOI
(-0.7) reflects
ENSO-neutral
conditions
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