IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON FARMING SYSTEMS AND ...

IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON FARMING SYSTEMS AND LIVELIHOODS IN THE NEAR EAST AND NORTH AFRICA

Regional Initiative on Small-scale Family Farming for the Near East and North Africa

IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON FARMING SYSTEMS AND LIVELIHOODS IN THE NEAR EAST AND NORTH AFRICA

With a special focus on small-scale family farming

Phoebe Lewis Agronomist FAO Regional Office for the Near East and North Africa (RNE) Mohamed Abdel Monem Senior Advisor (Water and Environment) FAO Regional Office for the Near East and North Africa (RNE)

FAO Supervising Officer: Alfredo Impiglia Delivery Manager for the Regional Initiative on Small-scale Family Farming FAO Regional Office for the Near East and North Africa (RNE)

FOOD AND AGRICULTURE ORGANIZATION OF THE UNITED NATIONS CAIRO, 2018

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?FAO/Soliman Ahmed

Contents

Foreword_____________________________________________________________________ V Acknowledgements ____________________________________________________________ VI Executive Summary____________________________________________________________ VIII

Introduction___________________________________________________________________1 Method_______________________________________________________________________3

Identifying major farming systems_______________________________________________3 Defining small-scale farmers____________________________________________________5 Conceptual framework for assessing the impact of climate change on farming systems and small-scale farmers________________________________________________________6 Recognizing complexity and high location specificity using CIFS maps_________________7 Categories of climate and non-climate stressors___________________________________7 Uncertainty analysis_________________________________________________________ 10 Climate Change Trends in the NENA region____________________________________ 11 Climate Change and Agriculture Sectors' Trends in the NENA region_____________ 17 Climate-Impacted Farming System Maps Approach_____________________________ 21 CIFS 1: Maghreb___________________________________________________________ 25 CIFS 2: Mashreq____________________________________________________________ 32 CIFS 3: Nile Valley (Egypt and Sudan)__________________________________________ 40 CIFS 4: North and West Iran__________________________________________________ 49 CIFS 5: Yemen_____________________________________________________________ 56 Socioeconomic and livelihood implications_____________________________________ 60 Conclusions and policy recommendations______________________________________ 68 Closing the science-policy gap________________________________________________ 68 Assessing the impacts_______________________________________________________ 69 Managing agricultural transformations_________________________________________ 69 Managing livelihood transitions_______________________________________________ 72 Contextualizing policies______________________________________________________ 72 References__________________________________________________________________ 76

III

CLIMATE CHANGE AND SMALL-SCALE FARMING IN THE NEAR EAST AND NORTH AFRICA REGION

Figures, Tables and Boxes

Figures Figure 1: Temperature in base period (1986-2005) with farming systems overlaid_______9 Figure 2: Precipitation in base period (1986-2005) with farming systems overlaid _______9 Figure 3: The global risks landscape 2018 ______________________________________ 15 Figure 4: NENA emissions by sub-sector ________________________________________ 19 Figure 5: Temperature Change in RCP 4.5 (2046-2065) with the farming systems overlaid___________________________________________________________________ 23 Figure 6: Temperature change in RCP 8.5 (2046-2065) with the farming systems Overlaid___________________________________________________________________ 23 Figure 7: Precipitation change in RCP 4.5 (2046-2065) with the farming systems overlaid___________________________________________________________________ 24 Figure 8: Precipitation change in RCP 8.5 (2046-2065) with the farming systems overlaid___________________________________________________________________ 24 Figure 9: Change in annual mean precipitation in the Maghreb under RCP 8.5 _______ 27 Figure 10: Change in annual mean precipitation in the Mashreq under RCP 4.5 ______ 34 Figure 11: Change in annual mean precipitation in the Mashreq under RCP 8.5 ______ 35 Figure 12: Dust plumes arising from points in Syria and North-west Iraq blow South-east in 2011 ___________________________________________________________________ 39 Figure 13: Change in annual mean temperature in Sudan under RCP 8.5 ____________ 42 Figure 14: Change in annual mean precipitation in Sudan under RCP 8.5 ___________ 42 Figure 15: Relative vulnerability of coastal deltas by the indicative population potentially displaced by current sea level trends to 2050 ___________________________________ 46 Figure 16: Change in annual mean temperature in Iran under RCP 8.5 ______________ 50 Figure 17: Change in annual mean precipitation in Iran under RCP 8.5______________ 51

Tables Table 1: Major farming systems of the NENA region________________________________4 Table 2: Summary of climate change impacts and responses by farming system_______ 62

Boxes Box 1: Considering natural resources in conflict and post-conflict peacebuilding______ 36 Box 2: Water-energy-food nexus ______________________________________________ 53 Box 3: Climate change in Oman ______________________________________________ 54

IV

Foreword

Achieving the Sustainable Development Goals of eradicating poverty (SDG 1), hunger (SDG 2) and clean water and sanitation (SDG 6) is not possible without directly addressing the impacts of climate change (SDG 13). Agriculture and food systems are on the forefront of this challenge and nowhere is this more evident than in the Near East and North Africa (NENA) region. Climate change is projected to increase temperatures and extreme weather events and reduce precipitation and weather predictability. While there will be variations based on local specificity, this will result in a general reduction of the production and productivity of both crops and livestock throughout the farming systems in the NENA region. These trends result in two interrelated challenges.

First, this will have major implications for hunger and poverty reduction given that 60 to 70 percent of the region's poor live in rural areas that are dependent on agriculture. Second, that small scale farmers supply around 80 percent of the region's agricultural production means that their ability to produce is directly correlated with the food security of the region. In this context, the impacts of climate change act as a risk-multiplier in a vulnerable region that is already hard pressed to maintain its food security because of a mixture of challenging factors, including natural resource scarcity, comparatively low agricultural productivity, and conflicts. These constraints are then met with rising consumer demands as the region's population grows and becomes more affluent.

Small-scale farmers' livelihoods are at risk due to their direct dependence on natural resources. Currently, these farmers are amongst the poorest and most marginalised in the region. They are disconnected from resources, markets, extension services and social protection systems, making them even more vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. Further, smallscale farmers that are currently living on the margins of productivity could be pushed over the edge. As such, the implications of climate change on small-scale farmers reaches deep into the very socio-economic fabric of the region. This will be the case especially as changing agricultural productivity reduces options for sustainable rural livelihoods, thereby creating incentives for distressed migration. Supporting these farmers to manage their production and productivity in a changing climate will therefore be essential alongside developing income diversification options to ensure sustainable livelihoods.

Given that they are the main domestic agricultural producers, the impacts of climate change on small-scale farmers extends beyond the farm to the food security of the region. This makes it even more important for policymakers to determine the most effective ways to support small-scale farmers to ensure that agricultural production and productivity can be managed under changing climate conditions and increasing uncertainty. Some areas will likely be shifted out of productive zones, which suggests that it will also be important to consider the impact these changes will have on agricultural investments and agricultural transformations.

V

CLIMATE CHANGE AND SMALL-SCALE FARMING IN THE NEAR EAST AND NORTH AFRICA REGION

Aware of this challenge, the governments of the NENA region have prioritised climate change at the FAO Regional Conferences for the Near East, most notably in 2012. In the regional report on NENA small-scale family farming trends that was subsequently developed by the Regional Initiative on Small-Scale Family Farming, the ability to adapt to climate change was identified as one of the major challenges facing these farmers. It was then the Regional Initiative for the Assessment of the Impact of Climate Change on Water Resources and SocioEconomic Vulnerability in the Arab Region (RICCAR) that provided the necessary climate change data.

In this context, this report aims to bring the findings of these two branches of work together to understand the implications of climate change for a key vulnerable group in the region. In so doing, it aims to bridge the gap between science and policy to create an understanding of where and how this research can be practically applied. It also aims to provide a high-level overview of the potential impacts of climate change on small-scale farmers to set a framework for more in depth analysis at the national and sub-national levels. This report is the first regional-level assessment that examines such impacts devolved to the farming system level using Climate Impacted Farming System (or CIFS) maps. It is important to generate this regional understanding to draw out common trends and identify priority areas for addressing climate change in the region.

Abdessalam Ould Ahmed FAO Assistant Director-General FAO Regional Office for the Near East and North Africa

VI

Acknowledgements

This study has been developed under the Regional Initiative on Small-scale Family Farming by Phoebe Lewis (Agronomist) and Mohamed Abdel Monem (Water and Environment Specialist), under the supervision of Alfredo Impiglia, Delivery Manager for the Regional Initiative on Small-scale Family Farming, FAO Regional Office for the Near East and North Africa (RNE). The authors would like to thank colleagues in the various FAO technical divisions, the Regional Office for the Near East and North Africa, as well as those in the region's country offices for their input and guidance throughout the development of this study. In particular, we would like to thank Pasquale Steduto, Jean-Marc Faur?s and Rima Al Azar for their time and input. Special thanks to Dr Mohamed Amin Abdullah who developed the Climate Impacted Farming Systems (CIFS) maps that formed the basis of this analysis. His time, persistence and efforts to amass data, develop the maps and provide continuous editing helped to form the basis of this report and are highly appreciated.

VII

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