National Weather Service



New Mission Need or Requirement RequestNWS Nationally-Standardized Risk/Threat Information for Weather HazardsDate: 09/28/2017CONTACT INFORMATIONPlease feel free to add additional contacts as necessary.Request OriginatorGreg SchoorGregory.M.Schoor@405-325-2209Office: AFS Severe, Fire, Public, and Winter Services BranchDate: 09/28/17Jessica SchauerJessica.Schauer@305-229-4476Office: AFS Marine, Tropical, and Tsunami Services BranchDate: 09/28/17Local Office / Management Concurrence (CaRDS Tier 1 Clearance)Michelle HawkinsMichelle.Hawkins@301-427-9374Office: AFS Severe, Fire, Public, and Winter Services BranchDate: 09/28/17Allison AllenAllison.Allen@301-427-9848Office: AFS Marine, Tropical, and Tsunami Services BranchDate: 09/28/17 1 Statement of Mission Need or Requirement1.1 Mission Need or RequirementNeed/Request Highlights:There is an increasing number of agency-produced graphics or visualized products (public-facing) that attempt to quantify “threats” or “risks” for various weather-related hazards by various NWS offices with varying criteria, categories, and ranges.Although these graphics/products may have sound science and proper vetting in terms of partner/customer feedback, it is crucial to have a consistent message and minimize confusion. The NWS needs to establish baseline definitions and/or criteria used in threat/risk messaging for hazards that are not already addressed and to apply these characteristics (i.e., language, colors, etc.) for messaging these threat/risk for hazards.Background:The NWS should establish a requirement to deliver information in a way that consistently conveys the risks/threats posed by weather-driven hazards to support effective decision-making and planning by our users and partners. With the National Weather Service (NWS) focused on providing effective Impact Decision Support Services (IDSS) at the local, regional, and national levels, there have been a number of products developed at various levels that are tailored to user needs or requests. Certain products are aimed at a larger and more general risk/threat representation, others are tailored to either a localized area or specific user group. While impacts from a weather or environmental hazard may vary from place to place based on a variety of factors, the probability of occurrence of a particular hazard should be consistently represented. Probabilistic information-based products for weather and environmental hazards is anticipated to become more prominent, particularly as the NWS forecasts and alerts for increasingly more specific hazards (i.e. probabilistic sea nettle guidance). Inconsistencies can cause confusion and detract from the intended message, especially between forecasts from national centers and WFOs, or between adjacent WFO County Warning Areas (CWA). Several hazards are common to more than one scale (e.g., high winds are a common hazard to both the Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook, EHWO, and the Hurricane Threats and Impacts, HTI, products) and are inconsistently depicted from scale to scale as they draw upon different sources and weightings for the algorithms that determine their relative risk/threat level. While there are risk/threat products created for unique hazards (i.e. probability of tropical cyclone genesis), many of the hazards depicted in these products overlap with other NWS products, and while there may be a need for a specific community to depict the risk/threat associated with a hazard differently, those scales which are intended for public use should show a consistent message about the risk/threat of the expected hazard. 1.2 Time SensitivityThere is an immediate need to assess inconsistencies in the agency’s current operational and experimental products and services that rely on a hazard-specific risk and/or threats scale. For example, Weather Forecast Offices (WFO) that are producing both the EHWO and the HTI graphics are displaying inconsistent risk/threat levels associated with the hazards common to both schemes as they draw upon different sources and weightings for their algorithms (e.g.., HTI and EHWO products from Potential Tropical Cyclone Ten). These inconsistencies can cause confusion, not only in high impact, short-fuse events like a tornado/severe weather outbreak but also in longer-fuse events that are forecasted days in advance and have a delicate communication framework for the public and for IDSS purposes.This request is associated with the FY17 milestone for the AFS Severe Weather Program, “Requirements for operational, nationally-standardized hazard risk and impact graphics” but is also an effort that will be closely coordinated with the other National Services Programs (NSP).1.3 Existing Operational GapsThe “gap” that is associated with these products is most noticeable in the graphical representations of weather and environmental hazard risks/threat ranges and categorizations that have evolved over time and with a lack of agency-driven baselining. Aside from the aforementioned issues with consistent messaging for a hazard, leaving users to determine which product is the authoritative source for the information they require, the wording used to describe the relative threat level and the colors used on graphical scales differ from product to product. Here is an example side-by-side comparison of “flooding risk” depicted simultaneously in the EHWO and the HTI products for the Flooding Rain hazard associated with Potential Tropical Cyclone Ten (2017).-22860021716900Enhanced Hazardous Weather OutlookHurricane Threats & Impacts (graphics)30367646413500Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook (Flooding Legend)-2286008636000These products are displayed on external-facing webpages that can vary significantly in their user experience and functionality. There are active CaRDS requests to address some of these issues (see Section 4 for details). It is important to distinguish that the requirement addressed in this request is to ensure the information conveyed to users through these products (operational or experimental) about the hazard-specific risks/threats should have some level of standardized where necessary and applicable. Below is a table of numerous experimental and operationally (and mostly routine) issued products that have some type of risk/threat scale for specific or generalized hazards. Table 1: Examples of NWS Products That Use a Scale to Convey the Risk/Threat from a Weather or Environmental HazardLine OfficeHazard Product (Text) Hazard Product (Graphic) National CenterSPCConvective OutlooksConvective OutlooksWPC1). Excessive Rainfall Forecasts2). Winter Weather Forecast1). Excessive Rainfall Forecasts2). Winter Weather Forecasts3). Experimental Day 4-7 Winter Weather Outlook4). Significant River Flood Outlook (National Composite)AWCNoneNoneCPCU.S. Hazards OutlookU.S. Hazards OutlookNHC/CPHCTropical Weather OutlookGraphical Tropical Weather OutlookTWCPac. Tsunami WC MessagesPac. Tsunami WC MessagesOPCNoneSea Nettle Probability of EncountersRegional CenterRFCNoneSignificant River Flood Outlook (Regional)WFOHazardous Weather Outlook (HWO)*Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook (EHWO)***GHWO (from NWS TSA)Days 3-7 Winter Storm Threat (from NWS LWX)Hurricane Local StatementTropical Cyclone W/W ProductHurricane Threats and Impacts (HTI)Fire Weather Matrix*Fire Weather Matrix (page)***Surf Zone Forecast (SRF)**Beach Forecast (Exper.)***National Fire Weather Program NoneFire Weather Impact Matrix**** All WFOs** WFOs with marine responsibility only*** Regionally dependentThis is not an exhaustive listing. There may be a number of additional products that are either unique or local derivatives. Use this link to view a table (inside an additional appendix document) with expanded data and characteristics of many of the above products. Screenshot (which is also a clickable link to the Appendix document): Example images of each of these products from this table can be found in this Google Folder.2 Justification and Benefits to the NWS2.1 Strategic Drivers and Mandates Table 2.1: JustificationDoes the requirement address a mandate by NOAA, DOC, OMB, Executive Order, or Law?Y / NIs the requirement needed to satisfy a specific external organization’s needs?Y / NDoes the requirement address a specific DOC, NOAA, or NWS strategic initiative?Y / NExplanation of justification:Weather Research & Forecasting Innovation Act - Public Law 115-25 Section 406: Requires NOAA to assess its system for issuing hazardous weather and water event watches and warnings within two years of enactment and to submit the resulting report to Congress. Specifically, for this request, the assessment’s focus is to include how best to communicate risks that would improve mitigation, enhance broad and rapid communication to the public, preserve benefits of the existing system, and maintain the system’s utility for government and commercial users.External organizations have asked the NWS to provide risk/threat level information for specific hazards. FEMA has asked for this from HTI. They have also asked for graphical tropical weather outlooks for the Central and Western Pacific that include the probability of tropical cyclone formation (low, medium, high). [Specific initiatives are underlined below]NOAA Next-Generation Strategic Plan Long-term Goal: Weather-Ready NationObjective: Reduced loss of life, property, and disruption from high-impact events. NOAA will provide forecasts and information that compare weather risk to user-defined risk tolerance and redefine warnings to be applicable to a broad range of high-impact events. In collaboration with its partners, NOAA will provide direct, interpretive support to public sector officials and emergency responders, and expand environmental education and weather safety programs. NOAA will work closely with local, State, and national emergency managers and other Government Agencies to understand better the information they need to assess risk and make decisions. This will lead to more integrated, usable, and relevant information and services.Hurricane Sandy Service Assessment (May 2013)Section 3.1.2, p.22. Recommendation 2: The NWS should generate and provide products focused on impacts. Such products need to specify where and when impacts will occur and should clearly communicate hazards posed, including wind, flooding from both rainfall and storm surge, and tornadoes.Section 3.1.4, p.27. Recommendation 5: The NWS should develop more effective and consistent products to communicate severe weather impacts, specifically:- Concise summaries of weather and its impacts using non-technical text and graphical material provided in a short and easy-to-read format.- Confidence or uncertainty and worst-case scenario information.These products should be pretested using evidence-based social science. NWS should alsoprovide effective training on the use of these products to ensure WFO personnel know how tobest communicate with decision makers and the public during extreme weather events.NWS Weather-Ready Nation Roadmap (2013): Pertinent Key Concepts:Shift from product-focused service to interpretation and municate on-demand, reliable, quantified, and comprehensive forecast confidence information.Improve usefulness of products and services for decision-making.Deliver information in a way that conveys its potential impact to support good decision-making and planning.Partner with entities across the Weather Enterprise to improve communications and dissemination for high-impact events.Additionally, there are potential cross-linkages with the Evolve NWS initiative in the table below, through: 1). IDSS Planning and Core Service Level, 4). IDSS Hazard Simplification, and 7). Future Operating Model Demo.2.2 Benefits Table 2.2: Benefit to the NWS Describe how the request will benefit NWS’ mission to protect life and property.Describe how the request will help the NWS better serve our partners and the public.Describe how the request will improve how NWS operates.Describe how the request will help NWS be a better steward of government resources (e.g., time or money).Explanation of benefits to NWS:Consistency of the message across NWS products and platforms regarding the risk/threat and impacts expected from a specific hazard will benefit the NWS’ mission by preventing confusion and possible misinterpretation of the intended message. Consistency in the actionable information provided by the NWS will help better serve partners and the public by securing the public’s trust Adopting common algorithms and language associated with risk/threat and impact levels will improve how the NWS operates by eliminating the need for multiple algorithms to support different and potentially conflicting versions of the information maintained by multiple offices. This request will save time by reducing the number of stand-alone algorithms maintained by multiple NWS offices to produce effectively the same information. 3.National Service ProgramTable 3.1: Identification of lead National Service ProgramProgram NameXProgram NameXProgram NameXAviation XTropical XPublic XFire Weather XWinter Weather XSpace Weather XMarine XClimate XTsunami XSevere Weather (Lead) XWater Resources XOverarching (broad cross-cutting) X4.Estimated Resource NeedsSince the program cross-cutting for this request is extensive, it is anticipated that sufficient time and prioritization of this request will be needed from the impacted Service Program Teams to assess the need and evaluate the current suite of products identified in Table 1 and others not listed or identified as of this submission. In most cases, national risk/threat information could be derived from current NWS products with little to no additional workload from the forecaster by using the weather elements already produced for the National Digital Forecast Database (i.e., dew points, wind speed and direction, etc.) depending on the work associated with standardizing specific criteria within products where applicable. A coordinated effort, perhaps lead by NWS SOOs/DOHs, to develop common algorithms for the depiction of the risk/threat for particular hazards is needed. This effort must keep in mind the extensive data available to inform particular hazard algorithms given the conditions driving the hazard (i.e., algorithms for wind should change depending on whether they are invoked due to tropical weather versus trade winds, algorithms for temperature risk/threat should change depending on whether they are invoked due to freezing versus heat and humidity, etc.). Resources considerations for this request will be dependent on the proposed solution(s), specifically the aforementioned coordinated effort on developing common algorithms. Potential resources will be needed for Central Processing (CP) for changes in AWIPS and technical support and the Analyze, Forecast Office (AFS) for SOO/DOH engagement, through regional vetting.5.Supplemental ConsiderationRelated requests in the CaRDS system:There are a number of other CaRDS requests (active or inactive) that have similar-sounding terminology or considerations to this one, though each one has a separate need or requirement from this request. 16-020: Common National Capability for Forecast and Hazard Graphics Generation for Briefings, Webpages and Social Media. This request is primarily focused on consistency of the graphical depictions of various forecasts and forecast products used in either social media platforms or for IDSS briefing packages to agency partners.16-023: Prototype Display for Consistent Colors and Gradients Across all Hazard Types. This submission is tied to the graphical display of hazard by color. While it is not directly related to this request, it should be considered if a potential solution involves standardized risk/threat color scales. 16-030: Improved Decision Support Services for Tropical Cyclones in Pacific and Western Regions. This request looks to establish a requirement for increased consistency in NWS tropical cyclone products and services. If an overarching requirement is established for consistency in risk/threat scales, any possible solutions for CaRDS 16-030 will be affected. 16-037: NWS Interactive Web-Based Map. This request is for an “interactive web-based map to support all NWS product suites”, particularly to meet the needs of customers and partners. The solution is centered on the visual consistency of the map itself and the interactivity and robust capabilities of the map. Additionally, 16-026: Common Web Design for Map-Based Graphic and Text Information was withdrawn and morphed into this request. ................
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