Edr.state.fl.us

Revenue Estimating Conference Executive Summary for Lottery Ticket Sales and the EETF

December 11, 2019

The Revenue Estimating Conference reviewed Lottery sales and transfers on December 11, 2019. At the end of the first week in December, total ticket sales for Fiscal Year 2019-20 were $87.2 million above the estimate. After taking account of all components, the transfer to the Educational Enhancement Trust Fund (EETF) was projected to be $0.7 million greater than expectations for this period.

In response, the Conference increased the overall sales forecast by $77.9 million in Fiscal Year 2019-20 and by $180.4 million in Fiscal Year 2020-21. The addition to total sales in each of the subsequent fiscal years modestly increases, a result of essentially matching the prior growth rates throughout the forecast period. The final expected transfers to the EETF were increased by $7.6 million in Fiscal Year 2019-20 and $44.9 million in Fiscal Year 2020-21. The EETF distribution gains continue to grow with the new sales forecast through Fiscal Year 2023-24, before dropping to $14.3 million in Fiscal Year 2024-25. In that year, a technical adjustment was made to the expected cash contribution, producing this atypical result.

? Scratch-Off sales were running $161.3 million above estimate in early December. The Conference made the greatest forecast adjustments to this collection of games, adding $177.9 million in Fiscal Year 2019-20 and $230.2 million in Fiscal Year 2020-21. Fast Play, as of December, was above estimate by $0.2 million; however, it was not adjusted in the new forecast.

? The Conference made negative adjustments to Powerball in each year. Sales estimates were decreased by $93.4 million in Fiscal Year 2019-20, and then between $63.1 million and $66.2 million in each of the subsequent fiscal years.

? Lotto was only $0.4 million above estimate in early December, prompting the Conference to maintain the current forecast. In contrast, Cash 4 Life was coming in $6.7 million above estimate. The Conference increased that forecast by $10.9 million to $15.7 million in each fiscal year.

? Fantasy 5 sales were running only $0.8 million under estimate for Fiscal Year 2019-20 year-todate, leading the Conference to maintain the current forecast. Since Jackpot Triple Play was coming in $1.8 million under estimate and is a much smaller game, the Conference decreased the forecast by $4.9 million in each fiscal year.

? Mega Millions saw downward adjustments in the new forecast, especially to the current year. Mega Millions was reduced by $24.0 million in Fiscal Year 2019-20 and $5.1 million to $5.4 million in subsequent years. Pick Games were collectively coming in above estimate by $4.2 million; therefore, the Conference decided to increase the forecast by $11.3 million to $11.9 million in each fiscal year.

Additional details of the forecast and other changes are shown in the following table.

Scratch-off Powerball Mega Millions Lotto Jackpot Triple Play Fantasy 5 Pick Games Cash 4 Life Fast Play TOTAL EETF Receipts from Ticket Sales

Summary of All Games

August 2019

2019-20

5184.0

2020-21

5339.5

2021-22

5416.9

2022-23

5492.2

2023-24

5564.9

2024-25

5635.0

2019-20

438.4

2020-21

444.4

2021-22

450.2

2022-23

455.6

2023-24

460.8

2024-25

466.0

2019-20

274.6

2020-21

278.8

2021-22

282.7

2022-23

286.5

2023-24

290.1

2024-25

293.6

2019-20

212.3

2020-21

206.0

2021-22

203.9

2022-23

201.9

2023-24

199.8

2024-25

197.8

2019-20

62.0

2020-21

62.0

2021-22

62.0

2022-23

62.0

2023-24

62.0

2024-25

62.0

2019-20

254.0

2020-21

254.5

2021-22

255.0

2022-23

255.5

2023-24

256.1

2024-25

256.6

2019-20

716.4

2020-21

723.5

2021-22

730.8

2022-23

738.1

2023-24

745.4

2024-25

752.9

2019-20

50.8

2020-21

50.8

2021-22

50.8

2022-23

50.8

2023-24

50.8

2024-25

50.8

2019-20

19.7

2020-21

19.9

2021-22

20.0

2022-23

20.1

2023-24

20.3

2024-25

20.4

2019-20

7212.3

2020-21

7379.3

2021-22

7472.4

2022-23

7562.7

2023-24

7650.3

2024-25

7735.1

2019-20

1817.1

2020-21

1856.2

2021-22

1878.8

2022-23

1899.4

2023-24

1948.8

2024-25

1978.7

Dec 2019 5361.9 5569.7 5653.2 5732.4 5806.9 5882.4 345.0 381.3 386.3 390.9 395.4 399.9 250.6 273.6 277.5 281.3 284.8 288.2 212.3 206.0 203.9 201.9 199.8 197.8 57.0 57.0 57.0 57.0 57.0 57.0 254.0 254.5 255.0 255.5 256.1 256.6 727.7 735.0 742.3 749.8 757.3 764.8 61.8 62.7 63.6 64.6 65.5 66.5 19.7 19.9 20.0 20.1 20.3 20.4 7290.1 7559.7 7659.0 7753.5 7843.1 7933.7 1824.7 1901.1 1926.4 1948.5 1999.5 1993.0

Difference 177.9 230.2 236.3 240.1 242.0 247.4 -93.4 -63.1 -63.9 -64.7 -65.4 -66.2 -24.0 -5.1 -5.2 -5.2 -5.3 -5.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -4.9 -4.9 -4.9 -4.9 -4.9 -4.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 11.3 11.5 11.6 11.7 11.8 11.9 10.9 11.8 12.8 13.7 14.7 15.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 77.9 180.4 186.6 190.7 192.8 198.6 7.6 44.9 47.6 49.1 50.7 14.3

LOTTERY ESTIMATING CONFERENCE, DECEMBER 2019 LOTTERY SALES PROJECTIONS SUMMARY

2016-17 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 2020-21 2021-22 2022-23 2023-24 2024-25

Ticket Sales

Aug 2019 6157.0 6701.1 7151.2 7212.3 7379.3 7472.4 7562.7 7650.3 7735.1

Dec 2019 6157.0 6701.1 7151.2 7290.1 7559.7 7659.0 7753.5 7843.1 7933.7

Diff. 0.0 0.0 0.0

77.9 180.4 186.6 190.7 192.8 198.6

2016-17 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 2020-21 2021-22 2022-23 2023-24 2024-25

Other Income

Aug 2019 12.4 13.4 16.0 14.0 14.1 14.2 14.3 14.4 14.5

Dec 2019 12.4 13.4 16.0 14.0 14.1 14.2 14.3 14.4 14.5

Diff. 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

2016-17 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 2020-21 2021-22 2022-23 2023-24 2024-25

Unclaimed Prizes

Aug 2019 69.3 55.3 58.3 58.2 59.7 60.5 61.2 61.9 62.7

Dec 2019 69.3 55.3 58.3 59.2 61.4 62.2 63.0 63.8 64.5

Diff. 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 1.7 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.9

Distribution to EETF from Lottery Receipts

Aug 2019 Dec 2019 Diff.

2016-17

1724.7 1724.7

0.0

2017-18

1760.0 1760.0

0.0

2018-19

1917.6 1917.6

0.0

2019-20

1817.1 1824.7

7.6

2020-21

1856.2 1901.1

44.9

2021-22

1878.8 1926.4

47.6

2022-23

1899.4 1948.5

49.1

2023-24

1948.8 1999.5

50.7

2024-25

1978.7 1993.0

14.3

1

8/8/2019

SCRATCH-OFF

1997-98 1998-99 1999-00 2000-01 2001-02 2002-03 2003-04 2004-05 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 2020-21 2021-22 2022-23 2023-24 2024-25

Total Sales

Aug 2019 Dec 2019

583.4

583.4

593.7

593.7

568.4

568.4

639.2

639.2

662.6

662.6

1073.9 1073.9

1358.1 1358.1

1844.6 1844.6

2100.1 2100.1

2283.6 2283.6

2368.8 2368.8

2064.1 2064.1

2078.1 2078.1

2225.7 2225.7

2567.0 2567.0

3028.5 3028.5

3417.1 3417.1

3724.1 3724.1

3954.7 3954.7

4243.6 4243.6

4652.3 4652.3

4937.8 4937.8

5184.0 5361.9

5339.5 5569.7

5416.9 5653.2

5492.2 5732.4

5564.9 5806.9

5635.0 5882.4

Due to EETF from Ticket Sales

Aug 2019 Dec 2019

1997-98

1998-99

1999-00

2000-01

2001-02

251.8

251.8

2002-03

279.3

279.3

2003-04

326.9

326.9

2004-05

387.9

387.9

2005-06

409.0

409.0

2006-07

443.1

443.1

2007-08

470.8

470.8

2008-09

412.0

412.0

2009-10

402.7

402.7

2010-11

414.3

414.3

2011-12

502.3

502.3

2012-13

564.1

564.1

2013-14

639.5

639.5

2014-15

689.1

689.1

2015-16

741.5

741.5

2016-17

786.2

786.2

2017-18

865.3

865.3

2018-19

918.8

918.8

2019-20

963.7

1013.3

2020-21

994.4

1061.0

2021-22

1009.5

1077.7

2022-23

1024.2

1093.5

2023-24

1038.5

1108.4

2024-25

1052.2

1123.5

Per Capita Sales

Aug 2019 Dec 2019

1997-98

38.6

38.6

1998-99

38.4

38.4

1999-00

35.9

35.9

2000-01

39.5

39.5

2001-02

40.1

40.1

2002-03

63.7

63.7

2003-04

78.8

78.8

2004-05

104.6

104.6

2005-06

116.6

116.6

2006-07

124.5

124.5

2007-08

127.6

127.6

2008-09

110.6

110.6

2009-10

110.8

110.8

2010-11

117.9

117.9

2011-12

134.9

134.9

2012-13

157.6

157.6

2013-14

175.8

175.8

2014-15

188.7

188.7

2015-16

197.1

197.1

2016-17

208.0

208.0

2017-18

224.2

224.2

2018-19

233.9

233.9

2019-20

241.6

249.8

2020-21

244.9

255.5

2021-22

244.8

255.5

2022-23

244.7

255.4

2023-24

244.6

255.3

2024-25

244.5

255.3

2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 2020-21 2021-22 2022-23 2023-24 2024-25

Growth Rates

-12.9% 0.7% 7.1%

15.3% 18.0% 12.8%

9.0% 6.2% 7.3% 9.6% 6.1% 5.0% 3.0% 1.5% 1.4% 1.3% 1.3%

-12.9% 0.7% 7.1%

15.3% 18.0% 12.8%

9.0% 6.2% 7.3% 9.6% 6.1% 8.6% 3.9% 1.5% 1.4% 1.3% 1.3%

Average Weekly Sales

Aug 2019 Dec 2019

2009-10

40.0

40.0

2010-11

42.8

42.8

2011-12

49.4

49.4

2012-13

58.2

58.2

2013-14

65.7

65.7

2014-15

71.6

71.6

2015-16

76.1

76.1

2016-17

81.6

81.6

2017-18

89.5

89.5

2018-19

95.0

95.0

2019-20

99.7

103.1

2020-21

102.7

107.1

2021-22

104.2

108.7

2022-23

105.6

110.2

2023-24

107.0

111.7

2024-25

108.4

113.1

Average Weekly Sales

Aug 2019 Dec 2019

1997-98

11.2

11.2

1998-99

11.4

11.4

1999-00

10.9

10.9

2000-01

12.3

12.3

2001-02

12.7

12.7

2002-03

20.7

20.7

2003-04

26.1

26.1

2004-05

35.5

35.5

2005-06

40.4

40.4

2006-07

43.9

43.9

2007-08

45.6

45.6

2008-09

39.7

39.7

2009-10

40.0

40.0

2010-11

42.8

42.8

2011-12

49.4

49.4

2012-13

58.2

58.2

2013-14

65.7

65.7

2014-15

71.6

71.6

2015-16

76.1

76.1

2016-17

81.6

81.6

2017-18

89.5

89.5

2018-19

95.0

95.0

2019-20

99.7

103.1

2020-21

102.7

107.1

2021-22

104.2

108.7

2022-23

105.6

110.2

2023-24

107.0

111.7

2024-25

108.4

113.1

2

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POWERBALL (INCLUDING POWER PLAY)

2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 2020-21 2021-22 2022-23 2023-24 2024-25

Ticket Sales

Aug 2019 Dec 2019

233.4

233.4

434.1

434.1

393.0

393.0

503.7

503.7

654.3

654.3

469.3

469.3

375.1

375.1

602.0

602.0

434.3

434.3

474.0

474.0

459.4

459.4

438.4

345.0

444.4

381.3

450.2

386.3

455.6

390.9

460.8

395.4

466.0

399.9

Per Capita Sales

Aug 2019 Dec 2019

2008-09 *

25.0

25.0

2009-10

23.1

23.1

2010-11

20.8

20.8

2011-12

26.5

26.5

2012-13

34.1

34.1

2013-14

24.1

24.1

2014-15

19.0

19.0

2015-16

30.0

30.0

2016-17

21.3

21.3

2017-18

22.8

22.8

2018-19

21.8

21.8

2019-20

20.4

16.1

2020-21

20.4

17.5

2021-22

20.3

17.5

2022-23

20.3

17.4

2023-24

20.3

17.4

2024-25

20.2

17.4

Average Weekly Sales

Aug 2019 Dec 2019

2008-09 *

9.0

9.0

2009-10

8.3

8.3

2010-11

7.6

7.6

2011-12

9.7

9.7

2012-13

12.6

12.6

2013-14

9.0

9.0

2014-15

7.2

7.2

2015-16

11.6

11.6

2016-17

8.4

8.4

2017-18

9.1

9.1

2018-19

8.8

8.8

2019-20

8.4

6.6

2020-21

8.5

7.3

2021-22

8.7

7.4

2022-23

8.8

7.5

2023-24

8.9

7.6

2024-25

9.0

7.7

2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 2020-21 2021-22 2022-23 2023-24 2024-25

Growth Rates

86.0% -9.5% 28.2% 29.9% -28.3% -20.1% 60.5% -27.9% 9.2% -3.1% -4.6% 1.3% 1.3% 1.2% 1.2% 1.1%

86.0% -9.5% 28.2% 29.9% -28.3% -20.1% 60.5% -27.9% 9.2% -3.1% -24.9% 10.5% 1.3% 1.2% 1.2% 1.1%

*Annualized figures

3

8/8/2019

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