What a Needs to Know About Counts and Studies …

What a Transportation Professional Needs to Know About Counts and Studies during a Pandemic

JULY 2020

1

What a Transportation Professional Needs to Know about Counts and Studies during a Pandemic

Institute of Transportation Engineers 1627 Eye Street, NW, Suite 600 Washington, DC 20006 USA Telephone: +1 202-785-0060 Fax: +1 202-785-0609 Publication No. IR-148-E July 2020

? 2020 Institute of Transportation Engineers. All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, distributed, or transmitted in any form or by any means, including storing in a retrieval system, photocopying, recording, or other electronic or mechanical methods, without the prior written permission of the publisher, except in the case of brief quotations embodied in critical reviews and certain other noncommercial uses permitted by copyright law. For permission requests, write to the publisher at the above address. Printed in the United States of America ISBN-10: 1-7345078-2-9 ISBN-13: 978-1-7345078-2-9

1

Acknowledgements

This White Paper was developed by a volunteer technical committee that was formed for this purpose. Contributors to the development of the material in the White Paper include the following: Randy McCourt (Committee Chair) Joey Bartus Alison Felix Ruben Gallegos Kevin Hooper Jonathan Kiser Wayne Kittelson Karyn Robles Matthew Skelly Mike Spack Ted Trepanier

2

A Guide to What a Transportation Professional Needs to Know about Counts and Studies during a Pandemic

Purpose To provide ITE members and practitioners guidance on the types of questions, issues, and decisions they will have to make regarding traffic counting in the fluid and dynamic circumstances of the current pandemic (or other future unusual circumstances).

We all are in awe of the speed and magnitude of changes in trip-making we have witnessed over the past few months, and fully expect continued change will be the norm for some time. To be in the midst of these changes while trying to make sense of them can be overwhelming.

Ferris Bueller: "Life moves pretty fast. If you don't stop and look around once in a while, you could miss it." Ferris Bueller's Day Off, 1986

Overview Over the past four months, typical transportation activities have changed significantly with the COVID-19 pandemic. Events that impact transportation are not that uncommon; from solar eclipses to Super Bowls. However, this event is unprecedented in its global reach, its unknown duration, and the fact that "normal" is unlikely to return after the event. We have already witnessed altered home and work environments, travel patterns, and unprecedented reductions in congestion. As the pandemic transitions from outbreak to management, some of these changes are returning to normal while others are establishing a "new" normal. The roadmap into the future involves us all.

In May 2020, an ITE Task Force was formed to address various questions the transportation profession is facing regarding the management of collecting traffic data during the pandemic and into the future. These are the findings and guidance from the Task Force. Much information is hyperlinked to various sources of information that our members may find of value. The Task Force was not charged with establishing policies, recommended practices, or instructing others on how to utilize judgement in complex times as these. (The identification of one private data source over another or of one set of guidelines over another should not infer any preference on the part of the authors.) This simply represents our best thoughts on available resources, issues, and topics that ITE members may encounter and some prudent perspectives on how to proceed in utilizing good data practices within available resources. The first two sections, Counts, Studies, and Why? and Ethics present issues to ponder. The subsequent four sections, Interim Guidance and Policies, When will Normal Return? Forecasting, and Trip Generation all provide insight and guidance related to these issues.

One characteristic we have all observed during these unusual times, is that conditions are changing; if not weekly, then daily. Everything presented here will change, likely before you read this. Many of the websites referenced in this guide are updating daily. We expect that by the Transportation Research Board Annual Meeting in January 2021, the Task Force will need to refresh this assessment and highlight new findings. We expect members will contribute to the discussion about these revelations in real time (such as ITE e-Community or ITE Drop-Ins) as

4

we engage together in greater understanding of the pandemic and its impacts to the transportation profession.

COUNTS, STUDIES, AND WHY?

Many in the transportation profession are directly involved in counts or data and their use in studies, designs, and decision making. If counts were scheduled for mid-March, they most likely were not completed or may have been deferred until the fall of 2020. The travel impacts of COVID-19 led to immediate 40-60 percent reductions in both volume and VMT on many principal roadways. In contrast to the Great Recession, which saw VMT growth curtailed and reductions of 2-3 percent, the pandemic reductions were remarkable. Following are some of the questions ITE identified and some guidance that will help you determine the best plan of action as it relates to your study or project.

It's important to know the intended use of a count as that can help determine the appropriate actions (e.g., citizen requests, count programs, forecasting, signal retiming, etc.). Although the path to data normalization must be determined for there to be meaningful infrastructure additions/modifications, there may be substantial value in using pandemic data as a resource for future pandemic planning and coordination with other public entities. Certain count programs and citizen requests for data may be able to be deferred to later times. Studies and timedependent capital projects may not be able to be delayed, requiring alternative base count development such as the following:

1. Past data - there are numerous sources of historical counts but there can be challenges in finding and acquiring the data a. Silos of counts - DOT, City, County, MPO, RPC, consultants, and count firms (several count firms have extensive databases (a few examples include )) of historic counts; all have data, not to mention departments within organizations b. Lack of standard formatting and available metadata

2. Doing counts - adjustments will likely be needed and consideration given to several issues a. When will traffic return to normal? i. There will likely be a "new normal" that will need to account for a national increase in the work-from-home model, trucking moving into peak periods that had been historically congested, national increase in remote schooling, and changes in transit use. The collective effect could be different regionally and take time to find "new equilibrium." One of the key indicators available to determine when the new normal is in effect may be when schools have fully returned and remain back in session. ii. Time-of-day changes - while daily counts are nearing pre-pandemic levels in some areas, the traditional peak hour counts remain quite different. Looking at ADT numbers alone will not be a good indicator of "return to normal" For example, traditional peaks remain lower and mid-day is 5

higher; potentially related to increased work from home. It is very likely the new normal will be more about understanding new time of day distributions than total volume. b. How can I get counts done? i. Resources are available to undertake various short -term and long-term data collection projects. National and local count firms have seen a decrease in active projects. Availability and capacity are currently at their highest. c. What are some things to consider? i. Work-from-home

1. Many companies have made temporary or permanent workflow adjustments that allow for remote working arrangements. This has had an unpredictable impact on the traditional AM and PM peak period. Conditions include the following: a. Permanent work-from-home conditions b. Alternating in-office work weeks c. Partial day in-office work weeks d. Staggered in-office daily shifts

2. Weekday averages may need to be relied on to appropriately capture this abnormal commuting activity. Using probe data (see below) or considering an average of two-to-three days of weekday peak hours may be necessary in place of one single weekday data.

3. Volume (turn, link, mode, classification), speed, parking, travel time, and transit boarding can all be done; producing trending of pandemic impacts; however, until a vaccine becomes available, any 2020 counts should be used with caution and will likely require an "*" note.

ii. Reduced consumer driving behavior 1. Online consumerism may increase while brick-and-mortar consumerism decreases. This may not be quantifiable in a meaningful way for quite a while, after a vaccine is available.

iii. Remote schooling 1. Several public and private schools have partially transitioned to virtual learning environments. It's still unclear how long this option will remain. In the short term, peak school activity may look very different during the drop-off and pick-up periods. For colleges and universities, the impact on traffic may depend on the percentage of students that live on campus vs. off campus.

iv. Studies that do not rely on vehicle, pedestrian, and bicycle volumes can be performed without concern of the COVID impact. 1. GIS/GPS Asset Inventory Studies 2. MIRE Studies 3. Ball Bank/Horizontal Curve Studies

3. Big Data

6

a. Probe data is available to provide trending before-during-after COVID. Probe data can consist of both in-vehicle GPS units, which have frequent and highlyspatial accurate location pings, as well as location-based services (LBS) data which have less frequent, yet still highly-spatially accurate location pings. Invehicle GPS data has shown to be a good resource for speed studies, while the larger sample size of LBS data has been proven effective for understanding trip routing and trip counts on roadways.

b. There are case studies of replacing count programs in the interim with big data (an Oklahoma example case study is provided from Streetlight).

c. Geospatial information about parking lot usage can serve as a measure of economic activity and traffic congestion. For example, BlackSky uses image recognition to determine how many cars are in parking lots and then uses software to compare those numbers against a baseline. "How BlackSky's Spectra Geospatial Data Platform Uses AI to Make Sense of Satellite Images" (GeekWire, May 11, 2020)

d. Data is growing rapidly, both in density and types. As an example, INRIX trip samples increased approximately 10 fold during 2019. How you validate data is important and there are resources (such as this Streetlight White Paper) available to consider these issues.

e. Hybrid - Some use cases may be serviced by combining available ground counts with continuous probe data to fill in gaps or save costs of added counting.

f. Who has the data? This is an open question as new sources become available. Transportation data has been available for many years from companies such as INRIX, HERE, Streetlight, AirSage and TomTom. Newer sources include companies like Wejo and Otonomo. These data sets have strengths and weaknesses related to accuracy, depending upon the applications and context. Users should inquire about level of accuracy and consider doing pilot tests to validate appropriate applications before committing large resources to projects.

g. Call and inquire - as available data is growing rapidly, staying informed on sources and associated use cases can be a real challenge. Pricing is also changing rapidly and subject to negotiation. A classic Google search may be a good start to investigate sources specific to individual use cases but much of the information will most likely be dated. All the reputable companies have technical and sales contacts who can provide updated information and, in most cases, offer free samples for evaluation.

ETHICS

Ethical issues surrounding the need, use, and creations of counts should not be ignored. Section 6 of the ITE Canon of Ethics states: The member will express an opinion on a professional subject only when it is founded on adequate knowledge and honest conviction. As transportation professionals are asked to do their job and complete projects, what is within the boundaries of adequate knowledge and honest conviction? Much of this falls within the topics presented in this guide.

7

Adequate Knowledge

How do you determine adequate knowledge? What is this related to context? Rural Walmart? Urban downtown? Airport parking study? What counts are adequate? Which land uses/areas are impacted and which are not? When will traffic bounce back? Can you accurately estimate mode shift changes from

transit and carpool to other modes and work-from-home? Have we ever been able to forecast with 100 percent accuracy? What are the ranges of

outcome or risks; have they changed? Should we continue our routine counting programs?

Honest Conviction

What are the tools one can utilize? What is the thought and documentation process? Identification of where you have utilized judgement and how? Transparency? Objective decision making v. discretionary decisions

For Agency Staff: To provide adequate knowledge for our profession, it is prudent to continue Counting Programs to provide historical data for future decisions. Studies related to maintenance and safety issues should be done to fulfill our fiduciary responsibility to the public (per Sections 1, 3, 4, 8, and 12 of the ITE Canon of Ethics). Studies undertaken to solve congestion should be done only if solutions can be delivered with honest conviction, which requires judgement given the uncertainty of the pandemic's impacts in some regions.

For Firm Staff: It is ethical to deliver studies as requested by clients if you have adequate knowledge and can deliver the study with honest conviction.

The decision to resume counting programs associated with Highway Performance Monitoring System annual reporting requirements is an example of where decisions are unclear. The Federal Highway Administration (FHWA) has not directed suspension of coverage/spot counts and has left decision-making to the states. The decision to utilize estimates based on 2019 data or conduct counts and when is complex. Reviewing the wealth of data sources available (many noted in this document) should be considered to inform these decisions later this summer and early fall.

The findings of this paper are provided to professionals to assist in their guidance on completing studies that can be founded on adequate knowledge and delivered with honest conviction.

INTERIM GUIDANCE AND POLICIES ISSUED BETWEEN MARCH - JUNE 2020

Some DOTs, Councils of Governments, counties, municipalities, as well as the private sector have developed interim guidance and policies on conducting traffic counts and advancing studies during COVID-19. Overall, the interim guidance and policies require consultation with

8

 ................
................

In order to avoid copyright disputes, this page is only a partial summary.

Google Online Preview   Download