Moody’s: Oklahoma outlook positive

[Pages:8]Volume 9, Issue 7 ? November 2019

Oklahoma Economic Report TM

State Treasurer Randy McDaniel

News and analysis of Oklahoma's economy ? A publication of the State Treasurer's Office

Moody's: Oklahoma outlook positive

The state of Oklahoma is positioned for a possible upgrade in its bond rating, similar to receiving a higher credit score.

The better a state's bond rating, the less it has to pay in interest costs when using bonds to finance infrastructure projects.

While an upgrade is far from certain, recent signals from Moody's Investors Service are a step in the right direction.

In late October, Moody's, one of the

Moody's action followed a meeting

three primary rating agencies of state in September with state leaders to

credit-worthiness,

provide rating

" published a credit

opinion upgrading Oklahoma's credit outlook to

Our financial house is in order and we are poised to strengthen

analysts with an update on the economy, credit trends, and policy

positive. Moody's

our position . . . "

priorities.

concurrently

affirmed

Treasurer

Oklahoma's current credit rating of

Randy McDaniel, who attended the

Aa2, two steps below the best possible meetings, said the outlook change is

rating.

SEE OUTLOOK PAGE 3

Contents

? Guest commentary by State Superintendent Joy Hofmeister: Personal Financial Literacy

? Spotlight on Financial Literacy: Soaring student debt is keeping people of all ages from a stable retirement

? October Gross Receipts to the Treasury show growth

? State jobless rate rises slightly in October

? Economic Indicators

Editor Tim Allen, Deputy Treasurer for Communications and Program Administration

Constitutional Reserve Fund at Record High

(in $ millions)

$900 $675

$806

$450

$225

$0

FY-01 FY-02 FY-03 FY-04 FY-05 FY-06 FY-07 FY-08 FY-09 FY-10 FY-11 FY-12 FY-13 FY-14 FY-15 FY-16 FY-17 FY-18 FY-19 FY-20

Source: Deputy Treasurer for Debt Management. Amount available at start of fiscal year.

State Capitol Building, Room 217 ? Oklahoma City, OK 73105 ? (405) 521-3191 ? treasurer.

Oklahoma Economic Report TM

November 2019

Guest Commentary

By Joy Hofmeister, Superintendent of Public Instruction

Personal Financial Literacy: Essential for our students

Research shows that we each make roughly 35,000 decisions

In Oklahoma, we have been educating our students on financial

every day. Minus sleep, this

literacy since the state Legislature

amounts to 2,000 decisions per

passed House Bill 1478, the

hour.

Passport to Financial Literacy Act,

Much of our

in 2007.

decision-making

This act requires

" involves money

? and it's no wonder we are so preoccupied.

It is imperative that our children graduate with the

all graduating students to pass a course, Personal

Current estimates of U.S. consumer debt total $13.51

financial awareness needed to navigate the countless money-

Financial Literacy (PFL), and demonstrate full

trillion. This

related decisions in understanding

staggering figure is proof that

their lives."

of the academic standards for

we are not as

PFL developed

fiscally savvy as we could or should at the Oklahoma State Department

be.

of Education (OSDE) in conjunction

As Oklahoma's State

with Oklahoma teachers.

Superintendent of Public

In that time period, the national

Instruction, my focus is the nearly average credit score has risen five

700,000 students in our public

points, while the average credit

schools. It is imperative that our

score in Oklahoma has risen almost

children graduate with the financial 30 points. While many factors have

awareness needed to navigate the contributed to this change, our

countless money-related decisions increased educational focus on

in their lives.

financial literacy must be counted

among them. We are already at the

forefront of the nation in one area ? Oklahoma is the first state to have a director of financial education at the state level. Oklahoma schools are up to the task of preparing every student to have a financially successful future.

Work, however, remains to be done. Every spring, some of Oklahoma's most outstanding high school students from across the state join my Student Advisory Council.

One topic they invariably discuss is the need to enhance PFL so that it is more than a required course taught perfunctorily to check off a graduation requirement. These young people realize the clock is ticking, and they will soon be responsible for financial decisions that will grow in importance as they navigate their way through adulthood.

Individual Career Academic Planning (ICAP), required of all

SEE HOFMEISTER PAGE 3

treasurer. ? Page 2

Oklahoma Economic Report TM

November 2019

Hofmeister

FROM PAGE 2

ninth-graders this school year, is another platform for districts to explore innovative ways to bring members of the business community and students together.

Through internships, class visits and teacher externships, for example, it is possible to scale the impact of PFL and financial awareness beyond the classroom.

As we sharpen our focus to ensure students are college and career ready, we must also strengthen financial education.

To do so, we are enhancing the work we have done in Oklahoma, using research from the Federal Financial Literacy Education Commission to expand our focus from financial knowledge to financial capabilities.

Oklahoma strives to build exceptional educators by offering robust, high-quality professional learning opportunities for all teachers, including those in elective subjects like business education and finance. Study after study points to educator capacity as a key factor in the success of financial education. Investing in our teachers will always yield positive results for kids.

Outlook

FROM PAGE 1

the acknowledgement of concerted efforts to improve the state's financial standing.

"The state's improved fiscal condition is being recognized nationally. Our efforts to increase reserves, eliminate structural deficits, improve pension finances, and diversify the state's economy are working," he said.

"Our financial house is in order and we are poised to strengthen our position in the months and year ahead."

Moody's pointed to a number of positive trends for the state, including a return to structurally balanced budgets and record amounts of reserve funding.

"The positive outlook reflects our expectation that strong fiscal

management and a commitment to increasing reserves will continue, in line with the state's goal of strengthening its preparedness for the next cyclical economic downturn," Moody's said in a written statement.

"We also expect the state's debt burden and pension burden will continue to run well below the 50-state median."

Rating agencies take a holistic approach to debt, evaluating all obligations including bond indebtedness and unfunded pension liabilities.

Working toward an upgrade

An increase in Oklahoma's bond rating, while possible, would require a number of improvements along with continued vigilance to ensure the state's financial gains do not deteriorate.

Increasing reserves set aside for the next downturn was a key factor listed by Moody's.

The Constitutional Reserve Fund, a.k.a. the Rainy Day Fund, contains some $806 million, while the Revenue Stabilization Fund contains $200 million.

The practice of enacting structurally balanced budgets is another major factor in the upgrade picture.

The Oklahoma constitution requires a balanced budget, but that only means expenditures can not exceed revenue. Structural balance is a higher bar.

In the past, budgets were enacted that appropriated nonrecurring funds toward ongoing expenses ? thus resulting in structural imbalance. In recent years, this deficiency has been corrected.

SEE OUTLOOK PAGE 4

Opinions and positions cited in the Oklahoma Economic ReportTM are not necessarily those of Oklahoma State Treasurer Randy McDaniel or his staff, with the exception of the Treasurer's Commentary, which is, of course, the viewpoint of the treasurer.

treasurer. ? Page 3

Oklahoma Economic Report TM

November 2019

Outlook

FROM PAGE 3

As a general rule, authorizing expenditures not backed by adequate funding to offset the costs are viewed adversely by the rating agencies.

The bright spot: Pensions

One of the most positive improvements leading to the outlook upgrade for Oklahoma is the financial condition of the state's public pension systems.

Over the past 10 years, the combined funded status of the systems has risen from 56 percent to 81 percent ? the largest percentage increase of all

state pension systems in the country. Erasing more than $8 billion, the unfunded liability of the state's seven systems has dropped to $7.8 billion.

The state's largest system, Teachers, rose from 47.9 percent funded in FY10 to 72.4 percent in FY-19.

The second largest system, Public Employees, improved from 66 percent in FY-10 to 98.6 percent in FY-19.

The noteworthy turnaround is due to a combination of reforms, increased funding, and superior investment performance since the Great Recession.

Oklahoma Public Pension Funded Status

Fiscal Year 2010 ? Fiscal Year 2019

120% 100%

80% 60%

Judges

Police OPERS Law All systems Teachers Firefighters

40% FY-10 FY-11 FY-12 FY-13 FY-14 FY-15 FY-16 FY-17 FY-18 FY-19

OPERS Judges Firefighters Police Teachers Law All systems

FY-10 66.0% 81.3% 53.4% 74.9% 47.9% 73.6% 56.0%

FY-11 80.7% 96.3% 63.7% 93.0% 56.7% 75.9% 66.6%

FY-12 80.2% 95.7% 60.9% 90.2% 54.8% 78.4% 64.9%

FY-13 81.6% 97.3% 58.8% 89.3% 57.2% 81.4% 66.5%

FY-14 88.6%

105.9% 62.1% 94.6% 62.2% 88.6% 72.5%

FY-15 93.6%

110.9% 65.1% 98.2% 66.6% 87.8% 76.0%

FY-16 93.2%

110.8% 65.9% 98.7% 65.7% 87.4% 75.4%

FY-17 94.5%

112.6% 65.4%

101.8% 70.4% 88.5% 78.6%

FY-18 FY-19 97.7% 98.6%

114.8% 111.9% 68.1% 70.8%

102.8% 102.5% 72.9% 72.4% 90.0% 89.6% 81.2% 81.3%

Source: Annual actuarial reports of each system.

Spotlight on Financial Literacy

Soaring student debt is keeping people of all ages from a stable retirement.

Here's how to help.

Student loan debt and retirement savings aren't typically discussed together -- but a new study suggests they should be. TIAA-MIT Age Lab research shows that 84% of Americans with student debt say that paying it back affects their ability to save for retirement.

Of those who are not saving at all for retirement, more than a quarter point to their student loan debt as the reason.

Such findings are especially concerning at a time when an estimated half of all Americans will be financially vulnerable when they retire.

Student loan borrowers face a delicate balancing act in their financial lives as they weigh their responsibility to pay off student debt against other obligations and desires.

The TIAA-MIT Age Lab study found that in addition to the impact on retirement savings, young people saddled with the highest levels of debt are also delaying major milestones such as getting married, buying a home, and having children.

Learn more at MarketWatch.

treasurer. ? Page 4

Oklahoma Economic Report TM

November 2019

October Gross Receipts to the Treasury & General Revenue compared

October Gross Receipts to the Treasury totaled $1.14 billion, while the General Revenue Fund (GRF), as reported by the Office of Management and Enterprise Services, received $553.1 million, or 48.3%, of the total.

The GRF received between 39.7% and 59% of monthly gross receipts during the past 12 months.

From October gross receipts, the GRF received:

? Individual income tax: 72.8%

? Corporate income tax: 49%

? Sales tax: 39.5%

? Use tax: 44.4%

? Gross production-Gas: 73.4%

? Gross production-Oil: 34.5%

? Motor vehicle tax: 4.6%

? Other sources: 33.8%

October GRF allocations were above the estimate by 5%.

October insurance premium taxes totaled $1.76 million, an increase of $1.69 million, or 2,182.4%, from the prior year.

Tribal gaming fees generated $12.3 million during the month, down by $88,928, or 0.7%, from October 2018.

October Gross Receipts to the Treasury show growth

For a second consecutive month,

year. October revenue reports saw

October Gross Receipts to the

collections from the gross production

Treasury are up by less than one

tax on crude oil and natural gas fall by

percent compared

almost 30 percent

to the prior year, suppressed by falling oil and gas production tax and sales tax collections, State Treasurer

"Gross receipts indicate Oklahoma's economy is continuing to grow, albeit quite

Randy McDaniel

modestly."

announced today.

from the prior year, while sales tax receipts were down by about one percent.

"Gross receipts indicate Oklahoma's economy is continuing to

Total monthly

grow, albeit quite

collections from all sources were

modestly, in spite of a pullback in two

$1.14 billion in October, up by $6.1

of the state's major revenue streams,"

million, or 0.5 percent, from last

SEE REVENUE PAGE 6

Monthly Gross Receipts vs. Prior Year

$125

$100

$75

$50

$25

$0

-$25

-$50

Oct-18

Income Tax Gross Production Nov-18 Dec-18 Jan-19 Feb-19

Sales & Use Tax

Motor Vehicle

Mar-19 Apr-19 May-19 Jun-19 Jul-19

Other Aug-19 Sep-19

(In $ millions)

Total Income Tax

Individual

Corporate

Sa(Ilne$s m&iUllisoensT)ax (1) InScoamlees TTaaxx GrUosses PTaroxduction SGarloesssTaPxr(o1d) uction MoottoorrVVeehihcliecle OOtthheerrSSoourucrecse(2s)(2) TOOTTAALLRREEVVENENUUE E

September-18

410.0

320.3

89.7

April-18

464.0

740099..14 6504..76

140150..36 6602.08

111640.04

11,,145033.45

Dollar change (in millions) from prior year

September-19

430.8

337.4

93.4

April-19 466.2 842008..21 7598..81 47135..86 6731.31 112934.18

11,,155871.24

Variance From Prior Year

20.8

5.1%

17.1

5.3%

3.7

4.2%

Variance2F.r2om Prior Year 0.5%

1(111.3.0)

1-50..73%%

193..25

316..64%%

(315.5.0)

-291..92%%

38.23

153..42%%

394.14

281..04%%

1737.89

102..37%%

Source: Office of the State Treasurer

treasurer. ? Page 5

Oklahoma Economic Report TM

November 2019

Revenue

FROM PAGE 5

McDaniel said. "Lower energy prices have pushed down gross production receipts. Additionally, for the fourth time in the past five months, sales tax collections are below those of the prior year."

Monthly receipts for individual and corporate income, use, and motor vehicle taxes are all above those of October 2018 at rates ranging from 25 percent to 1.4 percent. Gross receipts for the past 12 months, at $13.74 million, are up by $1.04 billion, or 8.2 percent.

Medical marijuana revenue

In effect for the past year, Oklahoma's medical marijuana tax of 7 percent, along with sales tax generated at licensed dispensaries, have added $41.3 million to gross receipts in the past 12 months. Of that, $18.1 million has come from the marijuana tax and $23.1 million from sales tax remitted by dispensaries.

In October, marijuana sales generated $6.8 million, including $3 million from the medical marijuana tax and $3.8 million in sales tax from dispensaries.

The figures indicate medical marijuana purchases have totaled $259.1 million during the past year.

Business conditions

The Oklahoma Business Conditions Index for October fell below growth neutral for the second time in the past three months. October's rate of 48.7 is down from 50.1 in September, indicating slow to no economic growth in the next three to six months.

October collections

October gross collections total $1.14 billion, up by $6.1 million, or 0.5 percent, from October 2018.

Gross income tax collections, a combination of individual and corporate income taxes, generated $395.7 million, an increase of $26.3 million, or 7.1 percent, from the previous October.

Individual income tax collections for the month are $373.9 million, up by $21.9 million, or 6.2 percent, from the prior year. Corporate collections are $21.8 million, an increase of $4.4 million, or 25 percent. Large monthly variances are not unusual for corporate income tax collections.

Combined sales and use tax collections, including remittances on behalf of cities and counties, total $459.3 million in October. That is $3.2 million, or 0.7 percent, more than October 2018.

Sales tax collections in October total $399 million, a drop of $3.6 million, or 0.9 percent from the same month of the prior year. Use tax receipts, collected on out-of-state purchases including online sales, generated $60.4 million, an increase of $6.8 million, or 12.8 percent, over the year.

Gross production taxes on oil and natural gas generated $71.6 million in October, a decrease of $30.5 million, or 29.8 percent, from last October. Compared to September 2019 reports, gross production collections are down by $2.2 million, or 3 percent.

Motor vehicle taxes produced $66.9 million, up by $912,072, or 1.4 percent, from the same month of 2018.

Other collections composed of some 60 different sources including taxes on fuel, tobacco, medical marijuana, and alcoholic beverages, produced

SEE REVENUE PAGE 7

Gross Production Tax Collections

October 2017 ? September 2019

$130

$110

(in millions)

$90

$70

$50

Current 12 months

Prior 12 months

$30 Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct

(Total receipts in $ millions)

Source: Oklahoma Tax Commission

treasurer. ? Page 6

Oklahoma Economic Report TM

November 2019

Revenue

FROM PAGE 6

Combined sales and use taxes for the About Gross Receipts to the

$151 million during the month. That 12 months generated $5.61 billion,

Treasury

is $6.1 million, or 4.2 percent, more than last October.

an increase of $264 million, or 4.9 percent, from the prior period.

The Office of the State Treasurer developed the monthly Gross Receipts

Twelve-month collections

Gross sales tax receipts total $4.89

to the Treasury report in order to

Gross revenue totals $13.74 billion

billion, up by $103.8 million, or 2.2 percent, during the period. Use tax

provide a timely and broad view of the state's economy.

from the past 12 months, November

collections generated $718.8 million,

2018 through October 2019. That is $1.04 billion, or 8.2 percent,

an increase of $160.1 million, or 28.7 percent over the previous 12 months.

It is released in conjunction with the General Revenue Fund report

above collections from the previous

from the Office of Management and

EEccoonnoommicicRReesseeaarrcchh&&AAnnaalylyssisis OO1K2K-LmLAonAHthHOpeOrMioMAd.A E EMMP PL LOOY YMME ENNTOiTl aSnSdEgECasCUgrUoRsRsI pTIroTYdYucCtioCOnOtMaxMMMI SI SS SIEOInOtNerNprise Services, which provides

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collections brought in $1.1 billion TduriSngEthCe 1U2 RmoI nTthYs, upCbOy $M24M6.9I

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information to state agencies for I bOudNgetary planning purposes.

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previous 12 months.

The General Revenue Fund, the state's

E...NBrTingSingE OCkUlahRoImTa'Ys LCabOorMMMarIkeSt StoILmOiafeiNn! operating account, receives less

Economic Research & Analysis OOkRRKKkKlRRLLaEElLI$oCmaLLhAAn4roEEihdA.orl61AAHHlipiv.o5SS4omHoinEdEOObrmpau::ifeOaltoaNNlreMMiarl'cooosciMetvnvn'ohnseeAA,cletmumulo,AeppmfubcbnretEEeeboeirnrreoymEiMMton11ae$md99Mstx2h,,m,aPP4ca2e2pro8n0P0epLLlp.11ll5ir$eL99noOOil5cmocotO2yrriieoYY4lpymlan.iYe3osmMMsrenietMo,ooedEEntfa.En...ltNNtNBrTTarrTMmifOinratntoRRoicehgltmrtlReioeieEEonrarmtnEhgssPPvmeoefeoPOuoOOohtrrrfoikOvcact$lehRRlivae1elseiRh5ncegTTs1.gooe82Tslnmplumeme??ecaurripo?tla'iliosnptiOOooedtniOLhdn.nsccs,ai$t.oncttb1oTrooOot.th52aoOribb5lscpM$bbieeect7siraole9rrtcalri2eonkorbn.225nebte,2t,00ert0o11r1Ltwacs99htoniai9afudttenhner!thtefihuefauenslfn,droadesfnms. td,haraeeinpmsdptieaotrttreetpd'isoatingodreocidnisttsiroeersoebctaahenteeidprsts

$26.7 million, or 5.4 percent, over the up by $241.4 million, or 18.4 percent, Learn more here.

KLAHOMA EMPLOYMENT REPORT ? knakmehllampoahlmopophylmaorm'yesoamev'snimeeotsnauretassaaroteas1n'ots2aernollamrsyoluelasoytednnoajttudo3hesj.ust63mes..dtp6eeudpprencurelencnomeetnmpyintlpoimOnlyocOmyteocmetbnnoeetbnrter.tarTr.traheTatehemfrestmooteasvmoteeavdm'ttesehud'sepueosptpaoervstae3oosve.n3oiaos.np3lulayespllurayecpdreapecjnudreOtsjinuoitintesdncidtnOe. tducOoOntuocenbtbmoceebrmepte,lorpwor,lyhwobmi2lyheemiel0tenhrette1nhrtUea9rt.UaeSt..ewS.awsauspup

ap2heporecmrecane'tsantgsaeegaepsoopinnoatinlcltyocmaodmpjauprsaetrededtdoutonOecOmtocpbtoleobrey2rm021e08n1.t8r.ate moved up to 3.3 percent in October, while the U.S.

kmlpalohymoenmt raate'srosue tno 3e.6mpeprcelnot yinmOcteobnert. Trhae stteate'ms seoavsoenaslly uadpjustiend uOnemcptlooybmeenrt rate was up

State jobless rate rises slightly in October percentage point compared to October 2018.

apmheporlcmoeyanm'tsOOaegsccnOeetttoocarptbbasooeeotberrinne22Uatrr00onlc2lU11Osiyot0n99eekm1Oaidlta9etdkSpohdljatauoaS3hrmstte.eoat6aOsemdtedpastkoeulranOcUUeennrr33chUaanm..eet36ttnr33oommtee%%a..epb**i36tppmnmele%%..o*prOay.2cm0tUo1ebn8ne.teLLrr1.aamLa6bbT1a14toohe6b,,prr8314eo56ffm,,loor8334osrr56f,,occot5034yavee60r,,ct50**e0mee60d'*00seuspneEEttaomms1ER53oppme118ll.noo53p,,75apyy18l91ommpl,,l75o20yye9ee1,,m80rr2nn0a40cte,,ttd807**en40jtnu70*tsitneUUdnnOUeeuncmmnet5ppome,ll8b5oomp65e,yyl805ommrp65,,,y7005leem10wo,,nn703eyhtt10**nm30ilte*etnhterUaTrta.heStee.wsfaoesrausOopknlaalhlyomadajuinscteredajsoebdletsos3.3

* D*aDtaataadajudsjuteOsdtkefldoarhfosoremsaesaaosnoanl afalc3fat.o3cr%tsors Octob1e,8r523,056109

1,792,847

60,713

percent in October, one-tenth of a

United States

Un3.e6m%p.

*ODcatotabaedrju2s0te1d9for seasonal fUacnrUateotnmeres*pm. p.

OKOLKALHAOHMOAMOkAlahoma

r3a.3trea%*te*

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O* DKaLtaAaHdOjuMsteAd SfoerSpsetep'a1ts9'1o9nal farc3at.o2t3er%.s*2%

AOucAgtu''11g99'19 33..323%%.2%

SJeupJlytu''l11y99'19

OKLAHOMA

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Un333333ra......e222222t333me%%%%%%...*222p%%%.

JOuOncceOtt c'''111t899'18 333...1233%%%.1%

Sept '19

3.2%

* D*aDtaataadajudsjutesdtefMdoAruafosgyre''sa11es99aosnoanl afalc33fat..o22cr%%tsors

164,364,000 Labor force* LaLbaobrofor rfcoerc*e*

1,853,560

16,8415,3865,5436,05060 La1b,81o5,r80f5,o80r1,c8e1*8

11,,88154,8354,,55562,50020 11,,88153,803,,83813,38030 La11b,,881o43,r851f3,,o56124r,c600e4*0 11,,88132,882,,73833,73033 111,,,8881335,86133,,,6656646,600060 1,850,818 11,,882485,,753230

158,510,000 Employment*

5,855,000 Unemployment*

EmEpmlopylomyemnet*nt* UnUenmepmlopylomyemnet*nt*

1,792,847

60,713

1518,75191,7209,80240,87047

5,865056,70010,73013

Emp1lo,7y19m,71e9,2n12,t27*27 Unemplo5y9m5,59e9,n51t9*1

11,,77198,7268,,85644,57242

65085,,79817,93878

11,,77197,7197,,28920,8708

55985,,55892,51222

Emp11lo,,771y87m,7637e,,533n46,t32*63 Unemplo55y88m5,,928e77,n287t7*7

11,,77167,7996,,68980,61881

55985,,05952,02252

111,,,7771779,79327,,,7389564,793759

5566805,,,9276071,917301

1,791,227 11,,776896,,658412

Source: O555E989S,,,C095579281

percentage point above September's rate. The U.S. unemployment rate rose to 3.6 percent in October, up from 3.5 percent in September, according to figures released by the Oklahoma Employment Security Commission.

Since October 2018, the number of working Oklahomans has increased by 13,088, and the number of those listed as unemployed has risen by 3,812.

JOuclyt ''1189

33..12%%

11,,883368,,636300

11,,777799,,785098

5568,,950212

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* Data adjusted for seasonal factors

Oklahoma Economic Report TM

November 2019

Economic Indicators

Unemployment Rate

January 1980 ? October 2019

11.0

Gross Receipts vs. Oil & Gas Employment

January 2008 ? October 2019

80.0

$14.00

Oil & Gas Employment

12-Month Gross Receipts

9.0

65.0

$12.50

7.0

50.0

$11.00

5.0

3.0

OK-3.3%

35.0

U.S.

U.S.-3.6%

Oklahoma

12-Month Gross Receipts (in $ billions) Oil & Gas Employment (in thousands)

$9.50

1.0

20.0

$8.00

80

85

90

95

0

5

10

15

20

08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20

5

10 Shaded areas denote U.S. recessions

15 20 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

Shaded area denotes U.S. recession Sources: Bureau of Labor Statistics & State Treasurer

Leading Economic Index

January 2001 ? September 2019

5.0

2.5

0

-2.5

U.S.

-5.0

Oklahoma

01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20

This graph predicts six-month economic movement by tracking leading indicators,

including initial unemployment claims, interest rate spreads, manufacturing and earnings.

Numbers above 0 indicate anticipated growth.

Shaded areas denote U.S. recessions

Source: Federal Reserve of Philadelphia

Oklahoma Stock Index

Top capitalized state companies January 2009 ? October 2019

$70

$50 Avg=$43.57 $30

$45.36

$10 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20

Shaded area denotes U.S. recession

Source: Office of the State Treasurer

Active Rigs Active Rigs

Oklahoma Oil Prices & Active Rigs

January 2011 ? November 2019

300

$120

Active Rigs

Price

225

$90

150

$60

75

$30

0

$0

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

18

19

20

Sources: Baker Hughes & U.S. Energy Information Administration

Price per MMBtu Price per BBL

Oklahoma Natural Gas Prices & Active Rigs

January 2011 ? November 2019

160

$8

Active Rigs

Price

120

$6

80

$4

40

$2

0

$0

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

18

19

20

Sources: Baker Hughes & U.S. Energy Information Administration

treasurer. ? Page 8

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