PDF Subprime Auto Amy Martin Lead Analyst - Auto ABS Senior ...
Subprime Auto Loan ABS Update
Annual Non-Prime Auto Financing Conference NAF Association
Plano, Texas June 1, 2017
Amy Martin Lead Analyst ? Auto ABS Senior Director Structured Finance Ratings
Copyright ? 2017 by S&P Global. All rights reserved.
Agenda
? Size Of The Auto Loan And Subprime Auto Loan ABS Markets ? Subprime Auto Finance Trends ? Collateral Characteristics Of Subprime Auto Loan ABS ? Deterioration In Subprime Auto Loan ABS Collateral Performance
(Vintage Analysis) ? Comparison of 18 Issuers To S&P's Subprime Auto Loan Static Index ? Subprime Auto Loan ABS Ratings Performance Remains Stable ? Outlook
2
Auto ABS Issuance Tracks Auto Sales
U.S. Auto Sales, Auto Lease ABS Issuance and Auto Loan ABS Issuance
Auto Lease ABS Issuance ($ Bil)
Auto Loan ABS Issuance ($ Bil)
Auto Sales (Million Units)
120
18
100
103
16
100
88
87
89
14
80
70
60
54
40 37
74
74
12
67
69 68 67 70
61
10
54
45 47 49
8
6
4
20
4.4
4.5
3.2
2.3
3.4
1.7
4.7
14.3 13.3
6.8
5.1
8.5
8.3
14.0 15.9 17.5 14.3 15.2 9.7 10.7
2
0
0
$ Billion
Auto Sales (Million Units)
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Est
Source: S&P Global Ra6ngs
3
Subprime Dollar Issuance
% Of Total Retail Auto ABS
$25 $21.6
$20 $16.3
$15
$10
$23.3 $23.1
$18.4
$17.6
$20.0
40.0% 35.0% 30.0%
25.0%
$11.6 $8.7
20.0% $7.9 15.0%
Billion $
$5
$2.2 $1.2
10.0% 5.0%
$0
0.0%
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
YTD
Issuance ($)
% of Total Dollar Issuance
Source: S&P Global Ra6ngs
4
Top 3 Subprime Issuers As a % of Subprime Auto Loan ABS
100.0% 95.0% 90.0%
100.0% 90.6%
95.3%
89.7%
85.0% 80.0% 75.0%
72.1%
79.2% 73.7%
70.0% 65.0% 60.0%
67.1%
65.3% 66.8% 57.6%
55.0%
50.0% 2006 2007 2008
1 Capital One AMCAR AMCAR
2 AMCAR Capital One CPS
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
AMCAR
Santander Santander Santander Santander Santander Santander Santander ($7.2 bn) ($9.8 bn) ($6.7bn)
DriveTime AMCAR
GM Financial
GM Financial
GM Financial
GM Financial ($4.2 bn)
GM Financial ($4.4 bn)
GM Financial ($4.9 bn)
3 HSBC
Drive
CAC
Santander
Pres6ge DriveTime DriveTime CPS
Exeter
Exeter Exeter Flagship ($1.7 bn) ($1.4 bn) ($1.6 bn)
Source: S&P Global Ra6ngs
5
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