ISyE 3104: Introduction to Supply Chain Modeling ...



ISyE 3104: Introduction to Supply Chain Modeling: Manufacturing and Warehousing

Instructor: Spyros Reveliotis

Spring 2001

Homework #1

Due Date: Friday, 2/2/01

Reading Assignment:

1. For material related to the introductory part of the course, you should refer to the PowerPoint presentation discussed in class (it can be downloaded from my homepage: ) and also, to Chapter 1: Sections 1.0 – 1.9 in your textbook. For those of you interested in some more material, you can always take a look at the introductory chapters of the Operations Management books reserved in the library.

2. For material related to forecasting, you can again refer to my introductory handout on the topic (to be found in the aforementioned site) and Chapter 2 in your textbook. The sections covered in detail are:

• 2.1-2.7,

• from 2.8 we covered Holt’s method, but as I said in class, it is advisable that you refresh yourselves on linear regression (there is also some concise treatment of regression analysis in Appendix 2-B)

• 2.9 (only the subsections on “Seasonal Factors for Stationary Series” and “Winter’s method”; not the material on “Seasonal decomposition using Moving Averages”)

• It is also advisable that you take a look at Section 2.10.

• Snapshot Application of Pg 76 (there is a number of interesting ideas in this case study!)

Problems:

1. From your textbook:

• Pg 61: Problem 3

• Pg 75: Problems 22, 23, 24. Also, for Problem 22, answer the following question:

• How should the sales estimate for May, obtained in part (a), be adjusted, in order to ensure that the probability of experiencing a stock-out during that month is less than 5%?

• Pg 81: Problem 30 (but instead of using linear regression for obtaining estimates for S0 and G0, as suggested in the problem use the following values:

• G0 = [(183-133)+(285-183)]/2

• S0 = 133 – G0

i.e., the model initialization scheme suggested in class).

• Pg 87: Problem 33

• Pg. 92: Problem 35

Essentially, each of the above problems intends to make you revise and apply a particular concept or technique discussed in class. Feel free to use an Excel spreadsheet to organize your computation, but, please, present clearly the various steps in the executed approach and the obtained results. Also, feel free to download and reuse the spreadsheets for the examples on Holt’s method and on Seasonal forecasting that I have in my homepage.

2. Use the time-series based methods presented in class, in order to obtain sales estimates for each of the five products of the McGuinness Microbrewery, for year 2001. For each product,

• justify:

• the selection of the model,

• the data-(sub)set used for computing the sales estimates,

• and discuss the quality of the obtained estimates.

Extra Credit (15%)

Pg 102: Problem 44

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