Chapter 8 Examples and Notes - Amazon S3

[Pages:4]Homework Assignment 6 Chapter 8 Examples and Notes

Heather Buja PH160, Section A4

8.1 #3, #9 8.3 #2 8.4 #3 8.6 #5 8.7 #3, #6 8.8 #5, #6 8.9 Follow instructions to identify errors relevant for 8.8 #5 8.10 #5, #10

8.1: (1) Identify target group, sample, and relevant property; (2) indicate whether the argument is strong or weak; (3) if weak, indicate whether the problem is sample that's too small, not representative, or both

#3: Doctors used to think that anti-arrhythmic drugs were the cure for irregular heartbeats. They overprescribed these drugs and fifty thousand patients died. Doctors used to believe that the cure for ulcers was a bland diet, but that turned out to be wrong too. Every new treatment we see these days sounds great. But history tells us that they will all turn out to be worthless.

(1) Target group: Doctors

Sample: Doctors who failed to cured irregular heartbeats because they provided a

false cure, doctors who incorrectly believed a bland diet cured ulcers

Relevant Property: wrong (failed) cures or treatments

(2) Weak Argument

(3) Sample size is too small. There are only two incidents cited where doctors came up

with a wrong treatment for such diseases and there are many right cures that

doctors

have found, as well as wrong one for the vast amount of diseases that exist.

#9: Two hundred samples of water taken from many sites along the Charles River show unsafe concentrations of toxic chemicals. Obviously the water in the Charles River is unsafe.

(1) Target group: Water in the Charles River Sample: 200 samples of water taken from the Charles River Relevant Property: unsafe (toxic)

(2) Strong Argument

8.3: (1) Determine whether the poll results offer strong support for the pollster's conclusion, and, if they don't, (2) specify the source of the problem (sample too small, unrepresentative, nonrandom sampling)

#2: Anita conducts a survey to determine if Americans are willing to support the arts by contributing money directly to local theater groups. One night she and her assistants interview five hundred people who are attending a performance of a musical at the city's

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Heather Buja PH160, Section A4

biggest theater. To help ensure random selection, they purposely select every other patron they encounter for interviewing. There is only one interview question: "Are you willing to support the arts by giving money to local theater groups?" Ninety-four percent of the interviewees say yes. Anita later reports that a large majority of Americans are willing to support the arts by giving money to local theater groups.

(1) Poll results do not support Anita's conclusion (2) The sample is unrepresentative. The target group is Americans. However, Anita is

only surveying Americans who go to that theater, and it is safe to assume that if they are going to a theater and paying money, they are going to be inclined to support local theater groups. Not all Americans go to theaters. She is also failing to represent the different demographics of America. Also, her sampling is not random (I think), random sampling is not every other person, but should be determined by random methods.

8.4: Indicate which conclusions from the accompanying list would be strongly supported by the premise given. Assume that all statements are true.

#3: Four out of five of the college's English majors hate anything written by William Faulkner

A. Eighty percent of the college's English majors hate anything written by William Faulkner.

8.6: Evaluate each of the following passages and indicate whether it contains (a) an argument by analogy, (b) a literary analogy, or (c) an enumerative induction. If the passage contains an argument by analogy, indicate the total number of things (instances) being compared, the relevant similarities mentioned or implied, the conclusion, and whether the argument is strong or weak.

#5: Hume's passage: Argument Type: (a) Argument by analogy. The total number of things being compared: (2) the world and human-made machines Relevant similarities mentioned/implied: 3: (1) the world is like a machine divided into many lesser machines, (2) said machines are adjusted to each other with accuracy, (3) these machines are an adaptation of means to ends. Conclusion: There exists a deity who has a mind similar to the human mind and human intelligence. Strength: Weak.

*Note: I thought this argument was basically saying the world has the same qualities in terms of design as machines designed by humans (I mentioned these qualities in the third part of my answer). And since machines have a designer that designed them this way, the world must have a designer similar to humans. However, I think the argument is weak for two reasons: (1) the world is natural, while machines are man made and (2) I think this proves that provided a deity exists, then this deity is similar to the human

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Heather Buja PH160, Section A4

mind/intelligence. But it seems that the argument rests on the assumption there is a deity, but doesn't prove there is a deity. I might be completely off here though.

8.7: Evaluate each of the following arguments by analogy, indicating (1) the things (instances) being compared, (2) the relevant similarities mentioned or implied, (3) whether diversity among multiple cases is a significant factor, (4) the conclusion, and (5) whether the argument is strong or weak.

#3: "If a single cell, under appropriate conditions, becomes a person in the space of a few years, there can surely be no difficulty in understanding how, under appropriate conditions, a cell may, in the course of untold millions of years, give origin to the human race"

(1) Instances being compared: 2. A cell that becomes a person in few years and a cell that (evolves?) over the span of million years giving origin to the human race

(2) Relevant similarities mentioned: (1) cell becoming a human under certain conditions (3) Whether diversity among multiple cases is a significant factor: Yes. The conditions

under which a cell becomes a human (I'm thinking of a fertilized egg in a womb [mammals] or underwater [amphibians]) are not the same conditions in space (universe). But this is not mentioned. (4) The conclusion: The human race originated via (evolution of?) the cell under certain conditions (5) Strength: Weak.

#6: "If we survey the universe, so far as it falls under our knowledge, it bears a great resemblance to an animal or organized body, and seems actuated with a like principle of life and motion. A continual circulation of matter in it proceeds no disorder: a continual waste in every part is incessantly repaired: the closest sympathy is perceived throughout the whole system. And each part of member, in performing its proper offices, operates both to its own preservation and to that of the whole. The world, therefore, I infer, is an animal, and the Deity is the soul of the world, activating it and activated by it"

(1) Instances being compared: (2) the universe and an animal's body (2) Relevant similarities mentioned: 3. (1) Actuated with a principle of life and motion,

(2) circulation of matter proceeding no disorder, (3) each part performs its functions to its own preservation and to that of the whole (3) Whether diversity among multiple cases is a significant factor: No. In comparing the world to animals, it seems that all animals have these qualities. (4) The conclusion: The world is an animal and the deity is the soul of the world activating the world and is activated by it. (5) Strength: Weak.

*Note: The second part of the conclusion (deity is the soul of the world activating the world and is activated by it) is not supported by any premises. But the first part of it, the world is an animal is supported by the relevant similarities of life and motion, functions resulting in order, each part has a function that contributes to the whole.

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Heather Buja PH160, Section A4

8.8: Identify the conclusion and whether the argument appeals to the method of agreement, the method of disagreement, the joint method of agreement and difference, or correlation. Indicate whether the argument is strong or weak.

#5: For most of the school year the number of disciplinary actions taken weekly because of student misconduct at North High School has remained about the same--roughly ten a week. But for the last month the number of actions per week has gone down considerably-- to about six per week. There can be only one reason: Last moth the Ten Commandments were posted in the hallway outside the principal's office. This posting was the only significant recent change in the school.

Conclusion: The posting of the Ten Commandments reduced the number of disciplinary actions. Appeal to: Correlation. Method of Difference Strength: Weak.

#6: In Instance 1, when factors X, Y, and Z were present, E happened. In Instance 2, when factors X, Y, and P were present, E happened. In Instance 3, when factors X and Z were present, E did not happen. In Instance 4, when Z and P were present, E did not happen. And in Instance 5, when X, Z, and P were present, E did not happen. Therefore, Y caused E.

Conclusion: Y caused E. Appeal to: The Joint Method of Agreement and Difference. Strength: Strong.

8.9: For 8.8 #5, identify errors in causal reasoning that are most likely to occur in the circumstances indicated. The possibilities include: (a) misidentifying or overlooking relevant factors, (b) being misled by coincidence, (c) falling for the post hoc fallacy, and (d) confusing cause and effect.

(c) Falling for the post hoc fallacy

8.10: For each of the following causal statements, indicate whether the specified cause is (a) a necessary condition, (b) a sufficient condition, (c) a necessary and sufficient condition, or (d) neither a necessary nor a sufficient condition

#5: The mighty Casey hit the ball out of the park, winning the game by one run.

(d) Neither a necessary nor a sufficient condition. Sufficient condition

#10: Simone lost weight by exercising regularly.

(d) Neither a necessary nor a sufficient condition

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