National Weather Service Situation Report

National Weather

National

WeatherService

Service

City, Moines,

State IA

Des

Situation

Situation Report

Report

Tuesday,

Tuesday,October

October 09,

09, 2018 4:40 AM

[HazardofHeadline]

Several More Rounds

Rain Today and Tonight

Message of the Day:

? Additional moderate to heavy rainfall exacerbates areal and flash

flooding concerns

? River flooding becoming more widespread as rain keeps falling

? Risk of severe storms later today ¨C damaging winds and a few

tornadoes possible

Important Forecast Changes

? Increasing severe weather threat later today

? Minor changes to rainfall amounts, mainly northwest

? Changes to some river flooding forecasts

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Situation Report

National Weather Service

Des Moines, IA

Tuesday, October 09, 2018 4:40 AM

Flooding Potential Through Tonight

Potential Impacts:

? Flash flooding possible

? Water over roads and rises on local creeks/streams

? More significant river flooding possible

Certainty & Considerations

? High confidence in rainfall

? Medium confidence in amounts and location

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National Weather Service

Des Moines, IA

Situation Report

Tuesday, October 09, 2018 4:40 AM

Severe

Today

Into Tonight

TwoStorm

More Risk

DaysLater

of Heat

& Humidity

Key Points

Hazards:

Strong, gusty winds

Tornadoes possible

Lightning

Areas Impacted:

Southeast half of Iowa

Timing & Duration:

Afternoon into early tonight

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Impacts:

Damage to Property/Vehicles

Damage to Trees

Tornado threat

Certainty & Considerations:

High confidence in storms

Low confidence in precise location

and in occurrence of tornadoes

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Situation Report

National Weather Service

Des Moines, IA

Tuesday, October 09, 2018 4:40 AM

Flood Watches Through Wednesday Morning

Potential Impacts:

? Considerable overland flooding in low lying areas

? Ponding of water on roads, possibly over roads

? Rises on local creeks/streams

Certainty & Considerations

? High confidence in rainfall

? Medium confidence in amounts and location

Flood and Flash Flood Watches for nearly all of Iowa

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National Weather Service

Des Moines, IA

Situation Report

Tuesday, October 09, 2018 4:40 AM

Expected River Flood Impacts This Week

Potential Impacts and notes:

? Flood category projections on next page are based both

on rain that has already fallen and on expected rainfall

? If the additional rainfall materializes as forecast,

widespread flooding will occur across much of Iowa

? Only Moderate or Major flooding forecasts noted here,

with minor flooding or within bank rises anticipated at

other sites

? Confidence low to medium in these forecasts due to

forecast rainfall uncertainties and future reservoir release

changes

Timing

? Flooding will begin today and continue through at least

this weekend at many sites

Note: Flooding along Des Moines River at 2nd Ave in

Des Moines is highly dependent upon Saylorville

Reservoir releases and not listed.

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