S&P 500 Industry Briefing: Packaged Foods

S&P 500 Industry Briefing: Packaged Foods

Yardeni Research, Inc.

July 15, 2023

Dr. Ed Yardeni

516-972-7683 eyardeni@

Joe Abbott

732-497-5306 jabbott@

Please visit our sites at blog.

thinking outside the box

Table Of Contents Table Of Contents

S&P 500 Packaged Foods

Stock Price Index

1

Forward Revenues & Earnings with Annual Squiggles

2

Annual Growth Squiggles

3

Margins & NERI

4

Forward Growth & Valuation

5

July 15, 2023 / S&P 500 Industry Briefing: Packaged Foods

Yardeni Research, Inc.



Stock Price Index

Figure 1.

825

S&P 500 PACKAGED FOODS & MEATS STOCK PRICE INDEX* 700 (CAG CPB GIS HRL HSY K KHC LW MDLZ MKC SJM TSN)

575 450

325

200

825 700 7/14 575 450

325

200



75

75

95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25

200-day moving average. * Ratio scale.

Source: Standard & Poor's and Haver Analytics.

Figure 2.

975

S&P 500 PACKAGED FOODS INDEX, FORWARD EARNINGS, & VALUATION

825

Packaged Foods Index

675

07/14/23

Blue Angels Implied Price Index*

525

07/06/23

375

975 x24

825

x18

675

525 x12

375

225

225



75

75

95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25

* Implied price index calculated using forward earnings times forward P/Es. Source: Standard & Poor's and I/B/E/S data by Refinitiv.

Page 1 / July 15, 2023 / S&P 500 Industry Briefing: Packaged Foods

Yardeni Research, Inc.



Forward Revenues & Earnings with Annual Squiggles

Figure 3.

440

S&P 500 PACKAGED FOODS & MEATS REVENUES PER SHARE

(analysts' average forecasts, ratio scale) 390

440

7/6

24

390

23

340

340

290

290

240

240

Consensus Forecasts

Annual estimates

190

Forward revenues*

190



140

140

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

* Time-weighted average of consensus estimates for current year and next year. Monthly through December 2005, then weekly. Source: I/B/E/S data by Refinitiv.

Figure 4.

47

S&P 500 PACKAGED FOODS & MEATS OPERATING EPS 40 (analysts' average forecasts, ratio scale)

33

Consensus Forecasts

Annual estimates

26

Forward earnings*

19

47

24

40

23

7/6

33

26

19

12

12



5

5

95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25

* Time-weighted average of consensus estimates for current year and next year. Monthly through December 2005, then weekly. Source: I/B/E/S data by Refinitiv.

Page 2 / July 15, 2023 / S&P 500 Industry Briefing: Packaged Foods

Yardeni Research, Inc.



Annual Growth Squiggles

Figure 5.

10

10

S&P 500 PACKAGED FOODS ANNUAL REVENUE GROWTH FORECASTS*

8 (based on analysts' consen1s1us estimates, percent, weekly)

22 8

6

21

6

18

4

13

23 4

2

2011 (8.2)

2012 (-8.2)

0

2013 (4.0)

2014 (0.5)

19

24

2

20

17

14

0

2015 (-4.5)

-2

2016 (-8.5)

-2

2017 (0.9)

-4

2018 (5.5)

-4

2019 (2.4)

15

-6

2020 (1.4)

-6

2021 (6.0)

2022 (8.4)

-8

2023 (4.6)

12

16

-8

2024 (2.7)

Latest data thru 07/06/23



-10

-10

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

Source: I/B/E/S data by Refinitiv.

Figure 6.

20

20

S&P 500 PACKAGED FOODS ANNUAL EARNINGS GROWTH FORECASTS*

(based on analysts' consensus estimates, percent, weekly)

15

16

15

10

14

24

10

13 11

17 18

5

20

21

22

5

0

15

0

2011 (6.7)

2020 (5.2)

2012 (-8.9)

2013 (8.2)

-5

2014 (10.1)

2015 (0.7)

2021 (4.7)

2022 (4.0)

19

2023 (-6.3)

2024 (10.0)

-5 23

2016 (14.9)

12

-10

2017 (8.1)

-10

2018 (7.0)

2019 (-3.4)

Latest data thru 07/06/23



-15

-15

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

Source: I/B/E/S data by Refinitiv.

Page 3 / July 15, 2023 / S&P 500 Industry Briefing: Packaged Foods

Yardeni Research, Inc.



 ................
................

In order to avoid copyright disputes, this page is only a partial summary.

Google Online Preview   Download