Time Series Analysis with Pandas - Marquette University
[Pages:84]Time Series Analysis with Pandas
Thomas Schwarz, SJ
Time Series
? Study of statistical data that depends on the time
? Examples:
? births in the US on a given day
? names given to children in a certain year
? exchange rates
?...
Introduction to Time Series
Introduction to Time Series
? Time Series Data is highly
correlated with itself
? Normal statistical descriptions
such as mean are not very useful
? Temperature, stock market,
gas prices have long-term trends
? Temperature and gas prices
have seasonal trends
Introduction to Time Series
? Dealing with time data:
? Generate time plot to see what is happening
? Usually import from csv and transform data
? Determine optically trends, cycles, outliers, undefined
or obviously wrong values
? Determine whether there is a need for transformation
? e.g. our stock exchange data is normalized to make
DOW and DAX comparable
Introduction to Time Series
? Typical transformations:
? Linear normalizations
? Logarithmic, exponential
? E.g. variance grows with mean --> Logarithmic
transform
? Make a multiplicative dependence additive
? timevalue = trend * seasonal * random -->
Logarithmic: timevalue = trend+seasonal+random
Introduction to Time Series
? Filtering: Transform time series (xt) into other time series (yt)
? Smoothing out local variations
? E.g. Linear smoothing with weights
a-s, a-s+1, ..., a-1, a0, a1, ..., ar-1, ar
r
? yt = axt+
=-s
?
Eg. Moving average:
yt =
1 2n +
1
n
=-n
xt+
Introduction to Time Series
Median Smoothing with a Window of 10 of the Chenai Temperature Data
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