Egg Markets Overview - Agricultural Marketing Service

Egg Markets Overview

A weekly publication of the USDA AMS Livestock and Poultry Program, Livestock, Poultry, and Grain Market News Division

March 25, 2022

Wholesale prices for cartoned shell eggs continue to post sharp gains with limited offerings and light to moderate supplies. Interest is moderate to mostly good and trading is moderate to active. Wholesale prices for graded loose eggs continue to post sharp advances rivaling the rise seen in the early stages of the COVID pandemic in April 2020 as offerings remain tight and supplies are falling to a light to moderate level. Interest is good to very good and trading is moderate to active. Concerns over potential supply disruptions stemming from recent outbreaks of highly pathogenic avian influenza in commercial flocks is keen on marketer's minds as the Easter marketing season has arrived. The volume of trailer load sales this week decreased 10% into next week on reduced product availability. Prices for national trading of trucklot quantities of graded, loose, White Large shell eggs rose $0.71 to $2.099 per dozen with a higher undertone. The wholesale price on the New York market for Large cartoned shell eggs delivered to retailers rose $0.88 to $2.77 per dozen with a higher undertone. The Midwest wholesale price for Large, white, shell eggs delivered to warehouses rose $0.25 to $1.54 per dozen with a higher undertone. Prices paid to producers in the Midwest for Large cartoned shell eggs were up sharply, $0.93 to $2.28 per dozen with a higher undertone. The California benchmark for Large shell eggs increased $0.36 to $2.39 per dozen with a higher undertone. Delivered prices on the California-compliant wholesale loose egg market increased $0.77 to $2.770 per dozen with a firm to higher undertone.

Consumer demand for shell eggs improved over the past week but remains average for this time of year. Grocery retailers returned shell eggs to their ad space and at price levels too good to pass. Demand among marketers is strong as they work aggressively to aggregate supplies for anticipated needs for the coming Easter demand period, now about a week away. Recent outbreaks of highly pathogenic avian influenza in the Upper Midwest production region has placed a sense of urgency in the marketplace as offerings are expected to remain tight on reduced production. The production of Large eggs, the size typically in highest demand, is down slightly to 49%, reflecting last week's increased consumer interest.

Weekly Loose Shell Egg, Large, White, National Index (f.o.b. dock, cents per dozen)

270 2020

225

180

135

90

45

0

J

F

M

A

M

J

J

Source: USDA AMS L&P Livestock, Poultry, and Grain Market News

A

S

O

Weekly U.S. Table Egg Demand (Shell Egg Demand Index)

2020

40

30

20

10

0

-10

-20

J

F

M

A

M

J

J

Source: USDA AMS L&P Livestock, Poultry, and Grain Market News

A

S

O

2021

2022

N

D

2021

2022

N

D

Promotional activity for conventional shell eggs in retail outlets retreats sharply and the average ad price jumps $0.56 to $1.59 per dozen, offering little buying incentive. Retail purchases for delivery into this week were estimated to be down 5% from the prior week. Promotional activity for specialty shell eggs declines with cage-free and nutritionallyenhance offerings leading the category. Feature activity for UEP-defined cage-free shell eggs is down slightly and accounts for 39% of all shell egg types on feature. The average ad price gained $0.13 to $2.86 per dozen, its highest level since April 2020. The average ad price spread between 12-packs of Large caged eggs and UEP cage-free eggs narrowed by $0.43 per dozen to a spread of $1.27 per dozen.

The overall inventory of shell eggs declined nearly 3% and the nation-wide inventory of

Egg Per Capita Disappearance vs. Weekly Est. Production (as of March 2022)

17,4950

2022 est. 2021 2020

17,3900

17,2850

1,800 71

1,750 70

1,700 69

1,650

71.0 69.7 72.1

69.5 68.8 69.3

71.8 69.3 71.1

73.7 72.7 72.8

68

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53

I

II

III

IV

Source: USDA ERS; AMS L&P Livestock, Poultry, and Grain Market News

Source: USDA AMS Livestock & Poultry Program, Livestock, Poultry, and Grain Market News Division

Egg Markets Overview

Large eggs declined 4%. The inventory of Large eggs in the key Midwest production region increased 4% as recent retail business slows. The inventory share of Large class shell eggs declined to a 49% share of all shell egg stocks on inventory at the start of the week. Stocks of cage-free eggs decreased 1% at the start of the week as supplies moved to support retail promotions. The inventory of nutritionally-enhanced shell eggs rose 9% as retail features slowed. Supplies of organic eggs declined 1% as retail activity remains flat. Breaking stock inventories decreased 2% as breakers drew from stocks to limit exposure to a very strong spot market. Total estimated table egg production was unchanged from last week and last year at an estimated 57 thousand cases over last year's level.

Wholesale prices for breaking stock in the Central States increased $0.55 to $1.90 with a firm to higher undertone. Offerings are light while supplies are light to moderate. Demand is good and trading is moderate to active for reduced offerings. Schedules are full-time. The volume of eggs processed over the past week decreased about 1%, representing a 31% share of weekly table egg production. Production of whole egg was about unchanged while production of components rose slightly with whites up a half percent and yolk up nearly 1%. Dried egg production was down 2% and inedible production declined 5%. Breaking yields without inedible declined slightly to 41.16 pounds per case broken with a few more lighter-weight eggs in the mix.

Wholesale prices for whole certified liquid whole eggs are too few to report with a higher undertone. Offerings are light to short, demand is good, and trading is active. The wholesale price for frozen whole egg products rose sharply, $0.73 to $2.03 per pound and the price for liquid whites increased sharply by $0.52 to $1.42 per pound. The undertone is higher. Offerings and supplies are light for good demand and the pace of trading is active. Wholesale prices for dried egg products are up sharply across the board. Prices for whole dried egg rose $4.70 to $9.30 per pound, prices for dried yolk gained $3.85 to $8.00 per pound, and prices for dried albumen were up $7.75 to $13.25 per pound. The undertone is higher. Offerings are light and held with confidence with light to very light supplies and very good demand. Trading is active.

According to NASS, the February monthly volume of frozen eggs in storage increased 7% from January, 5% below the 2021 level. Stocks of whole frozen egg increased 3% from last month and were 12% above year ago levels. The share of whole egg stocks declined 2% to 44% of total frozen stocks. Stocks of frozen yolk declined 7%, 20% over last year's level while stocks of frozen egg whites were down 8%, 11% under last year. Stocks of unclassified eggs gained 19%, 19% below 2021 levels. The share of unclassified frozen stocks grew by 4% to 41%.

Cage-free commitments as of February 2022 remain about unchanged, requiring 66.7 billion cage-free eggs per year to meet 100% of needs from an approximate cage-free flock of 221 million hens (68% of the U.S. non-organic flock), indicating a shortage of 128 million hens from the current non-organic cage-free flock of 92.9 million hens. The average lay rate for non-organic cage-free production is currently estimated at 82.1%.

Source: USDA AMS Livestock & Poultry Program, Livestock, Poultry, and Grain Market News Division

Weekly Eggs Processed (30-dozen cases)

1.8

1.7

million 30-dozen cases

1.6

1.5

1.4

1.3

1.2

1.1

J

F

M

A

M

J

J

Source: USDA AMS L&P Livestock, Poultry, and Grain Market News

2022

2021

2020

A

S

O

N

D

total -1.2%

share -1.4%

Eggs Processed Week-to-Week Change

whole

whites

yolks

-0.1%

0.4%

0.8%

dried -2.4%

inedible -4.9%

Central States Breaking Stock Eggs (cents per dozen)

200

175

150

125

100

75

50

25

0

J

F

M

A

M

J

J

Source: USDA AMS L&P Livestock, Poultry, and Grain Market News

2020

2021

2022

A

S

O

N

D

Monthly Frozen Egg in Cold Storage (all types; end of the month)

48

2022 2021 2020

44

pounds (millions)

40

36

32

28

24

20

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

Source: USDA AMS L&P Livestock, Poultry, and Grain Market News; NASS

Egg Markets Overview

Shell Eggs Market Price Comparisons

(as of March 25, 2022)

(National Index on a loose-egg basis, all other prices for cartoned eggs; LG White avg prices in cents per dozen)

sector markup

9%

-32%

3%

1%

prior current

loose

carton

carton

carton

carton

209.9 228.0 154.0 158.0 159.0

national index producer

delivered delivered store retail on ad

warehouse

door

Producer, warehouse, & store door = MW; retail no sale NY market; retail on sale Nat'l Retail Feature; loose eggs include minimal

Key Egg Markets Overview

Recent History

25-Mar % Change 18-Mar 11-Mar 4-Mar 25-Feb 18-Feb

SHELL EGGS (Large, White, conventional in cents per dozen)

National, Loose, (f.o.b. dock prices)

209.89

51% 138.59 96.43 86.88 93.83 97.84

New York, Cartoned (price to retailers)

277.00

47% 189.00 144.00 144.00 152.00 164.00

Midwest, Cartoned (price dlvrd to warehouse)

154.00

19% 129.00 129.00 137.00 154.00 171.00

California, Cartoned, benchmark (cage-free )

239.00

18% 203.00 194.00 216.00 235.00 238.00

National Retail Shell Egg (avg. ad price in dollars per dozen)

Conventional, Large, White

1.59

Cage-Free, Large, Brown

2.86

54% 1.03 1.49 1.52 1.33 1.05 5% 2.73 2.11 2.22 2.18 2.18

EGG PRODUCTS (f.o.b. dock prices; dollars per pound)

Central States Breaking Stock (dlvd prices per doz) 190.00

Whole Frozen Eggs

203.00

Whole Dried Eggs

9.30

Processed Share of Weekly Egg Production

30.9%

41% 56% 102% -0.4%

48.00 135.00 130.00

4.60 31.3%

1.55 87.00 125.00 4.50 31.2%

90.00 122.00

4.25 29.9%

90.00 119.00

4.15 30.4%

85.00 117.00

4.12 29.4%

SHELL EGG DEMAND INDICATOR (no units)

-1.6

Source: USDA AMS Livestock, Poultry, and Grain Market News

3.4 -5.0 -5.2 -3.1

0.0

8.3

Key Shell Egg Markets Snapshot - 2022

(Large, White, Conventional Shell Eggs in cents per dozen)

National, Loose, (f.o.b. dock prices) New York, Cartoned (price to retailers) Midwest, Cartoned (price dlvrd to warehouse) 1 California, Cartoned, benchmark Central States Breaking Stock (delivered prices) 1 Whole Frozen Egg Products (f.o.b. dock prices) Whole Dried Egg Products (f.o.b. dock prices) Natl Average Retail Ad Price - Conventional Natl Average Retail Ad Price - Cage-free2 Shell Egg Demand Indicator 1 mostly high; 2 non-organic

25-Mar 209.9 277.0 154.0 239.0 190.0 203.0 9.30 1.59 2.86 -1.6

Change 51% 47% 19% 18% 41% 56% 102% 54% 5% 3.4

18-Mar 138.6 189.0 129.0 203.0 135.0 130.0 4.60 1.03 2.73 -5.0

2022 High 209.9 25-Mar 277.0 25-Mar 176.0 07-Feb 298.0 31-Jan 190.0 25-Mar 203.0 25-Mar 9.30 25-Mar 1.59 25-Mar 2.86 25-Mar 11.5 02-Feb

2022 Low 71.4 12-Jan 126.0 13-Jan 111.0 18-Jan 194.0 07-Mar 73.0 07-Jan 115.0 07-Jan 4.12 07-Jan 0.86 28-Jan 2.11 11-Mar -7.3 12-Jan

Source: USDA AMS Livestock & Poultry Program, Livestock, Poultry, and Grain Market News Division

Egg Markets Overview

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