(C2007/2): Summary of the State of Food and Agriculture



(C2007/2): Summary of the State of Food and Agriculture

Introduction

World agriculture, including fisheries and forestry, has achieved notable success over the past half century but faces serious challenges now and in the coming decades. (Par 1)

Agricultural growth contributes directly to food security, but it also supports poverty reduction in the developing world. Many of the least developed countries, particularly those located in marginal production environments, continue to experience low or stagnant agricultural productivity, rising food deficit and rising levels of hunger and poverty. The challenge is to revive agricultural growth at the global level and extend it to those left behind. (Par 2)

Agricultural, Fishery and Forest Production and Use

Agriculture

Since 1961, the value of total agricultural output has almost trebled, with much of this growth originating in developing countries, reflecting an increase in high value commodities in the total value production. (Par 3)

The composition of agricultural production has changed considerably over the last 40 years. Cereals, oil crops, sugar, vegetables, eggs and meat increased more than population growth rates, while the production of pulses and roots and tubers declined relative to total population. (Par 5)

The major challenge facing world agriculture today is satisfying the increasing demand for animal food products while at the same time sustaining the natural resource base and coping with climate change and vulnerability. (Par 6)

Fishery Production and Use

Fisheries play an important role in the world food economy. Total fishery production has more than doubled since 1970. Total capture production has relatively been stable while during the last decade, while world aquaculture production has increased rapidly, particularly in the Asia-Pacific region (in particular China) which accounts for 90 percent of total aquaculture production. Three quarters of the world fishery production (108 million in 2005) is for direct human consumption and the rest is used for non-food purposes, primarily for livestock and aquaculture feed. Any increases in consumption will require an even more rapid growth in aquaculture. (Par 7-9)

Forestry Area, Production and Use

Total forest area is just under 4 billion hectares. The net annual loss of forests is about 7.3 million ha during the period 2000 – 2005. World round wood production has increased more than 40 percent since 1965. The vast majority of wood fuel is used in developing countries. (Par 10-11)

Developing countries produced 62% of total round wood production in 2005 and partly due to the increasing supply from he maturing planted forests, round wood production continues to grow. In the developed countries, round wood production is growing steadily, but remains well below the peak levels of 1989-1990 when it reached 1 200 million cubic meters’. (Par 12-13)

Consumption

Significant progress has been made in raising food consumption per capita. Overall progress of the developing countries has been largely influenced by significant gains made in East Asia. (Par 14)

Diversification of Food Consumption

Global dietary patterns have changed dramatically over the past four decades as a result of income growth, relative price changes, urbanization and shifts in consumer preferences. Reponses differ between developed and developing countries. Diets have shifted away from staples such as cereals, roots and tubers and pulses towards more livestock products, vegetables oils, fruits and vegetables. In developing countries, rising incomes have an immediate and pronounced impact on diet and the demand for more processed foods with shorter preparation time increases, particularly when women participate in the labor market. (Par 15-17)

Urbanization is another important factor influencing consumer preferences. Combined with trade liberalization and declining transportation costs, this is making non-traditional foods more accessible to urban populations. (Par 18)

Emerging Obesity Concerns in Developing Countries

The progress in raising and diversifying per capita food consumption has become a mixed blessing in several developing countries. The related diet transition often includes a large increase in the consumption of refined carbohydrates and processed fats and oils, which, combined with a more sedentary lifestyle results in rapidly growing rates of overweight, obesity and a number of diet-related non-communicable diseases. It is now common to find obesity and malnutrition under one roof (the double burden of malnutrition). Globally, 1.6 billion adults are overweight and at least 400 million are obese, with the majority in emerging markets and transitional economies. (Par 19-20)

Agricultural Trade, Prices and Diversification

Trade

The nominal value of agricultural exports has increased tenfold, while the share of agricultural trade in total merchandise trade has followed a long-term downward trend. The net flow of agricultural commodities between developed and developing countries has reversed direction. The change has even been more pronounced for the Least Developed Countries (LDCs), which have changed from being net exporters to significant net importers. (Par 21-23)

Cereal foodstuffs once dominated international agricultural trade, but now the share of cereals in total agricultural imports has fallen below 50% in developing countries and below one-third in developed countries. Consequently, both developing and developed countries are importing greater quantities of higher-value and processed foods. (Par 24)

About 40% of world fish production enters international markets, with a value of USD 78.4 billion in 2005. Developed countries absorbed more than 80% of total fisheries imports. Fisheries export earnings from developing countries have become far greater than other commodities such as coffee, bananas, and rubber. (Par 25)

Prices

Agricultural commodity price trends over the past 40 years reveal that real prices of agricultural commodities relative to prices of all manufactured goods have declined significantly. Cereal and oilseed prices have increased recently, driven partly by increased demand for bio-fuels and partly by weather-related production shortfalls. (Par 26)

These trends are a result of trade policy reforms, improvements in transportation, technological advances and trade liberalization. Production and export subsidies in some developed countries have also contributed. (Par 27-28)

Recent rises in commodity prices have been driven by weather-related production shortfalls and other factors such as the emergence of liquid bio-fuels. (Par 30)

Trade and Diversification

Some developing countries have taken advantage of changing price and demand trends by shifting production and trade into the non-traditional higher-value sectors. (Par 31-34)

Food Insecurity continues in many parts of the world

The World Food Summit established the target of reducing the number of undernourished people in the world by half by 2015. The Millennium Development Goal (MDG) target is to reduce the proportion of undernourished people in the developing world. Since 1990/92, the only significant progress towards reducing the number of undernourished people has been concentrated in few, populous sub-regions. The Near East, North Africa, Central America, East Asia (excluding China) and Central Africa experienced an increase in both the number and proportion of undernourished since 1990/92. (Par 37-40).

In Sub Saharan Africa, recent progress in reducing the prevalence of undernourishment is noteworthy. West Africa and Nigeria saw a decline in undernourishment, in Southern Africa and East Africa, the prevalence of hungry people declined. However Central Africa experienced a dramatic increase in both the number and prevalence of under-nourishment. (Par 41)

Efforts to reduce hunger in Sub-Saharan Africa have been hampered by natural and human-induced disasters, including conflicts and the spread of HIV/AIDS. There is a clear correlation between countries income per capita and prevalence of undernourishment. (Par 42-44)

Studies have shown that the impact of economic growth on reducing hunger and poverty depends as much on the nature of the growth. Agricultural growth is, therefore, a critical factor in hunger reduction. (Par 46)

Future Trends for Food Security

Not all countries are likely to achieve adequate food consumption levels, particularly were there is already high rates of undernourishment, high population growth rates, poor prospects for rapid economic growth and often meager agricultural resources. Hence reducing undernourishment may be a very slow process in these countries. However FAO projections imply considerable overall improvements. (Par 47-49)

Opportunities and Challenges in The Future

Continuing Population Growth in Poorest Countries

Global Population has been the main driving force for growth in world food demand and production. World population is expected to increase, especially in the group of 50 least developed countries and these countries may still have inadequate consumption levels in 2050. (Par 50-51)

Slowly Agricultural Production Growth

Growth of agricultural output is expected to fall. All major commodity sectors are expected to take part in the deceleration of agricultural growth (excluding the milk sector). The cereals sector is expected to continue on a downward spiral and is expected to have the lowest growth rate among the major commodity sectors in the next 50 years. (Par 52-53)

Bioenergy

Recent high petroleum prices are creating new markets for agricultural products that can be used as feed-stocks for the production of bio-fuel. If world agriculture were to become a major source of feed-stock for the bio-fuel industry, this would have as yet unknown implications for food security and for the environment. (Par 54)

Water

Agriculture accounts for 70% of all water use in the world and as much as 95 percent in many developing countries, almost all for irrigating crops. Total water use is still increasing and is expected to continue to increase due to population growth, urban expansion and increasing industrialization. By 2025, over 3 billion people are likely to experience water stress. The gap between available water supply and water demand is increasing in many parts of the world and will likely affect the expansion of irrigation. In areas where water supply is already limited, water scarcity is likely to be the most serious constraint on agricultural development. (Par 55)

Climate Change

There are still large uncertainties as to when, how and where climate change will impact on agriculture production and food security, but it is generally agreed that agricultural impact will be more adverse in tropical than in temperate areas. While the adverse impacts of climate change will fall disproportionately on the poor, actual impacts will depend at least as much on the socio-economic conditions as on the biophysical processes involved. Policies and investments supporting trade, sustainable agricultural practices and technological progress can help mitigate the effects of climate change on agriculture and food security while increasing the capacity of people and societies to adapt. (Par 57)

................
................

In order to avoid copyright disputes, this page is only a partial summary.

Google Online Preview   Download