Population Change - Weebly



AQA GEOG1: Population Change

• Population indicators – vital rates (birth rate, death rate, fertility rate, infant mortality rate, life expectancy, migration rate and population density) for countries at different stages of development.

• Population change: the demographic transition model (5 stages), its validity and applicability in countries at different stages of development.

• Population structures at different stages of the demographic transition. The impact of migration on national population structure. The implications of different structures for the balance between population and resources.

• Social, economic and political implications of population change. Attempts to manage population change to achieve sustainable development with reference to two case studies of countries at different stages of development.

• The ways natural population change and migration affect the character of rural and urban areas.

• Settlement case studies – comparing two (or more) of the following areas – an inner city area, a suburban area, an area of rural/urban fringe and an area of rural settlement. To include reference to characteristics such as: housing, ethnicity, age structure, wealth and employment and the provision of services.

• The implications of the above for social welfare.

Population Change

The growth of world population

▪ In 1999, the world’s population reached 6 billion, and is now expanding by 80 million every year

▪ Estimates suggest that the global population will be 9 billion by 2050.

Increases in population have been a result of developments in technology:

▪ Development of scientific farming, increasing crop yields

▪ Developments in agricultural machinery and tools

▪ Advances in medicine and hygiene

▪ Development in the preservation and storage of foods

Changes in population characteristics

The Demographic Transition model The demographic transition model describes how the population of a country changes over time.

Stage 1: High Fluctuating

In stage 1, birth rates and death rates fluctuate at a high level, around 35 per 1000, giving little population growth. Birth rates are high because; no birth control or family planning; child mortality is high so parents tend to have many children in the hope that some will survive; many children are needed to work on the land and support parents in their old age. Death rates are high because; diseases such as cholera and typhoid, and plagues are widespread; famine, uncertain food supplies and poor diet; poor hygiene – no clean water or piped sewage systems; little medical science – few doctors, hospitals and drugs.

Examples: Rainforest Tribes such as the Amer Indians in Brazil

Stage 2: Early Expanding

In stage 2, birth rates remain high, but death rates fall rapidly to about 20 per 1000, giving rapid population growth. The fall in death rates is caused by; improved medical care – vaccinations, hospitals, doctors, new drugs; improved sanitation and water supplies; improvements in food production, both quantity and quality; improved transport infrastructure, so doctors and food can be moved; a decrease in child mortality.

Examples: Bangladesh, Kenya

Stage 3: Late expanding

In stage 3, birth rates fall rapidly, to around 16 per 1000. Death rates continue to fall slightly, to 12 per 1000. The population increases slowly. The fall in birth rates is due to; access to family planning – contraception, sterilisation, abortion; lower infant mortality leading to less pressure to have so many children; increased industrialisation and mechanisation leading to less demand for labourers to work on the land; less desire for large families; emancipation of women, enabling them to follow their own careers rather being solely child bearers.

Examples: Brazil

Stage 4: :Low fluctuating

In stage 4, both birth rates and death rates are low, giving a steady population.

Examples: USA

Stage 5: Decline

In stage 5, the birth rate falls below replacement level; the birth rate is lower than the death rate. This leads to a decline in population.

Example: UK

Validity of the Demographic Transition Model: Uses

Universal in concept – can be applied to all countries; provides a starting point for the study of demographic change; Enables comparisons to be made between demographic changes of different countries; Timescales are flexible .

Limitations Since the creation of the DTM, birth rates in some countries have fell below death rates causing a natural decrease. This has created the need for a stage 5; model is Eurocentric and assumes that all countries of the world will show the same socioeconomic development; the DTM does not include the influence of government policy (China’s One Child Policy for example); DTM does not include influence of migration

Case study of a youthful population: Uganda

Socio-economic and environmental impacts of the youthful population:

1. Family Welfare – early child bearing encourages teenage pregnancies - this increases the number of mothers who do not have the material resources they require to support their children. Teenage pregnancy also encourages school drop-out creating a barrier to educational and career development of women in the future.

2. Increased demand for health services – high fertility rates and AIDS epidemic means that infrastructure is insufficient to cope with the demands of the population.

3. Increased demand for education – although the government set targets of universal primary education, the high fertility rate means that huge amounts of funding will be required to increase the number of schools, classrooms, resources and teachers available.

4. Employment – the youthful population accounts for the expansion in labour force, mainly in the informal and agricultural sectors. The potential labour force is expected to double between 1991 and 2021 to reach 16.8million. There is little availability for work in the formal sector, so hindering economic development and adding to unemployment problems.

5. Urbanisation and Housing – the rapid increase in the number of people in Uganda created the need for more housing and infrastructure; the rate of growth however could not be matched by rate of housing development. This has lead to the creation of overcrowding and slums, where there is little access to electricity or clean water.

6. An increased demand for social security – widespread poverty due to large families and high dependency has increased the need for a comprehensive social security system.

7. Demand for Environmental Resources - The following are all environmental challenges that Uganda faces: high population growth is resulting in degradation of the environment; increasing land fragmentation and decrease in soil fertility causing crop yields to fall; increasing use of marginal lands which can’t support agriculture sustainably; depletion of wetlands to expand agricultural lands and forest depletion to gain land use for firewood for fuel.

Demographic Change in the UK

Stage 1 – High Stationary – Pre-1760

o Poor diet and hygiene, diseases like cholera and typhoid; bubonic plague epidemic in 1348 - the Black Death - killed one third of population; great plague of 1665; cheap gin drinking of early 1700s increased mortality.

Stage 2 – Early Expanding – 1760-1880

o Urbanisation and industrialisation rapidly increased the population in urban areas. Factory owners installed piped water and sewage systems after the 1848 Publlic Health Act. Voluntary hospitals were founded, and in 1798 Jenner discovered the vaccination against smallpox. Improvements in farming technology decreased starvation. All of these factors decreased death rates.

Stage 3 – Late Expanding – 1880-1940

o Death rates continued to fall; medical science improved; advances in surgery and availability of anaesthesia. Food supplies continued to improve with cheap American wheat, refrigerated meats and fruits from Australia and New Zealand.

o Birth rates fell due to two social reformers – Charles Bradlaugh and Annie Besant. They published a book which gave contraceptive advice. Birth rates also fell due to a desire for smaller families; education until the age of 13 became compulsory and financial costs of having children rose. Birth rates fell from 32 per 1000 to 17 per 1000 between 1890 and 1930.

Stage 4 – Low Stationary - 1940-2009

o Birth rates remained low, with the exception of the post war baby boom. Wide use of condoms and the introduction of the oral contraceptive pill have meant that the relationship between desired family size and achieved family size has remained strong. The increase in employment of women has also contributed to lower birth rates.

Stage 5 – Declining – Future…?

o With an ageing population, and estimates projecting that by 2030, 1 in 4 people in the UK will be over the age of 65, the population of the UK could decline if the birth rate drops below death rate.

The balance between population and resources: Demographic ageing in the UK

By 2050, it is projected that the proportion of the UK population over the age of 65 will have doubled to 48%. The 2001 census recorded more than 1.1 million people (1.9% of the population) aged 85 or over. The fertility rate is projected to rise no higher than 1.75, and remain at this low rate.

There are many impacts of this ageing population structure on the UK:

o Increased pressure on health resources – the costs however tend to be compressed into the last years of life – known as the compression of morbidity.

o Increasing pressure on pensions – the current system cannot be sustained, as there are too many pensioners compared to those in the working age group. The Pensions Act of 2007 states that the UK will raise retirement age to 65 between 2010 and 2020. It will be raised further to 68 years after 2024.

o Voting power of the elderly becomes more significant – the votes of pensioners becomes more important to political parties, so the needs of the elderly must be accommodated in manifestos.

o The economic and purchasing power of ‘the grey pound’ is increasing, which benefits companies specialising in providing goods and services for older people (for example, cruise companies and Saga)

o An increase in the number of elderly living alone has lead to a greater need for health visitors, home helps, meals on wheels etc.

o Segregation based on ageing manifests itself in towns in the UK; purpose built bungalows or maisonettes in a specific area of an estate for elderly people who are able to remain in the community. Sheltered accommodation monitored by wardens – this may be a complex of flats or small houses. The number of nursing homes has also increased for the elderly who cannot look after themselves.

o Areas of the UK have a distorted age structure; one in three residents of Christchurch in Dorset is over the age of 65. Eastbourne is another retirement centre; in areas such as these there may be inadequate facilities for young people.

Theories of Population Change

Pessimistic: Malthus

• Reverend Thomas Malthus was a British scholar influential in political economy and demography. His first theory on population growth, An Essay on the Principle of Population was published in 1798.

• Malthus's theory of population proposed that there were natural limiting factors, such as food resources, which limited a given population. Malthus noted that populations as a whole tend to grow exponentially or geometrically, whereas natural resources grow arithmetically if they grow at all. When a population reaches beyond the amount of resources available to its survival, it has reached its carrying capacity. When a population reaches its carrying capacity a number of limiting factors, such as disease or famine, can occur to bring the population down, and back to naturally acceptable limits. 

• A Malthusian catastrophe is described as the forced return to subsistence level conditions when a population has outpaced maximum agricultural production. In his Essay on the Principles of Population, he predicted that population growth would eventually outrun food supply. This prediction was based on the idea that population, if unchecked, increases at a geometric rate, whereas the food supply could only grow at an arithmetic rate. Mathematically, any increasing geometric sequence (e.g. 1, 3, 9, 27, 81) will eventually overtake all arithmetic sequences (e.g. 10, 20, 30, 40, 50). The resulting decrease in food per person will eventually lead to subsistence level conditions. According to Malthus, the Catastrophe can only be prevented by self-restraint or vice—which for him included contraception and abortion.

Optimistic: Boserup

Malthus’ theory says that the size and growth of the population depends on the food supply and agricultural methods. But, Boserup’s theory opposes this by saying that the agricultural methods depend on the size of the population. Malthus states that in times when food is not sufficient for everyone, the extra people will have to die. However, Boserup states that in those times of pressure people will find ways to increase the production of food by increasing workforce, machinery, fertilizers, etc.

This graph shows how the rate of food supply may vary but never reaches its carrying capacity because every time it is getting near, there is an invention or development that causes the food supply to increase.

Modern Support for Boserup: Julian Simon

Julian Simon states than supplies of natural resources are not finite in any serious way; they are created by the intellect of man, an always renewable resource. Coal, oil and uranium were not resources at all until mixed well with human intellect. If the real resource was the human intellect, Simon reasoned, and the amount of human intellect was increasing, both quantitatively through population growth and qualitatively through education, then the supply of resources would grow, outrunning demand, pushing prices down and giving people more access to what they wanted, with more than enough left over to deal with pollution and congestion. In short, mankind faced the very opposite of a crisis.

Managing Population Change

Mauritius

Mauritius is a small volcanic island. In the 1960s, it had the fastest growing population in the world. It was overpopulated and heading for a Malthusian Crisis – a 3% population growth rate. The country was poor, with a low GNP per capita. Projections predicted that the population of the island was set to rise from 500,000 to 3 million by the year 2000. The only crop exported was sugar beet.

Government solutions; Social Factors – lowering birth rate

• Set up a family planning service and health clinics - reduce the birth rate from 6 children to 3 children per woman. By 1985, only 14% of the urban population were more than 30 minutes travelling time from a clinic

• Improve the status of women – by 1990, 33.75% of women were in paid employment compared to 22% of women in 1975.

• Restrict early marriage – many marriages were already postponed due to harsh economic climate of 1960s.

Economic Factors – increase available resources

• Encourage tourism

• Encourage secondary industry – manufacturing and textiles

• Increase the productivity of the land – extensifying by derocking to increase land available; intensifying by planting potatoes and maize in between sugar beets.

• Becoming an export processing zone attracts transnational corporations. EPZ provides numerous financial incentives such as reduced corporate tax and free reparation of capital.

• Creation of a free port at St Louis

• The well educated society attracts international companies.

• GDP per capita rose by 159% from 1986 to 1993

Qatar

Qatar is a country in the Middle East ruled by the Al Thani family. In 2007, it had the second highest income per capita in the world, due to significant oil and natural gas revenues.

Factors affecting birth rate:

o Traditional Islamic values (77.5% population is Muslim) mean that families tend to be quite large. Fertility rate is 2.44, and only 32% of married women use contraceptives.

o Change of role of women in society; the Emir’s wife, Sheika Mozah has changed the role of women in society; Qatari women can now drive and in 1999, Qatar became the first gulf nation to allow women to vote in municipal elections. 25% of women of childbearing age are now unmarried.

Factors affecting death rate:

o Excellent health facilities; free to citizens; funding in ‘Education city’ partnerships with US universities to improve research and health care. 98% of births attended by medical professional increasing maternal health levels.

o Good individual knowledge of health and hygiene due to improvements in the education system. Access to health facilities, gyms and leisure centres with government promotion of sport.

o Due to increased access to fast food chain restaurants, obesity levels have risen; up to 70% of Qatari women are obese.

Social Impacts

o Ethnically diverse country: Arab 40%, Indian 18%, Pakistani 18%, Iranian 10%, other 14%

o Skewed sex ratio: 1.66 men for every woman – 2.46:1 in the working age group

Economic Impacts

o Migrants provide a much needed workforce for the rapid economic development of the country. Although the GNP per capita is the highest in the world, income is not spread evenly. Migrant labourers in the construction industry earn only around £1200 per year.

Population – Resource balance in Qatar

o Oil and natural gas discovered in 1939. These are predicted to last less than 40 years; what happens than? Agriculture provides only 0.9% of GDP because land is too dry to farm. There is a very limited water supply, with only 75mm rain per year. Water is now obtained through desalinisation of sea water. Will Qatar face a Malthusian catastrophe?

Anti-natalist Policies: Thailand

Successes

Use of contraceptives among married couples has increased from 16 to 72 percent, and in 15 years Thailand's population growth rate has been cut in half, from 3.2 percent to 1.6 percent. Women on average now give birth to 1.7 children, rather than 6.5 children in 1969.

▪ A nationwide family planning programme was launched and in 1971 Thailand adopted a national population policy. The government worked with the Population and Community Development Agency in order to control the level of growth in Thailand.

▪ Making contraceptives freely and widely available was a major part of the policy – condoms were handed out by police officers, traffic wardens and at cinemas. Other contraceptive methods such as pills, implants and spermicidal foam were available at public events and at bus stops. Simplified female sterilisation methods have been developed as well as non-scalper male vasectomies. Sterilisation has now become to most widely used method of contraception in the Thailand.

▪ The Thai government made it clear to the people of the country that family planning links with economic development and improving quality of life. Since 1971, income per capita has almost doubled. The government has changed people’s attitudes form “we need more field hands” to “fewer children mean a better quality of life”. They have introduced alternative methods of income generation; pig banks and buffalo banks were loans in the form of animals. People would sell them on, repay the loan and keep the profit.

▪ Mechai Viravaidya launched a chain of restaurants called ‘Cabbages and Condoms’. Free condoms are available to all customers, and all profits made go towards the PDA’s social development schemes.

Weaknesses

o Damaging the tourist industry which is worth $4 billion annually. Critics feel that foreign tourists have been driven away by the anti-AIDS campaigns

o Still a high prevalence rate of AIDS – 1.4%

China’s One Child Policy

Soon after taking power in 1949 Chairman Mao declared: ‘Of all things in the world, people are the most precious.’ He condemned birth control and banned the import of contraceptives. In 1959, there was a serious famine and 20 million people died. A population boom followed, and it grew by 55 million every year. Nothing was done to reduce the spiralling birth rate.

In 1979, China introduced the One Child Policy, three years after Chairman Mao’s death. Pressures were put on women to use contraception. Granny police in housing estates and family planning workers in every factory were instructed to enforce the laws. Women had to obtain permission from employers to have a child. Forced sterilisation and abortion were common. Parents with extra children can be fined, depending on the region, from $370 to $12,800 (many times the average annual income for many ordinary Chinese). If the fine is not paid sometimes the couples land is taken away, their house is destroyed, they lose their jobs or the child is not allowed to attend school.

Forced abortions and sterilisation are no longer permitted. China has moved to more of a health orientated policy; “Have Fewer Children Live Better Lives” and "Stabilize Family Planning and Create a Brighter Future” are painted on roadside buildings.

Beginning in 2009, eligible couples in Shanghai were encouraged to have two children in part to address concerns about taking care of an aging population. In Shanghai, people over 60 already make 21.6 percent of the population, and are expected to make up 34 percent in 2020, while the birth rate is less than one child per couple.

Was it Successful?

o 400 million births prevented

o Population Growth rate (left) has been reduced to 0.5%

o Fertility rate fallen from 5 children to 1.5 children per woman.

Pro-natalist Policy: France

France needed to increase its birth rate because there are 3 main concerns arising for the future; a decrease in the supply of labour, socioeconomic implications of ageing and long term prospects of population demise.

“La Code de la Famille” – in 1939, cash incentives were offered to mothers who stayed at home to care for children. Subsidised holidays were given. The sale of contraception was banned.

Government incentives:

o £1064 lump sum to couples having 3 children – this is above replacement level so growth is encouraged

o Family allowances given to 3 child families

o Maternity week on near full pay, from 20 weeks for the first child to 40 or more weeks for the third child.

o 100% mortgages and preferential treatment on the allocation of council homes for families with 3 children

o 30% fare reduction on all public transport for 3 child families

Has it been successful?

← More babies in 2006 than in any year in the last quarter century

← France’s fertility rate is the 2nd highest in Europe

← Consensual and politically neutral

← Strong support to one parent families

← 60 year continuity inspires confidence

← The birth rate is still not high enough to rescue the country from an ageing population that threatens state spending on pensions and health.

← Complex and not always consistent

← More than 30 measures, so difficult to evaluate

Effects of Migration

Migration is the movement of people from one place to another. It can be International, regional, rural to urban or urban to rural. It could also be classified into economic, social, cultural, environmental or political.

For the source country:

For the destination country:

For the destination country:

Transmigration in Indonesia

Transmigration was a scheme introduced by the Indonesian government which moved people from the densely populated areas of the country to a less populated area, in an effort to reduce poverty. A new home, farming plot, basic infrastructure and living allowance was provided to the transmigration family. The three main aims of the transmigration scheme were;

▪ To move millions of Indonesians from densely populated inner islands (such as Java, Bali and Madura) to the less densely populated outer islands, to achieve a more balanced demographic development.

▪ To alleviate poverty by providing land and new opportunities for poor landless settlers to generate income.

▪ To exploit more effectively the potential of the outer islands.

In the 1980s, transmigration increased dramatically, and huge financial support was required from the world bank and bilateral donors. Human rights and environmental critics felt that transmigration was a ‘development fraud and an environmental disaster’. There were many criticisms of the transmigration policy, which included;

← Loss of forest on the outer islands

← Resettlement was attempting to control the indigenous populations of the outer islands

← Violated customary land rights and was aimed at the forced integration of indigenous people and forest dwellers.

← Increased Indonesia’s national debt – resettlement costs were $7000 per family

← Redistributed poverty rather than alleviating it

Changes have recently been made to the policy; forced transmigration is no longer possible – so less damage is caused to indigenous communities. There is however concern that the reliance upon the exploitation of natural resources (logging, mining, industrial shrimp farming, oil palm), which is encouraged by the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank , will cause a demand for labour in areas of low population, which could fuel a new transmigration boom.

Economic Migration: Mexico to the USA

o There is a 2000km border between USA and Mexico.

o 1 million + Mexicans migrate to the USA every year.

o Illegal migration is a huge problem for USA and Mexico

o US Border Patrol guard the border and try to prevent illegal immigrants

o 850,000 were caught in 1995 and were deported

Push Factors

o Poor medical facilities - 1800 per doctor

o Low paid jobs - (GNP = $3750)

o Adult literacy rates 55% - poor education prospects

o Life expectancy 72 yrs

o 40% Unemployed

Pull Factors

o Excellent medical facilities - 400 per doctor

o Well paid jobs - GNP = $24,750

o Adult literacy rates 99% - good education prospects

o Life expectancy 76 yrs

o Many jobs available for low paid workers such as Mexicans

Impacts on USA – destination country

o Illegal migration costs the USA millions of dollars for border patrols and prisons

o Mexicans are seen as a drain on the USA economy

o Migrant workers keep wages low which affects Americans

o They cause problems in cities due cultural and racial issues

o Mexican migrants benefit the US economy by working for low wages

o Mexican culture has enriched the US border states with food, language and music

o The incidents of TB has been increasing greatly due to the increased migration

Impacts on Mexico – Source country

o The Mexican countryside has a shortage of economically active people

o Many men emigrate leaving a majority of women who have trouble finding marriage partners

o Young people tend to migrate leaving the old and the very young

o Legal and illegal immigrants together send some $6 billion a year back to Mexico

o Certain villages such as Santa Ines have lost 2/3 of its inhabitants

Economic Migration: Dubai, UAE

In 2007, Dubai was the world’s fastest growing city. Building projects worth $100 billion US dollars; Flower City, Hydropolis (underwater hotel), Chess City, Dubailand (planned to be the world’s largest theme park) and 300 man-made islands in the Arabian gulf. Due to these construction projects, nearly 10 million migrants work in the Gulf States – migrants comprise 90% of workers in the UAE. On arrival in Dubai, migrants may have their passports confiscated to prevent them from leaving whilst on contract; exit visas cannot be obtained unless approved by employers; cramped and remote workers camps constructed in the desert; accusations of discrimination, intimidation and violence at the hands of employers and supervisors; trafficking of children occurs; accident and suicide rates amongst migrant workers are high.

In order to target these issues, the police and labour ministry have set up a hotline for foreign workers who have complaints. Civil servants visit factories and labour camps, and have awarded compensation from the firms involved.

Poland to UK

Poland joined the European Union on 1st April 2004 (1 of the A8 nations). The EU allows freedom of movement between its member states. The number of Polish workers in Britain is between 500 and 600,000, making Poles the third largest ethnic minority in the UK.

Immigration Controls

Mexico to USA: 800,000 people arrive every day from Mexico to the USA. In 2001 there were 300,000 million 2 way border crossings at 43 crossing points, including 19 million pedestrian crossings in Texas alone. In order to control this immigration, there are over 9,000 border patrol agents working along the 3,200 km border. The US Immigration and Naturalization service has 4 operations to apprehend unauthorised border crossers; Operation Hold the Line, Operation Gatekeeper, Operation Rio Grande and Operation Safeguard. They use heat sensors, night vision telescopes and aircraft including Black Hawk helicopters.

Elsewhere in the World: Limiting the number of migrants at the source by making it more difficult to satisfy visa requirements; insisting on purchasing return tickets; preventing illegal border crossings; use holding bases in third countries where checks are made on visas, as used in Germany in collaboration with Bulgaria, Poland and the Czech Republic.

Population Change and Sustainable Development

Sustainability is defined as development that meets the needs of the present without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own needs.

International summits (like Kyoto in 1997) have lead to the development of the principles of sustainability; these can be split into environmental and economic.

There is a major dilemma with the concept of sustainability; developed countries continue to demand resources for their populations in growing amounts while less developed countries are supplying the resources that make developed countries more affluent. The rapidly increasing populations of the developing countries, especially China and India are demanding more and more resources for themselves.

Agenda 21

UN sustainable development programme agreed at Earth Summits. Governments are obliged to formulate national plans or strategies for sustainable development. Agenda 21 states that it is people, not governments, who should engage in development, and so everybody has some ability to change what they do in some small way. Agenda 21 therefore has 2 parts: local and national.

At a local level, authorities can; effectively monitor air and water quality; promoting energy efficiency; establishing effective recycling systems; introducing efficient forms of public transport.

At a national level in developing countries; community nurses can be trained for all elements of care – prenatal, midwifery, childcare, the elderly; increasing levels of female literacy, raising aspirations.

At an national level in developed countries; train sufficient medical workers to look after rising numbers of elderly – this will reduce the need to recruit medical workers form overseas; recognise that birth rates are falling and address issues which may arise due to this, such as a small work force.

At a local scale, the issues associated with migration and natural increases are evident. In general, remote rural areas are in decline, and the more accessible rural areas (including the rural urban fringe) are expanding.

How changes have affected urban and rural areas –

Case study Tyneside, Newcastle

There are 4 areas around Newcastle upon Tyne that this focuses on; Byker Ward (inner city) Jesmond Ward (20th century suburb) Castle Ward (late 20th century suburb) and Longhorsely (village).

Migration and natural increase can affect the provision of services: Isle of Purbeck, Dorset

In the Isle of Purbeck, Dorset, there has been out migration of young adults who are in search of economic opportunities. The population is considerably older than the country as a whole as it is a popular destination for retirement. In 2001, birth rate was 10.1 whilst death rate was 11.9, resulting in a population decline.

Due to the natural decrease in population and out migration of young people, there has been a decline in the services provided. Dorset County Council’s rural facilities survey of 2002 found a continuing decline in rural services; three quarters of villages had no general store, 38 rural post offices had closed since 1991 and 35 rural petrol stations had closed since 1991.

The groups in a population have implications for social welfare…

More students – more noise, more night clubs, lower standard of upkeep of properties.

More elderly – peaceful, better support services for elderly. If there are fewer young families, there may be school closures and closure of bus routes and transport services.

Greater concentration of ethnic minorities – strong ethnic culture, good support network. Tension may be created between ethnic groups and ghettos may develop where ethnic minorities are segregated.

|Characteristic |Inner City |Suburbs |Rural/urban fringe |Rural |

|Housing |High density terraced. |20th century detached |Low density high quality private |Large privately |

| | |and semi detached |houses |owned homes |

|Ethnicity |High proportion of | | |Majority white |

| |ethnic minorities | | | |

|Age structure |High proportion young |Families and elderly |Families with children and elderly|High proportion of |

| | | | |elderly |

|Wealth |Poorest | | |Wealthiest residents|

|Employment |Students, unemployed, |Skilled manual workers, |Tertiary and quaternary sector |Professional and |

| |semi-skilled |tertiary sector workers |workers |managerial sectors |

|Services |City centre has lots of |Good transport to city |Out of town shopping complexes, |Lack of services; |

| |services |centre, shopping parades|recreational facilities like golf |little transport, |

| | | |courses |few village shops. |

Characteristics of urban and rural areas

Preston

The areas fit the expected pattern for rural and urban zones:

-----------------------

Europe, North America and Australasia have very low growth rates. In 1995, their share of the world’s population was 20%, and this is expected to fall to 12% by 2050 – causing Europe’s population to shrink by 90 million.

Asia has a rapid but declining rate of population growth. China, India and Pakistan will contribute most to the world population growth in the next 40 years.

It is estimated that by 2050, India will overtake China as the world’s most populous country

Sub Saharan Africa is another area for potential growth particularly in Nigeria and the Democratic republic of Congo.

Causes of population growth

Health – the control of disease, birth control measures, infant mortality, diet and nutrition, sexual health, sanitation, numbers of doctors and nurses

Education – health education, age of compulsory schooling, females in education, literacy levels

Social Provisions – care for the elderly, availability of media, clean water supplies

Cultural factors – religious attitudes to birth control, status gain from having children, role of women in society, sexual morality

Political factors – taxes to support services, strength of economy, impact of war and conflicts, access to healthcare and contraception

Environmental factors – frequency of hazards, environmental conditions which breed disease

Fertility is the number of live births per 1,000 women aged between 15 and 49 in one year. It can be defined as the average number of children each woman in a population will bear. If the number is 2.1 or higher, the population will replace itself. Fertility varies from country to country; this is affected by;

Death rate – if infant mortality is high, women must have more children to ensure that one survives to adulthood. Improvements in healthcare, sanitation and diet have reduced infant mortality.

Tradition – cultural expectations may override the wishes of women; they may be expected to bear large numbers of children. This is the case in Chad, Bangladesh and Mozambique.

Education– female literacy plays a huge role. With education comes knowledge of birth control, more opportunities for employment and wider choices. Lack of education about family planning can lead to a high fertility rate.

Young Age structures – in developing countries, where the population is youthful, the population is sure to grow because the large number of young people are about to move through child bearing years. In countries with an ageing population, population will decline even if fertility rate increases, because there are fewer women of child bearing age.

Religion – Islam and the Roman Catholic Church oppose the use of artificial birth control. This could mean that fertility rates are greater.

Economic factors – in developing countries, children are seen as an economic asset and are viewed as producers, so fertility rate is greater. In developed countries, children are expensive due to the long time spent in university. This may lead to a lower fertility rate.

Political Influences – Increasing population (1930s Germany) or decreasing population (China’s one child policy)

Mortality is an important indicator of socioeconomic development. Areas with low mortality rates have high levels of medical infrastructure, with care professionals and facilities. Areas with high mortality rates tend to lack such medical facilities. Infant mortality, the number of deaths of infants under age 1 per 1000 births in a given year, is highest in LEDCS and lowest in MEDCS, due to the antenatal care which is offered in wealthier countries. Life expectancy is higher in more economically developed countries, because of access to healthcare, good nutrition and adequate sanitation. The incidence of AIDS also has a major effect – seen particularly in Sun-Saharan Africa.

Mortality is increased in an ageing population; the prevalence of poverty and poor living conditions; the reluctance to make lifestyle choices which could reduce mortality.

Mortality is lowered by the greater awareness of health issues and by government aims for better access to healthcare and education.

The right to development must be fulfilled to meet equitably the needs of present and future generations

All states should cooperate in eliminating poverty in order to decrease disparities in standards of living

Special needs of developing countries, particularly the least developed and economically most vulnerable, should be given priority

Unsustainable production and consumption patterns should be eliminated and appropriate demographic population policies should be promoted.

People should be at the heart of concerns regarding development

States should have the rights to exploit their own environments but should not damage the environments of other states

Laws should be enacted regarding liability of pollution and compensation

States should pass on information about natural disasters and notify neighbours of any unforeseen consequences of their own actions which may cross boundaries.

The original baby boom – rejuvenates the population

Ageing population as ‘baby boomers’ move up the pyramid. The fertility rate then declines.

Social Effects: Benefits Population density reduced, money sent home by migrants can give better education and health facilities, returning retired migrants increase social expectations in the community such as better leisure facilities. Social Effects: Costs disproportionate number of females left behind; non return of migrants can cause imbalance in the population pyramid; returning retired migrants may impose a social cost on the community

Economic Effects: Benefits Reduce under-employment; returning migrants bring new skills which could revitalise the economy; migrants send money home which is reinvested in infrastructure; less pressure on resources

Economic Effects: Costs Loss of the young adult labour force, loss of entrepreneurial talents which may slow economic development; loss of labour may deter investment by private corporations, so an increasing dependence of government.

Political Effects: policies to encourage natural increase; policies to encourage immigration to counteract outflow; requests for international aid.

Social Effects: Benefits creation of a multicultural society; influx of new service providers – revitalises a community, for example Turkish Baths and corner shops; growth in ethnic trading and international food outlets, like the Curry mile in Rusholme Manchester. Social Effects: Costs cultural identity may be lost amongst second generation migrants; segregated area of similar ethnic groups are created and schools dominated by migrant children, and education made more difficult if English is not a first language; tensions may be created in communities – social division

Economic Effects: Benefits economic migrants tend to take up less desirable jobs; host country gains skilled labour at reduced cost; ‘skills gap’ filled; cost of retirement is transferred back to source country Economic Effects: Costs cost of educating migrant children; over-dependence on migrant labour like construction industry in UK; much of the money earned is repatriated to country of origin; increased population puts extra strain on resources.

Political Effects: discrimination against ethnic groups and minorities, leading to civil unrest and extremism; calls for governmental control over immigration

Over 50% of Uganda’s population is under the age of 15. This is due to a very high fertility rate (7.1 children per woman in 1991) and a very low contraceptive prevalence rate of 16%. This is shown on the population pyramid by the wide base. There is a high AIDS prevalence rate 5.4%, which results in high mortality and low life expectancy – this is shown by the concave pyramid sides and the narrow apex. The high fertility rate and youthful age structure has lead to population momentum in Uganda; even if fertility rate were to drop to replacement level, population would continue to grow for at least 40 years.

Contracting base – showing decline in birth rate and the beginnings of the population stabilisation.

Large numbers of migrant workers – 75% of these are men – create the bulge in the pyramid.

Low numbers of older generations; many migrant workers will retire to their own country. When these people were young, there was little free healthcare.

Vital Rates (2010):

Life expectancy: 75 years

Birth Rate: 15.5 births per 1000

Death rate: 2.44 deaths per 1000

Growth rate: 0.9%

Qatar’s population had grown 10 fold in 40 years; there is no longer enough fresh water to meet the population’s demands; negative population checks in place – women are marrying later.

Necessity is the mother of invention; extensive desalinisation of water; 95% of food imported so Malthus not relevant; diversification to reduce dependency on oil; tourism expanding; IT and expert management of water resources key factors in success

Meeting the challenge…

Nationalisation policy put into place in 2000

2004 – Permanent Population Committee put in place

Government trying to reduce the number of foreign workers; the recession has helped with this as building projects are grinding to a halt and rents are increasing.

Why migrate to the UK?

Unemployment rate in Poland is high - 18.2% in 2005. The UK’s unemployment rate is only 5.1% in 2005, and was experiencing significant skill shortage, particularly in rural areas. The GDP per capita in Poland is $12700, whereas in the UK it is $30,900. St the time of the 2004 accession, the UK was one of only 3 countries not to place restrictions on A8 migrants. Polish migrants can earn 4 or 5 times what they would in Poland

Who migrates?

People with vocational training, secondary education and working experience; young migrants who have just finished secondary education or vocational training (43% of migrants are between 18-34 years old); young, unmarried migrants with a tertiary education looking to improve their English and gain working experience.

Costs to the Origin:

Creation of an ageing population; it is expected that the 65+ age group will increase from 11 to 27% and the 19-44 age group will decrease from 38% to 27%; loss of workforce; social and age imbalance; exploitation of Polish workers in the UK.

Benefits to the Origin:

Unemployment has fallen from 18% in 2004 to 10% in 2007; temporary migrants send 35% of money home as remittances; links established with the UK, resulting in 8 airports of the UK flying routes to Poland.

Costs to the host:

Social and cultural tensions between migrants and communities; political tensions growing around the issue of immigration control; increased pressure of services (education, NHS, housing); increase in population; issues regarding employment of Poles over English workers

Benefits to the host:

Filled the skills gaps – for example in Highland Scotland, new migrants have allowed to growth of the fish processing industry; counteracts the ageing population of the UK; development of a multicultural society.

Consequences of decline…

o Many people left behind are elderly and of limited means

o Houses are bought as second homes, creating a ghost town effect for much of the year

o Deprivation sets in – many of the people left cannot afford to move away and live restricted lives

o Sense of isolation

o

The main issue is breaking the spiral of decline by restricting the number of second home owners and lowering property prices for locals.

Consequences of expansion…

o Small new housing estates are built often with houses that locals cannot afford

o Many families have 2 cars increasing traffic congestion

o ‘Dormitory villages’ with little life during the day

o Conflicts between established villagers and new comers

Maintaining rural identity in an increasingly urban environment is the main issue here.

Byker: What was it like?

Rows of terraced housing designed in 19th century for the manual labourers of the ship building and engineering industries.

What changed?

Housing scheme to rehouse people from the area creation of the Wall, a 5 story medium-rise housing block; out migration of original inhabitants who could afford to buy own home; in migration of migrants and asylum seekers who needed social housing.

Jesmond: What was it like?

Large 3 storey Georgian family houses (for richer owners and managers of industry), as well as Tyneside flats, small terraced houses (for lower middle class).

What changed?

In the middle of the 20th century, families were unable to run the large houses and moved out. Houses nearest to the city centre were taken over by solicitors and other small businesses. Other houses which are further from the centre are sublet to the rapidly growing student population. This studentification has moved the area downmarket, with more noise, poorer upkeep of properties and increased pressure on remaining families to move out.

Castle Ward: What was it like?

Part of Gosforth, a town absorbed by Newcastle’s urban growth. Much of the area was wealthy middle class housing (for commuters) as well as some former miners’ homes.

What changed?

By 2000, housing had spread right up the edge of the green belt to the North. Pressure grew to allow expansion onto the greenbelt, and the government allowed some construction of modern housing and science based industry. Infilling of Brownfield sites has also taken place to create flats.

Longhorsley: What was it like?

Ancient peel tower in the centre of the village, houses for farmers and agricultural workers. In 1950s, it was a successful farming community with 3 farms, smallholdings, several shops and pubs.

What changed?

All farms are gone; farm buildings have been turned into residential dwellings. In migration of commuters, who use land for recreation, and keeping horses. Most residents commute to work elsewhere. A number of estates with large private houses have been built on the edge of the village to house the influx of commuters.

LEA – an area on the rural urban fringe. There are semi detached houses with gardens and driveways. There is a golf course and shopping promenades.

Proportion of ethnic minorities decreases as you move out of the city

Wealth tends to increase

FISHWICK – an inner city area with high density 19th century terraced housing. A few convenience stores, but most travel to city centre for other services.

ASHTON – suburban area with terraced housing as well as larger detached and semi detached houses on the border of Ashton Park. Lane Ends shopping area has lots of shops.

LONGTON – rural area with housing estates containing many new large detached and semi detached properties with gardens and garages. A59 Longton Bypass provides easy access to City centre for commuters. Many shops and services.

Longton has the greatest amount of privately owned houses – 92.7% compared to 60.5% in Fishwick. In Fishwick, 17.5% of houses don’t have central heating, whereas in Longton, only 3.7% don’t have central heating.

The proportion of ethnic minorities decreases as you move away from the city entre; 66.5% white in Fishwick compared to 99.2% white in Longton.

The percentage of elderly is greater as you move away from the city – in Fishwick, only 15% of the population is aged over 60, whereas in Longton it is 28.4%.

Wealth – using car ownership as an indicator – 57.4% of household own at least one car in Fishwick compared to 88.5% of households in Longton.

Employment – Unemployment decreases as you move further from the city – 5.9% unemployed in Fishwick compared to 1.1% in Longton. % of people working in the professional or management sector increases as you move towards Longton – 15.7% in Fishwick, 30.7% in Longton.

Impacts on Social Welfare

o 74% of people in Lea described their health as good. In Fishwick, only 65% of people described their health as good. This may be because a higher percentage of people in Fishwick live in houses that are damp and without central heating. The higher occupancy rate (4.8% of houses have more than 1 occupant per room) aids the spread of disease.

o Preston Crime Audit found 161 crimes per 1000 people in Fishwick, compared to 52 per 1000 in Lea. Higher crime rates could be caused by higher unemployment and lower wealth. Theft of vehicles higher in Fishwick, perhaps due to the lack of driveways or garages.

o Levels of education are lower in Fishwick; 44.7% have no qualifications, whereas in Ashton this figure is 21.4%.

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