Climate Change –an Emerging Issue in Health

[Pages:52]Climate Change ? an Emerging Issue in Health

Colin Summerhayes Scientific Committee on Antarctic Research (International Council for Science)

Scott Polar Research Institute, Cambridge University Ex Member: Steering Committee for the Global Climate Observing System

Ex Director: Institute of Oceanographic Sciences Deacon Laboratory, UK

World Health Organisation's Global Health Histories Seminar, Geneva, 24 March 2010

Climate change and health

Aside from extreme events, climate change is seldom the main factor in considering stresses on sustainability;

Vulnerability depends on specific geographical and social contexts (state of development is a key);

Adaptive capacity needs to be improved (fresh water and sanitation infrastructure);

Adverse impacts will be higher in poorer countries;

Access to water is a key vulnerability indicator (the Issue of aquifers).

Malaria: additional 220-400 million at risk; Reduction in SE Africa in 2020; decreases in Sahel and south-central Africa in 2080; local increases in highlands by 2100. Some increased risk in UK, Australia, India and Portugal.

IPCC WG-II, 2007

Climate science: the fundamentals

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Climate science: the fundamentals

Greenhouse gases warm the planet

? 1827 ? Jean-Baptiste Fourier first recognises warming effect of greenhouse gases

? 1860 ? John Tyndall first measures the absorption of infrared radiation by carbon dioxide and water vapour

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Climate science: the fundamentals

? 1769 James Watt patents his steam engine, marking onset of the Industrial Revolution

? 1957 ? Keeling starts to measure atmospheric CO2 concentration in Hawaii

? 2000s ? Isotope analysis shows CO2 in the air carries the signature of fossil fuels

IPCC 2007 has "very high confidence" that humans are increasing the concentration of greenhouse gases, so making temperatures rise ?

10% probability that this is NOT the case.

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Carbon dioxide concentration over the past 1000 years

David MacKay `Sustainable energy Without the Hot air'

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GLOBAL POPULATION ESTIMATES

A vicious circle for our times More people use more energy; More energy means more emissions; More people want affluence; More affluence means more gadgets; More gadgets need yet more energy; Which produces yet more emissions.



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