School of International Relations



School of International Relations/USC

Professor Steven Lamy

Fall 2011 Wednesday 4-6:50 SOS B-40

Office Hours: By Appointment

IR 521: Foreign Policy Analysis

I have come across men of letters who have written history without taking part in public affairs, and politicians who have concerned themselves with producing events without thinking about them. I have observed that the first are always inclined to find general causes whereas the second, living in the midst of disconnected daily facts, are prone to imagine that everything is attributable to particular incidents, and that the wires they pull are the same as those that move the world. It is presumed that both are equally deceived. Alex De Tocqueville

This is an introductory graduate course in the field of foreign policy analysis. As the core course in the foreign policy domain, we will explore the history of foreign policy studies in the Western academic community. Most foreign policy courses are idiographic and descriptive focusing on current policy issues. This is a hybrid course in that both theoretical questions and policy processes are explored and evaluated through the use of case studies. The course is designed to do the following:

1) Prepare students to critically evaluate the theoretical literature in the field of foreign policy

2) Consider the various factors that influence the making of foreign policy

3) Critically review contemporary foreign policy issues from both academic and policy perspectives

4) Provide an opportunity for students to research and write their own foreign policy case study or conduct a comprehensive literature review that will prepare them for comprehensive exams in this field.

There is a rather significant literature in foreign policy analysis that includes both theoretical and policy studies. With the exception of the case studies, most of the course will focus on studies that explore ways of explaining the behavior of states and evaluating foreign policy decisions. Most of the readings fall within the traditional empirical/positivist approach to the study of international relations including descriptive accounts of policy situations and decision-making processes, hypotheses generating studies aimed at explaining the actions of states; and, comparative evaluations of specific policy actions. The limitations and potential problems with this type of research are recognized; however, empirical studies tend to have more relevance in the policy world than do postmodern critical theory accounts of the meaning of power or criticisms of mainstream theories in foreign policy.

Since the critical/reflectivist or post-positivist literature is covered in other graduate seminars and this course is a “gateway” to other regional foreign policy courses, the readings tend to favor more mainstream policy issues and questions. Readings and discussions are intended to familiarize seminar participants with the process of theory development, theory testing, and policy analysis and evaluation in the field of foreign policy.

The learning objectives for this seminar are listed below:

1. To provide an overview of the evolution of the study of foreign policy and introduce the student to the literature in this area.

2. To explore and assess various middle-range theoretical approaches related to the levels of analysis used in the study of state behavior.

3. To review different research orientations, both rationalist and reflectivist, and to develop skills of policy analysis and evaluation.

4. To explore new policy issues and research concerns that are defined by debates in the general field of international relations and in the specific area of foreign policy analysis.

5. To develop critical thinking and analytical skills by inhabiting cases and participating in class discussions about foreign policy decision-making.

There will be no formal lectures in this course. Students will be expected to participate in each seminar. An important aspect of critical thinking is the development of intellectual courage and the confidence to express informed views in an open discussion. To facilitate this process, students will be assigned a few questions to answer each week. We will also be using retrospective and problem-based case studies that focus on foreign policy decision-making. You must participate in every class session to get credit for the course. Your course grade includes the ability to express yourself competently in both written and oral exercises. If you do not volunteer, you will be called upon. There is no place to hide in this seminar.

We have both PhD and MA students in this course. I expect a high level of commitment from both student groups. I will, however, expect more theoretical knowledge from the doctoral students and expect them to cover more of the literature in their weekly readings assignments.

Seminar Requirements

Seminar participation/attendance:

You are expected to be at all seminars. Once a week is not a hardship. I will deduct five points for each seminar missed without a valid medical or related excuse.

Case Questions and Class Discussions 40%

Individual Project 40%

Final Examination 20%

The individual project might include a publishable quality research paper, a review article, a case study or convince me that there may be a better project that will advance your understanding of foreign policy and your career.

Seminar Outline:

8/24/2011

Session #1: Overview of course, review of assignments, introduction to case process, student expectations, and a discussion of the development of the field of IR and the place of foreign policy analysis (FPA).

8/31/2011

Session #2: Major theoretical debates in IR-a review and the fundamentals of foreign policy analysis: Policy-maker and academic views/theory and policy debates.

9/7/2011

Session #3: How it all started: Decision-makers and foreign policy

9/14/2011

Session #4: Decision-maker…continued

9/21/2011

Session #5: Domestic sources of foreign policy

9/28/2011

Session #6: Domestic sources…continued

10/5/2011

Session #7: Foreign Policy Implementation

10/12/2011

Session #8: Two-level games, second image reversed and systemic approaches

10/19/2011

Session #9: Globalization and foreign policy

10/26/2011

Session #10: Is an ethical foreign policy possible?

11/2/2011

Session #11: Constructivism and foreign policy

11/9/2011

Session #12: Improving Decision-making and evaluating policy

11/16/2011

Session #13: Humanitarian Intervention/R2P

11/30/2011

Session #14: Foreign Policy and the War on Terrorism

12/2/2009

Session #15: Make–up session for a review before the exam.

Required Texts (Available at USC Bookstore or )

R. K.C. Hersman, Friends and Foes. How Congress and the President Really Make Foreign Policy (Brookings 2000)

C. Hill, The Changing Politics of Foreign Policy (Palgrave 2003)

O. Holsti, Making American Foreign Policy (Routledge 2006)

V. Hudson, Foreign Policy Analysis (Rowan and Littlefield

2007)

C. Tilly, Why? (Princeton 2006)

Case Study Custom reader includes 13 Harvard Kennedy School case studies and 2 Pew/Georgetown case studies

Not ordered but available on Amazon or other online book sellers:

Michael Doyle, Ways of War and Peace (Norton 1997)

If you do not have a background in IR, this is a great introduction to the major theoretical traditions.

If you cannot afford the books please check them out of the library. I will try to have copies in my office. You may also want to share books with colleagues.

Not required but may be helpful as references or background:

L. Neack, J. Hey, P. Haney (editors), Foreign Policy Analysis. Continuity and Change in its Second Generation (Prentice Hall, 1995)

Smith, Hadfield and Dunne, Foreign Policy. Theories, Actors, Cases (Oxford 2008)

N. Woods, Explaining International Relations Since 1945 (Oxford 1996)

Reserved readings should be available on JSTOR and I will put some on Blackboard. I will often add important readings during the semester.

I do not expect you to do all of the assigned readings. However, you should try to read all of the books that you buy and please read all of the cases. I will point-out important readings and if you are not clear on a concept, just keep reading… or ask me!

I will also share a supplemental reading list for the PhD students and for anyone interested in further exploration of issues.

Seminars and Readings

Seminar One: Introduction and Overview of Class and Seminar Process

Instructor’s mapping of foreign policy

Introduction to case learning

Student expectations

1. The analytical/scholarly world: middle range theories and testable propositions

2. The policy world: programs and priorities

Sample Case Study: Capt. Rockwood

Discussion: The critical policy and analytical issues being raised by C. Hill:

Who makes foreign policy: insiders or outsiders?

Why do powerful states fail to consider the impact of their foreign policy decisions on other states and the international system?

Assigned Readings for Session Two:

V. Hudson, Foreign Policy Analysis, Chapters 1, 7 and 8

David Newsom, “Foreign Policy and Academia,” Foreign Policy, Winter 1995-6, p 52-67

C. Hill, The Changing Politics of Foreign Policy, Chapters 1 and 2

A. George, “Knowledge for Statecraft” International Security Summer 1997, p 44-52

O. Holsti, Making American Foreign Policy, Chapters 12 & 13

C. Tilly, Why?

Hans J. Morgenthau, “ The Age of Science and the Social World”, Scientific Man versus Power Politics

Find what you think is a thoughtful and useful article about the future of foreign policy of any country other than the US in this era of nonpolarity, political polarization, economic uncertainty, crises of identity and uneven globalization.

Additional/Optional Readings:

Steve Smith, “Foreign Policy Theory and the New Europe,” in Carlsnaes and Smith, European Foreign Policy, p 1-20

J.N. Rosenau, “Introduction: New Directions and Recurrent Questions in the Comparative Study of Foreign Policy,” in Hermann, Kegley, and Rosenau, New Directions in the Study of Foreign Policy, p 1-10

M. Light, “Foreign Policy Analysis,” in Groom and Light, Contemporary International Relations: A Guide to Theory, p 93-108

……………………………………………………………………………………………….

Seminar Two: The fundamentals of foreign policy.

A brief history of foreign policy analysis methods, middle-range theory, comparative foreign policy and the future of foreign policy studies.

- IR traditions and core theories and foreign policy

- Why did foreign policy analysis and comparative foreign policy fail?

- Is this the future of foreign policy analysis?

- Agent-Structure or more than that? How do we know who decides and how they decide?

Readings listed above…

If you have no background in the core theoretical traditions in IR…consider the following:

Michael Doyle, Ways of War and Peace, (Norton, 1997) Excellent coverage of realism, liberalism and socialism

Robert C Johansen, The National Interest and the Human Interest, Chapter 3 – p 126-195

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Seminar Three: Decision-makers and foreign policy- Agents, Structure, and levels of analysis

Assigned Readings:

D. P. Houghton, “ Reinvigorating the Study of Foreign Policy Decision-Making: Toward a Constructivist Approach,” FPA, Jan. 2007. P 24-45

O, Holsti, Making America Foreign Policy, Chapters 1-3

C. Hill, The Changing Politics of Foreign Policy, Part 1, Agency

Y. Vertzberger, The World in Their Minds, Chapters 1,3 & 7

V. Hudson, Foreign Policy Analysis, Chapter 2

A. Mintz and Karl DeRouen, Understanding Foreign Policy Decision-Making, Chapters 4 and 5

Policy article:

Weber and Jentleson, The End of Arrogance. America in the Global Competition of Ideas. Chapter 2

Additional/Optional Readings:

J. Goldstein and R.O. Keohane, Ideas and Foreign Policy, Chapters 1, 6 and 9

Lisa Martin, “The Contributions of Rational Choice: A Defense of Pluralism,” International Security, Fall 1999 p 74-83

A. George, “The Operational Code,” ISQ, (December 1969) p 199-210

Margaret Hermann et al, “ Who Leads Matters: The Effects of Powerful Individuals,” in Hagan and Hermann, Leaders, Groups and Coalitions (Blackwell, 2001)

Mintz, Alex. (2004) How Do Leaders Make Decisions?: A Poliheuristic Perspective. The Journal of Conflict Resolution 48:3-13.

Rose McDermott, N. Wenimont and Cheryl Koopman, “ Applying Psychology to International Studies: Challenges and opportunities in Examining Traumatic Stress” in International Studies Perspectives (2011) p. 119-135

Case: Keeping the Cold War Cold (Harvard-JFK School)

Case: Blessed are the Peacemakers: Senator Danforth as Special Envoy to the Sudan

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Seminar Four: Decision Maker/ Level I (continued)

Assigned Readings:

Continue from previous week

Case: Getting to Dayton (Harvard-JFK School)

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Seminar Five: Second Image: Domestic Sources of Foreign Policy

Assigned Readings:

C. Hill, The Changing Politics of Foreign Policy, Chapters 9 & 10

V. Hudson, Foreign Policy Analysis, Chapters 3-6

O. Holsti, Making American Foreign Policy, Part II-chapters 4 and 5 9-11

Graham T. Allison, Essence of Decision, Chapters 3-6

Walter Lippmann, Public Opinion, p 3-49

Hagan et al, “How Decision Units Shape Foreign Policy” and

“ Foreign Policy by Coalition,” in Hagan and Hermann, Leaders, Groups, and Coalitions

Joost Herman, “The Dutch Drive for Humanitarianism,” International Journal Autumn 2006, p 859-874

Ann-Sofie Dahl, “Sweden. Once a Moral Superpower, Always a Moral Superpower,” in IJ Autumn 2006, p 895-908

Stephen D. Krasner, “Are Bureaucracies Important? (Or Allison Wonderland)”, Foreign Policy, Simmer 1972 p 159-179

W. Sewell, “The Concept(s) of Culture” In Bonnel and Hunt, Beyond the Cultural Turn.

J. Rosenau, “Pre-Theories and Theories of Foreign Policy”

Michael Barnett, “ The UN Security Council, Indifference, and Genocide in Rwanda, in Cultural Anthropology, Vol. 12, #4 Nov. 1997 551-578

C. Ingebritsen, “Norm Entrepreneurs: Scandinavia’s Role in World Politics,” in Small States in International Relations

Policy Articles:

Andrew Bacevich, Washington Rules, Introduction, Chapters 1 and 6

Michael Mandelbaum, The Frugal Superpower, Chapters 4 and 5

Additional/Optional Readings:

R. Schweller, “Domestic Structure and Preventative War: Are Democracies more Pacific?” World Politics (January 1992)

Thomas Risse-Kappen, “Public Opinion, Domestic Structure and Foreign Policy in Liberal Democracies,” World Politics, (July 1991)

JFK Case: Debt Relief for Poor Nations

Pew Case Study: The Dutch in Srebrenica (Parts A & B)

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Seminar Six: Domestic Sources…continued

Assigned Readings:

R. K. C. Hersman, Friends and Foes. How Congress and the President Really Make Foreign Policy, Chapters 1-3 and at least one case.

W. Stroebel, Late-Breaking Foreign Policy, Chapter 2

Other readings on public opinion and foreign policy and the role of the media will be added.

JFK Case Study: Smarter Foreign Aid

……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………

Seminar Seven: Foreign Policy Implementation

What happens once the decision is made?

Assigned readings:

Seymour Hersh, “ The Stovepipe,” New Yorker, Oct. 27, 2003

JFK Case Study: The Accidental Statesman

Pew Case: Pakistan in the Bush Years

……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………

Seminar Eight: Two-level games, second image reversed, and systemic approaches

Assigned Readings:

C. Hill, The Changing Politics of Foreign Policy, Part II

R. Jervis, System Effects. Complexity in Political and Social Life, Chapter 7, p 253-295

R. Pastor, “Looking Back and Forward. The Trajectories of the Great Powers,” in A Century’s Journey. How the Great Powers Shape the World.

Jan Van Oudenaren, “ The EU as a Foreign Policy Actor: Toward A New Realism in Tiersky and Van Oudenaren, European Foreign Policies

B. Yvars, “ EU Integration and Other Integration Models,” in F. Bindi, The Foreign Policy of the European Union.

J. Mearsheimer, “The False Promise of International Institutions” in Brown, et all, p 332-376

M.List and Volker Rittberger, “Regime Theory and International Environmental Management,” in Hurrell and Kingsbury, The International Politics of the Environment, p 85-109

R. Putnam, “Two-Level Games: The Impact of Domestic Politics on Transatlantic Bargaining”, in Haftendorn and Tuschhoff, America and Europe in An Era of Change (1993)

M. Kahler, “Bargaining with the IMF: Two-Level Strategies and Developing Countries”, in Evans, et al. Double-Edged Diplomacy (1993)

JFK Case Studies: The Eagle and the Dragon and Carrots, Sticks and Question Marks

…………………………………………………………………………………………………………………..

Seminar Nine: Globalization, Global Governance and foreign policy

Assigned Readings:

P. Battersby and J. M. Siracusa, Globalization and Human Security, Chapters 1 and 4

D. Avant, M. Finnemore and S. Sell, Who Governs the Globe, Chapters 1 and 10

D. Held and A. McGrew, “The End of the Old Order? Globalization and the Prospects for World Order,” in Dunne, Cox and Booth, The Eighty Years’ Crisis

Lloyd Axworthy and Sara Taylor , “A Ban for All Seasons,” International Journal, Spring 1998 p 189-203

M. Keck and K. Sikkink, Activists Beyond Borders, Chapter 1

K. Rodman, “Think Globally and Punish Locally…” Ethics and International Affairs, 1998. P 19-41

W. Reinicke, “The Other Worldwide Web,” Foreign Policy, Winter 1999-2000

M. Libicki, “The Mouse’s New Roar,” Foreign Policy, Winter 1999-2000

Manuel Castells, “Global Governance and Global Politics,” PS, January 2005

JFK Case Study: Testing the Reach of International Law

……………………………………………………………………………………………..

Seminar Ten: Ethical Foreign Policy

Assigned Readings:

Chris Brown, “Ethics, Interests and Foreign Policy,”

Tim Dunne and Nicholas Wheeler, “Blair’s Britain: A Force for Good in the World?” both in K.E. Smith and M. Light, Ethics and Foreign Policy, (Cambrige 2001) Chapter 2 & 10

K. Booth, T. Dunne and M. Cox, How Might We Live, Chapters 1 and 5

M. Barnett and T. Weiss, Humanitarianism in Question, Chapters 1 and 6

S. Hoffmann, Duties Beyond Borders, Chapters 1 and 5

JFK Case Study: The Gulf Crisis

Out of class option: Film: Breaker Morant

…………………………………………………………………………………………………………………...

Seminar Eleven: Constructivism and Foreign Policy

Assigned Readings:

P. Katzenstein, Culture of National Security, Chapter 2

J. Goldstein and R. Keohane, Ideas and Foreign Policy p 3-30

David Patrick Houghton, “Reinventing oratory. The study of Foreign Policy Decision-making: Toward a Constructivist Approach” FPA, Jan 2007

T. Hopf, “The Promise of Constructivism,” International Security, Summer 1998

Case: Sunk Costs (JFK-Harvard)

……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………

Seminar Twelve: Improving Decision-Making

Assigned Readings:

Neustadt and May, Thinking in Time

Sections will be distributed

………………………………………………………………………………………………………………......

Seminar Thirteen: Humanitarian Intervention and R2P

ICISS, The Responsibility to Protect (download from website)

S. Hoffmann, Duties Beyond Borders, Chapters 1 and 5

……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………

Seminar Fourteen: Foreign Policy and the War on Terrorism

JFK Case Study: Credible Warnings or False Alarms

……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………

Seminar Fifteen: Make-Up Session

Seminar Rules

Meeting once a week is not a hardship. I expect perfect attendance. Obviously if you are ill or have another acceptable reason, you may be excused from a the seminar in question. Without a university-sanctioned excuse, you will drop a half of a grade ½ grade per missed seminar.

Discussion climate: I prefer a collaborative seminar environment. There are four types of seminars: Free for All, Beauty Contest, Distinguished House Tour and Barn-Raising. We will try to create a rich intellectual conversation by implementing a Barn-Raising strategy.

An important note on the culture of a case class:

- Generally each case will take up about 40 minutes of our seminar. No one will be allowed to enter the class after our discussion has begun. Arrive on time!

- Do not come to class if you have not read the core readings and the assigned case study. You all must participate during every class session. If you generally do not participate during classes do not take this one.

- Learn to listen to your classmates and to yourself. Think before you open your mouth and do not repeat what has already been said. Link your comments to those made by your classmates.

Grading Your Participation

I will grade your participation in this seminar after each case study. This happens in the best policy programs and law schools in this country. If you think about it, it happens everyday in any professional position. I will use the following four categories to evaluate your work:

1. Substance

a. Was the answer correct?

b. Did the student use case information in their response?

c. Does this student understand the case and its relation to other course readings?

2. Critical Listening

a. Relevance of comment?

b. Does the student link comments to others already made by colleagues?

c. Does the comment take us in a productive direction or does it pull us away from the case or the discussion on the table?

3. Creative and Critical Thinking

4. Clarity of Responses

a. Clear, concise, coherent and appropriate responses

Students with Disabilities (the information below was provided by the office of the Provost)

“Any student requesting academic accommodations based on a disability is required to register with Disability Services and Programs (DSP) each semester. A letter of verification for approved accommodations can be obtained from DSP. Please be sure that the letter is delivered to any of the Instructors as early in the semester as possible. DSP is located in on campus in STU 301, and is open from 8:30 a.m. - 5:00 p.m., Monday through Friday. The phone number for DSP is (213) 740-0776.”

Plagiarism

Any work you present for academic credit must be yours alone, with appropriate attribution to source materials you have used. The guidelines located at are very helpful, and I encourage you to review them carefully. Penalties for plagiarism are tough and they apply immediately upon the first instance. Please do the right thing and do not put me in a position where I am required to demonstrate our resolve on this point.

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