Baseball's nerd machine - Michigan State University
Baseball's nerd machine
by DARREN EVERSON, The Wall Street Journal
[pic][pic]Updated: May 27, 2008, 4:03 PM EST 33 comments
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[pic][pic]The baseball box score, bless its little numerical heart, is dead. It lived a nice, long life — about 140 years — but it has outlived its usefulness. Its archaic statistics, pilloried for years by serious statisticians, tell you only what players have done, not what they're capable of doing. It's the past.
The future doesn't lie in newer, better statistics, however. It isn't really grounded in numbers at all. The future, like it or not, is in pictures.
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Since 2006, Major League Baseball Advanced Media LP, baseball's swashbuckling digital arm, has quietly spent approximately $4 million installing sensor cameras in major-league stadiums that can track and record the trajectory of every pitch. The system, called Pitch f/x, made its public debut in the 2006 postseason. This season it became operational in all 30 major-league parks.
It measures the "break," or off-line movement, of each pitch to an accuracy of within one inch, calculates the speed of the ball near its release point and at home plate and creates an image of the ball's arc that is visible on a computer screen. Observers can view the results on .
While nobody is sure what this means for baseball, it is generating a great deal of talk. Earlier this month in San Francisco, Sportvision Inc., the sports-entertainment technology company that helped develop the system, hosted a Pitch f/x "summit." By the end, the stats wonks, engineers and nine team representatives in attendance could barely contain themselves. "It's tremendously exciting for people like me," said Mat Olkin, a Kansas City Royals consultant.
Keith Woolner, the manager of research and analysis for the Cleveland Indians, said the ability to capture such detailed measurements is "the next step" in baseball knowledge and strategy.
Since sportswriter Henry Chadwick ushered in the modern age of scorekeeping in the 1860s, the chief tool baseball analysts have used is the naked eye. Statistics in the box score cover only what can be observed: the number of runs the pitcher allowed, for example, or the doubles a hitter collected. Even the advanced "Moneyball" statistics developed in recent years also rely on what can be seen and recorded by hand.
Pitch f/x starts baseball down the path of learning how players do things — which batter hits the ball the hardest, which shortstop has the quickest reflexes, what pitcher has the nastiest slider. It showed, for instance, that St. Louis Cardinals pitcher Adam Wainwright had one of baseball's most violent curve balls in 2007, with up to nine inches of vertical drop and more than seven inches of horizontal movement. Perhaps consequently, Mr. Wainwright had an unusually high rate of swings-and-misses against his curve (38% versus a league average of a little more than 25%), according to a sampling of data by Harry Pavlidis, a baseball analyst who writes a prominent blog about the Chicago Cubs.
Nearly everyone at the conference believed such advancements in measuring fundamentals could finally bring a "why" to the "what" of box scores and stat sheets. The same technology will spread to hitting and fielding, they say, and could be applied to other sports.
"Instead of saying, 'There's a hard smash to third base' we could say, 'That ball was hit 106 mph and the third baseman had a third of a second to react.' " says Peter Jensen, a statistician and summit attendee who has written for the Hardball Times, a baseball analysis site. "That adds some context that's been lacking so far."
The scene at the Pitch f/x summit was symbolic of baseball's increasing wonkiness. The 52 attendees — some of them college professors — met to discuss how to improve the system and how to interpret its results. Participants swapped theories about determining the coefficient of drag and made jokes about the difficulty analyzing Boston pitcher Tim Wakefield's knuckleball. Nine major-league clubs sent representatives to the summit, including the New York Yankees, Boston Red Sox and Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim.
It isn't clear how many teams are using the data — although some clearly are. Before this season, Brian Bannister, a Kansas City Royals starting pitcher, noticed that when batters connected with his pitches and put them in play, about 27% became base hits — a figure far lower than the typical 30%. Some analysts said Mr. Bannister was simply lucky. But after checking the data from Pitch f/x, Mr. Bannister noticed batters who'd hit his curveball were much less successful than those who'd hit his fastball. The upshot: his most effective pitch may be a hittable curve.
Not everyone is infatuated with this technology — a fact that became clear during Pitch f/x's debut on 2006 postseason telecasts on FOX. After its cameras clocked pitches from Detroit's Joel Zumaya at the unheard-of speed of 103 mph, some fans assumed it was broken. Sportvision says the system was measuring the ball's speed at the release point rather than in mid-flight, as radar guns do.
"I think this stuff is helpful in a way," says retired manager Jack McKeon, who won the 2003 World Series title with the Florida Marlins, "but I still think you need to use your eyes."
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|[pic] |hardball_4_life |(report inappropriate content) |
| |5/29/2008 |yea baseball is a business and yeah umps aren't perfect but just bcuz somethin isnt perfect doesnt mean u |
| |11:47 AM |should just get rid of it thats half the excitement of baseball when there's a close call at the plate and |
| | |the fans on both sides think they should get it who has the best vantage point...the umpire, when they do |
| | |make a bad call and the coaches come out to argue cuz their players go bak to them complainin who's gonna |
| | |argue bak, a computer can freeze up and stuff too do u want to wait even longer to reboot it no none of us |
| | |do bottom line the best part of any game is the anticipation when some1 hits a shot and every1 in the |
| | |stands get on their feet quackin not knowin if the ball will go and it finally does and the crowd erupts, |
| | |this is the same concept when theres a play at the plate and the ump runs everything through his mind then |
| | |the call is made of course ppl are gonna get ticked and others are gonna jump around in excitement no |
| | |matter wat theres two sides to ever story |
|[pic] |redsoxrule666 |(report inappropriate content) |
| |5/29/2008 |it can,t be any worse than the deaf dumb and blind men the call mlb umpires |
| |11:46 AM | |
|[pic] |Jalapeno Man |(report inappropriate content) |
| |5/29/2008 |even though this Pitch f/x can telll trainers, scounts, coaches , and players what pitchers are throwing |
| |11:27 AM |and how nasty the pitch may be, it will never take the human f/x out the game. Hitter will still need to |
| | |track the pitch from it's release and calculate in their own brain (not what a computer says) trajectory |
| | |and speed and make the adjustment to try and hit it. |
| | |All this technology has no place in Baseball. Baseball is pure and fair. It is the only game that keeps us |
| | |grounded. Human factor it's what is all about, it is life. |
|[pic] |mkrough23 |(report inappropriate content) |
| |5/29/2008 |Baseball is a business whether we like it or not. By neglecting to use new technologies, like any other |
| |11:18 AM |business, no longer will baseball be America's past-time, but America's past. Bring new technologies while |
| | |keeping old traditions! Stats will never vanish, just like little boys throwing up balls to themselves |
| | |hitting the winning run of the World Series!! |
|[pic] |RussellBeckley |(report inappropriate content) |
| |5/29/2008 |If we are lucky, scientists will devise a system to accurately predict a winner. This will save us from |
| |11:17 AM |having to sit through nine, or any, innings. Saves on injuries and automobile traffic to the game. Players |
| | |won't need steroids because scientists can merely predict what will happen if they took steroids, and |
| | |adjust the results accordingly. |
|[pic] |WaveMON |(report inappropriate content) |
| |5/29/2008 |I disagree with you GoColts. |
| |11:13 AM |I watched McGuire hit, what would normally be a pop fly, but was a homerun. So ROIDS do make a difference. |
|[pic] |GoColts! |(report inappropriate content) |
| |5/29/2008 |thank you STEELERCOUNTRY... this has been my arguement about BONDS for years now. even if he did use ROIDS |
| |11:04 AM |he still has to hit the damn ball. this is what makes baseball so difficult. i cant say its the hardest |
| | |sport, but it is difficult to play both O & D and be good at both. i would have to say hockey or basketball|
| | |would be the hardest american sport.... |
|[pic] |sedandun |(report inappropriate content) |
| |5/29/2008 |we call it 'hawkeye' here in the uk it is only used at the moment in tennis and cricket. very successfully,|
| |11:00 AM |more poer to the robot's elbow! |
|[pic] |GIANTS/METS |(report inappropriate content) |
| |5/29/2008 |Danger will Robinson! |
| |10:58 AM | |
|[pic] |SteelerCountry08 |(report inappropriate content) |
| |5/29/2008 |I think all of you, who are making stupid comments about umpires, need to get a life. |
| |10:58 AM |Baseball is the most true and hardest sport to play! Who cares whether an umpire calls a ball when its a |
| | |strike or a foul ball when its fair, PEOPLE ARE HUMAN! NO ONE'S PERFECT!, you still have to hit the ball |
| | |regardless of where its at. |
| | |Football just passed baseball, in my opinion, in america's greatest past time- because of ppl who either |
| | |never played the sport or never watched the sport. The game/umpires should NEVER change- the players |
| | |should- adapt to the environment like every other living organism in the world! |
|[pic] |svdital |(report inappropriate content) |
| |5/29/2008 |I'm of the younger generation that would hate to see the game become mechanized. That is because I was |
| |10:53 AM |raised to appreciate the great American past time as it is. All the technology has done for this country is|
| | |make us fat, lazy, and ungrateful for what we had. Why even watch real ball players play, lets just play |
| | |video games. After all with the right cheat codes you can win all the time and never have to deal with an |
| | |imperfect umpire again. The fact is we're too lazy to even do that. (ha) We're too wrapped up in a game |
| | |that we can't even appreciate the human element of the game. The fans are about as bias as they get. |
| | |What will we do when we hit that perfect robotic utopia and we find out the computer was tampered with or |
| | |malfunctioned? You'll just have a new set of problems. I'll tell you this, when baseball goes to a instant |
| | |replay and robotic umps I'm not watching the game anymore. I'd rather watch local little league and holler |
| | |at the umps. |
|[pic] |GIANTS/METS |(report inappropriate content) |
| |5/29/2008 |The umpiring job was created for a reason - to make the game fair by calling the plays as well as the |
| |10:50 AM |pitches rather than having the players argue about every call with one another. That need will never go |
| | |away. With this said i think some umps are pretty biased or incompetent. |
|[pic] |steve3b1619 |(report inappropriate content) |
| |5/29/2008 |Getting rid of umpires would be terrible. Sure there would be no inaccuracies, but you lose the entire |
| |10:48 AM |human aspect of the game. It's part of what makes baseball baseball. The strike zone. Borderline calls. |
| | |Jeffrey Maier. Baseball is a game of inches. Removing umpires from the equation would severely affect the |
| | |game, and i think that would be a negative effect. |
|[pic] |pack_man04 |(report inappropriate content) |
| |5/29/2008 |As a little league umpire for over 5 years I have seen a lot of baseball, and had to make many judgement |
| |10:48 AM |calls that a computer could not make. For example on an interferience call that allowed a run to score and |
| | |caused an out, can a computer determine if the run should count. Instant replay should be intalled for |
| | |homeruns and such but judgement calls should remain in the umpires hands. Umpires get it right 99% of the |
| | |time anyway, and computers are not always acurate. |
|[pic] |GIANTS/METS |(report inappropriate content) |
| |5/29/2008 |flvrflv...not ragging on you but the real Flav |
| |10:48 AM | |
|[pic] |GIANTS/METS |(report inappropriate content) |
| |5/29/2008 |Hey Ozzie what an idea! Get rid of the umpires. Then the players would have no one to argue ball and strike|
| |10:46 AM |calls with except each other. Leave it to Flava to come up with something that inane |
|[pic] |redcard64 |(report inappropriate content) |
| |5/29/2008 |How can they do this to baseball? - pretty soon they'll be measuring performance in the workplace and in |
| |10:45 AM |the bedroom. |
| | |Cant anyone sit back and enjoy the game without reveling every moment of movement - I suppose this will be |
| | |used to predict future performance as well since no one seems to care to live in the present. - rc64 |
|[pic] |Nowalks |(report inappropriate content) |
| |5/29/2008 |No umpires? What a stupid comment. Only a geek would want a computer to call balls and strikes. I love my |
| |10:43 AM |computer, but I don’t need it officiating my sports. Officials make mistakes, but don’t we all? When was |
| | |the last time you showed up for work and didn’t make a mistake? Maybe we should replace all error prone |
| | |people with computers. Umpires do a great job and get most of the calls right. |
| | | |
| | |I have one other comment. The game is not slow. People who make that comment do not appreciate or |
| | |understand the finer points of the game. If they’re not getting it in an instant message or high speed |
| | |internet it’s too slow. |
| | | |
| | |People like some of you need to leave the game alone. You are only going to screw up the most beautiful |
| | |game in the world. |
| | | |
| | |Get outside and get the house smell off of you. Learn to play the game. |
| | | |
| | |Computers calling balls and strikes. Give me a break. |
|[pic] |flvrflv |(report inappropriate content) |
| |5/29/2008 |I am not saying get rid of the umps. I have umpired many national tournaments and the bottom line is to get|
| |10:38 AM |the call right. By having a electronic strike zone, the umpire would have a "buzzer" on his indicator. When|
| | |it buzzed, a strike would be called...use technology and make the zone acurate and unbiased to who is |
| | |pitching/batting. It would make the job easier for calling balls and strikes and speed up the game. I am |
| | |just trying to think from outside the box...no pun intended...lol |
|[pic] |shiteater |(report inappropriate content) |
| |5/29/2008 |This is by far the worst articel i have read about sports in a long very time. |
| |10:34 AM | |
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