Does Universal Preschool “pay for itself



The Center for Legislative Analysis

…a project of

The Thomas Jefferson Institute for Public Policy

LEGISLATIVE POLICY BRIEF

Is there a “Business Case” for Universal Preschool?

Advocates for universal preschool argue that there is a long-term “Return On Investment,” paying back the early costs of preschool through decreased K-12 education costs and “positive effects on adult crime, earnings, wealth, welfare dependence and commitment to marriage.” They claim there are returns of anywhere from $4.00 to $7.00 for each dollar invested in preschool.

The most recent claim, by Dr. Robert Lynch in a study for the Economic Policy Institute, contends that a universal preschool program in Virginia would “start paying for itself” after 11 years. Dr. Lynch also suggests an annual price tag of $847 million per year.

On this basis, supporters claim a “business case” for Universal Preschool.

Advocates use three long-term studies to back up their contention: the Perry Preschool study, the Carolina Abecedarian Project, and the Chicago Child-Parent Center program. They then extrapolate the results of these projects over the general population.

The problem is that the populations involved in these three projects are anything but the “general population,” and the programs involved are far more than what the public typically considers “preschool.” For example, Dr. Lynch’s study “assumes a voluntary, high-quality, publicly-funded prekindergarten program that is modeled on the Chicago Child-Parent Center program” (p. 37). What did the Chicago program look like? Components included –

• Parent program includes parent resource room with educational workshops, reading groups and craft projects.

• Parents volunteer in classroom, attend school events and field trips and assisted in completing high school.

• Includes home visitations by staff

• Provides health screening, speech therapy, nursing and meal services.

• Many children in study received tutoring in reading and math until the third grade.

• Intervention was large-scale, lasting six years rather than the one or two year program envisioned by either Dr. Lynch or Governor Kaine.

In fact, Psychologist Dr. Matthew Thompson, of Children’s Hospital in New Orleans, noted in the American Medical Association Journal that “It is possible that parental involvement explains more of the variance in outcome among inner-city children than do structured programs … If policy makers mistakenly accept the conclusion that preschool intervention results in less criminal activity later, they may mistakenly invest in these programs when the money might be better invested in parenting skill programs and other interventions to increase parental involvement. (emphasis ours).”

The other two programs are similarly narrow:

• Perry PreSchool Study

o Involved pre-schoolers deemed to be at risk for “retarded intellectual functioning and eventual school failure.”

o Studied a grand total of 123 children (58 in the experimental group and 65 in the control group).

o Children provided one or two years of half-day preschool for seven months and periodic home visits.

o All children were of low socioeconomic status and had IQs in the range of 70 to 85.

o Children had to have a parent home during the day.

o In 40 years, no other study has replicated the results.

• Carolina Abecedarian Project:

o Studied a small group of economically disadvantaged black children.

o Children entered the program at an average 4 months of age.

o Provided educational day care eight hours a day, five days a week.

o Provided free medical care, dietary supplements and social service help for families.

o Was full-time intervention from birth through age five.

There is clear evidence supporting preschool for at risk student populations. But the programs cited by universal preschool advocates are much more expansive … and expensive … than what is being proposed in Virginia. And the results of programs limited to extremely at-risk children cannot be realistically extrapolated over a general population with expectation of the same return.

Therefore, the Virginia programs won’t “Pay for Themselves,” nor would the “business case” pass muster in a freshman business course.

How much would Universal Preschool Cost?

It is especially important to examine the cost of quality preschool services in light of Governor Kaine’s contention that expanding taxpayer-funded preschool to all children in Virginia will cost $300 million a year. This contention appears to be based on an assumed cost of $5,000 per child. Yet the Start Strong report notes a cost of $7,280 per child for full-time licensed center child care for four-year-olds – a figure that would increase the price tag of Governor Kaine’s suggestion by at least $100 million, exclusive of added facilities demands.

Furthermore, “quality preschool” of the sort that seems to be envisioned by the Governor Kaine will likely be substantially more expensive than suggested. A report by the National Institute for Early Education Research notes that Arkansas has achieved at least nine of ten “quality benchmarks.” There, the state covers 60 percent ($4,836) of the per-child cost ($7,769). Alabama, which meets all 10 benchmarks, cites a cost of nearly $5,900 per student. North Carolina also meets all 10 benchmarks, and requires a local match but the NIEER study does not specify the amount.

Given the fact that Virginia’s current preschool program costs are $5,375 per student with only seven of 10 benchmarks met, the operating cost of “quality universal preschool” in Virginia is likely to total more than $425 million per year, assuming 70 percent of eligible students (an estimate used in other states) use the program. This does not include capital costs for additional classroom space at public schools.

Dr. Lynch’s study assumes a cost of $847 million per year. Lynch assumed a cost of $6,000 per student, 20 percent higher than the Governor’s estimate. But his estimate also assumes a participation rate of 93 percent for four-year-olds and 86 percent for three-year-olds. This far exceeds participation rates in any voluntary preschool program, and it is likely that his cost estimates are more significantly on the high side than Governor Kaine’s are on the low side.

Lynch’s analysis concludes it will take nearly a quarter-century – 24 years – for a universal program to pay for itself in budget benefits alone. He concludes it will take 11 years to start paying for itself in societal benefits (reduced crime costs, increased earnings of participating children and adults, etc.).

The local match component of any universal preschool program should necessarily be included in any cost of preschool. Costs will be sustained not only by the state “bucket” of funds, but also by localities which will be required to raise additional revenue from increased property taxes.

What is ‘High Quality Early Education?’”

Advocates for Universal Preschool say they want “High Quality Early Education. It is important to define what is meant by “High Quality Early Education.”

The National Institute for Early Education Research (NIEER) has developed 10 benchmarks – their “Quality Standards Checklist” – in considering the quality of preschool programs.

This Checklist was created by NIEER to provide a framework for evaluating the quality of state preschool policies, standards that NIEER feels “set the minimum criteria needed to ensure effective prekindergarten programs, especially when serving disadvantaged children.”

In other words, when advocates talk about “High Quality Early Education,” they’re talking about –

• Comprehensive Early Learning Standards;

• All preschool teachers have a Bachelor of Arts degree;

• All preschool teachers have specialized training in pre-kindergarten;

• All preschool assistant teachers who are beginning their career path to become teachers rather than permanent assistants have a Child Development Associate (CDA) certificate or its equivalent;

• At least 15 hours per year of in-service training for instructional staff

• Maximum class size less than or equal to 20 children;

• Staff-child ratio of 1:10 or better;

• Required screening/referral and support services (e.g. vision, hearing, health, and at least one support service such as parent education);

• At least one meal served; and

• State monitoring through site visits and data collection.

The result of such requirements would be a) to set the requirements so high that many private providers would be unable to offer preschool, thus building a system of government preschool only programs, and b) to raise the cost far above the amount per child estimated by Governor Kaine for his program.

“What Do Studies Show About Pre-K Programs for Middle Class Children?”

Dozens of studies demonstrate that the impact of “Universal Pre-K” on middle class students makes little difference in the academic performance of these students – and may, in fact, have a detrimental impact on social behavior.

• Georgia’s pre-school program has served more than 300,000 children at a cost of $1.15 billion. A 2003 report by Georgia State University researchers tracked students for five years, finding that any test scores from preschool “are not sustained in later years.”

• A November 2005 study from Stanford University and the University of California in Berkeley looked at 14,000 kindergartners. They discovered that preschool hinders social development and created poor social behavior, including bullying, aggression, and a lack of classroom participation.

• Another November 2005 study from the National Institute of Child Health and Human Development found that those behavior problems were still evident in third graders who had spent more, rather than less, time in preschool centers.

• A 2005 RAND Corporation study “found that children participating in preschools not targeted to disadvantaged children were no better off in terms of high school or college completion, earnings, or criminal justice system involvement than those not going to any preschool.”

• Children’s Hospital and Boston College published a July 2005 study finding that suburban children enrolled in a high-quality preschool program did no better than other suburban kids who did not enroll in such programs.

• A February 2006 University of California - Santa Barbara study found that any advantages from preschool in kindergarten performance had faded away by third grade.

• A February 2006 C.D. Howe Institute study considered 33,000 children in Quebec’s universal preschool program between 1994 and 2002. Their conclusion: “For almost every measure, we find that the increased use of childcare was associated with a decrease in their well-being relative to other children. For example, reported fighting and aggressive behavior increased substantially.”

• A study published in the March-April issue of the journal Child Development concluded that children who spend large amounts of time in child-care centers exhibit more minor behavior problems, such as aggression and disobedience, than other children, at least through sixth grade. Children spending large amounts of time in other venues, such as nanny care or family child-care homes, weren’t affected. However, children experiencing high-quality child care in any venue also had better vocabulary skills through fifth grade.

Why is Universal Preschool on the Agenda, as opposed to Targeted Preschool?

Perhaps the real reason why Governor Kaine wants his taxpayer-financed preschool proposal to be universal was exposed by Virginia Secretary of Education Tom Morris – and it has nothing to do with educating children.

“Public programs for just at-risk students don’t have the broader constituency of support as one that includes all children,” Secretary Morris told a Charlottesville public forum.

In other words, it’s all about the politics: The more you expand a program, the more support it will generate – but the more it will cost everyone else.

The National Institute for Early Education Research notes that more than 78 percent of four-year-olds from families making $100,000 a year are already in preschool. Under Governor Kaine’s concept, the cost of preschool for the wealthy will now shift to the rest of the state’s taxpayers, creating a huge new entitlement program that is certain to drive future tax increases.

Studies clearly show that quality preschool helps at risk students, and programs that help those children prepare for public school should be refined and improved. But the studies don’t show the same effect for upper income children.

Governor Kaine should be focused on investing scarce budget dollars on at-risk children, where they will provide a real return – not using those dollars to build political support for a pet project.

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