YRI S&P 500 Earnings Forecast - Yardeni Research

YRI S&P 500 Earnings Forecast

Yardeni Research, Inc.

April 3, 2023

Dr. Ed Yardeni

516-972-7683 eyardeni@

Joe Abbott

732-497-5306 jabbott@

Please visit our sites at blog.

thinking outside the box

Table 1: S&P 500 Earnings YRI vs. Consensus Forecasts (4/3/2023)

Page 1 / April 3, 2023 / YRI S&P 500 EYaarrdneingi sRFesoeraerccahst

Level

YOY %

Analysts' ConsensuYsardeni Research, Inc.

Level

YOY %



2009

60.80

-7.3

60.80

-7.3

2010

85.32

40.3

85.32

40.3

2011

97.82

14.7

97.82

14.7

2012

103.80

6.1

103.80

6.1

2013

109.68

5.7

109.68

5.7

2014

117.86

7.5

117.86

7.5

2015

117.46

-0.3

117.46

-0.3

2016

118.04 a

0.5

118.04 a

0.5

2017

131.98 a

11.8

131.98 a

11.8

2018

161.93 a

22.7

161.93 a

22.7

2019

162.97 a

0.6

162.97 a

0.6

2020

139.76 a

-14.2

139.76 a

-14.2

2021

208.53 a

49.2

208.53 a

49.2

2022 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4

218.09 a 54.83 a 57.95 a 56.05 a 53.16 e

4.6 11.6

9.9 4.0 -1.6

218.09 a 54.83 a 57.95 a 56.05 a 53.16 a

4.6 11.6

9.9 4.0 -1.6

2023 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4

225.00 e 53.00 e 55.00 e 58.00 e 59.00 e

3.2 -3.3 -5.1 3.5 11.0

220.45 e 50.71 e 54.24 e 57.02 e 58.52 e

1.1 -7.5 -6.4 1.7 10.1

2024

250.00 e

11.1

247.57 e

12.3

e=estimate. * Historical earnings and growth rates are frozen when the reporting periods are complete. Annual EPS is calculated

independently of quarterly EPS, and may not equal quarterly sum due to estimate coverage and index constituent changes.

Source: Yardeni Research, Inc. and I/B/E/S data by Refinitiv.

Table 2: S&P 500 YRI Forecasts (11/28/2022)

Y/Y Revenue Growth (%)

Revenue

Page 2 / April 3, 2023 / YRI S&P 500 Earnings Forecast

2009

-12.9

908.40 a

2010

6.0

962.70 a

2011

9.4

1052.83 a

2012

3.8

1092.38 a

2013

2.2

1116.81 a

2014

4.2

1163.31 a

2015

-3.3

1124.39 a

2016

2.2

1149.18 a

2017

7.2

1231.57 a

2018

9.0

1343.01 a

2019

5.4

1415.20 a

2020

-3.9

1359.41 a

2021

15.4

1568.40 a

2022

11.6

1750.00 e

Q1

13.6

413.73 a

Q2

12.2

431.39 a

Q3

11.6

440.73 e

Q4

4.6

442.50 e

2023

4.3

1825.00 e

Q1

3.3

435.00 e

Q2

0.3

445.00 e

Q3

1.6

470.00 e

Q4

7.3

475.00 e

2024

2.7

1875.00 e

e=estimate. Source: Yardeni Research, Inc. and I/B/E/S data by Refinitiv.

E/R (Margin %) 6.7 a 8.9 a 9.3 a 9.5 a 9.8 a

10.1 a 10.4 a 10.3 a 10.7 a 12.1 a 11.5 a 10.3 a 13.3 a 12.3 e 13.3 a 13.4 e 12.7 e 12.3 e 12.3 e 12.2 e 12.4 e 12.3 e 12.4 e 13.3 e

Earnings

Yardeni Research, Inc.

60.80 a

85.32 a 97.82 a 103.80 a 109.68 a 117.86 a 117.46 a 118.04 a 131.98 a 161.93 a 162.97 a 139.76 a 208.49 a 215.00 e 54.83 a 57.95 a 55.99 e 54.50 e 225.00 e 53.00 e 55.00 e 58.00 e 59.00 e 250.00 e

Figure 1.

2100

2000 S&P 500 REVENUES & YRI FORECASTS (dollars per share, ratio scale)

1900

1800

1700

YRI Forecasts

2022 (1750.00)

1600

2023 (1825.00)

2024 (1875.00)

1500

1400

Consensus Forecasts

2022 (1754.51)

2023 (1801.20)

1300

2024 (1888.17)

1200

24 Q4

22 23

2100 2000 1900 1800 1700 1600 1500 1400

1300

1200

1100

1100

S&P Actual RPS

1000

RPS* (1749.00)

1000



Latest data thru 03/16/23

900

900

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024

* Four-quarter trailing sum of revenues per share. Source: I/B/E/S data by Refinitiv.

Figure 2.

300

300

275 S&P 500 OPERATING EARNINGS PER SHARE & YRI FORECASTS

24

275

250

(dollars per share, ratio scale)

250

225

YRI Forecasts

200

2022 (215.00)

2023 (225.00)

175

2024 (250.00)

23 22

Q4

225

200

175

150

150

Consensus Forecasts

2022 (219.48)

125

2023 (220.45)

125

2024 (247.57)

100

100

I/B/E/S Actual EPS

EPS* (222.07)

75

75



Latest data thru 03/30/23

50

50

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024

* Four-quarter trailing sum of operating earnings per share. Source: I/B/E/S data by Refinitiv.

Page 3 / April 3, 2023 / YRI S&P 500 Earnings Forecast

Yardeni Research, Inc.



Figure 3.

15

15

S&P 500 OPERATING PROFIT MARGIN & YRI FORECASTS

24

14

(percent)

23

14

YRI Forecasts

13

2022 (12.3)

2023 (12.3)

22

13 Q4

12

2024 (13.3)

12

11

Consensus Forecasts

11

2022 (NA)

2023 (12.1)

10

2024 (12.9)

10

9

9

8

8

Actual Margin

7

Profit Margin* (12.7)

7

6

6



Latest data thru 03/16/23

5

5

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024

* Four-quarter trailing operating profit margin. Source: I/B/E/S data by Refinitiv and Standard & Poor's.

Figure 4.

340

S&P 500 OPERATING EARNINGS PER SHARE: FORWARD & ACTUAL

290

(I/B/E/S data by Refinitiv)

(dollars per share, ratio scale)

240

190

YRI Forward

Earnings Forecast

2022 (225.00)

2023 (250.00)

140

2024 (270.00)

340 290 240 Q43/30 190

140

90

90

Earnings Per Share

Forward* (227.23) Operating** (4Q sum) (222.07)



40

40

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024

* Time-weighted average of consensus operating earnings estimates for current and next year. Monthly through March 1994, then weekly. ** From S&P until Q4-1993, then from I/B/E/S data by Refinitiv.

Source: I/B/E/S data by Refinitiv.

Page 4 / April 3, 2023 / YRI S&P 500 Earnings Forecast

Yardeni Research, Inc.



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