Chapter 13 Charts: Predicting Corporate Earnings
Predicting the Markets: Chapter 13 Charts:
Predicting Corporate Earnings
Yardeni Research, Inc.
November 18, 2022
Dr. Edward Yardeni
Chief Investment Strategist
Mali Quintana
Senior Economist info@
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Table Of Contents Table Of Contents
Predicting Corporate Earnings
1-24
November 18, 2022 / Chapter 13 Charts: Predicting Corporate Earnings
Yardeni Research, Inc.
Predicting Corporate Earnings
Figure 1.
339700
350 330 310
S&P 500 OPERATING EARNINGS PER SHARE (analysts' consensus estimates, I/B/E/S data in dollars, monthly, ratio scale)
290
270
250
230 210
Analysts' Estimates
190
Annual*
170
12-month forward**
20 21 19
150
Actual 4Q sum***
18
130 110
09 08
15 16 17 13 14 12
90
07 06
11 10
70
99 00 01 02 03 04 05
50
98 97
96 95
390 350
310
270
Oct
230
190
150
110
70
30
30
95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
* "Squiggles" span 25 months from February to February. ** Time-weighted average of analysts' consensus estimates for S&P 500 operating earnings per share for current year and next year. *** Actual 4Q sum from I/B/E/S.
Note: Shaded areas are recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research. Source: I/B/E/S data by Refinitiv.
Figure 2.
45
45
S&P 500 OPERATING EARNINGS PER SHARE
40
(analysts' consensus estimates, I/B/E/S data in dollars, monthly, ratio scale)
40
95
35
Analysts' Estimates
30
Annual*
94
35
91
92
93
90
30
12-month forward**
25
Actual 4Q sum***
89
25
88
85
86
87
82 83
20
20
84
81
15
80
15
10
10
1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995
* "Squiggles" span 25 months from February to February. ** Time-weighted average of analysts' consensus estimates for S&P 500 operating earnings per share for current year and next year. *** Actual 4Q sum from S&P until Q4-1993, then from I/B/E/S.
Note: Shaded areas are recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research. Source: I/B/E/S data by Refinitiv.
Page 1 / November 18, 2022 / Chapter 13 Charts: Predicting Corporate Earnings
Yardeni Research, Inc.
Predicting Corporate Earnings
Figure 3.
270
250
S&P 500 OPERATING EARNINGS PER SHARE
230
(analysts' consensus estimates, I/B/E/S data in dollars, weekly, ratio scale)
210
190
20
21
170
19
150
18
130
15
16
17
14
13
110
12
11 90
10
70
Analysts' Estimates Annual* 52-week forward** Actual 4Q sum***
09
270 250 Q131/21300 210 190 170 150 130
110
90
70
50 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
* "Squiggles" span 25 months from February to February. ** Time-weighted average of analysts' consensus estimates for S&P 500 operating earnings per share for current year and next year. *** Actual 4Q sum from I/B/E/S.
Note: Shaded areas are recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research. Source: I/B/E/S data by Refinitiv.
Figure 4.
120
S&P 500 OPERATING EARNINGS PER SHARE
110
(analysts' consensus estimates, I/B/E/S data in dollars, weekly, ratio scale)
08
100
90
Analysts' Estimates
Annual*
52-week forward**
80
Actual 4Q sum***
07 06
50
2021 2022
120 110 100 90 80
70
05
70
01
02
03
04
60
00
60
50
99
50
98
40 1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
40
2007
2008
* "Squiggles" span 25 months from February to February. ** Time-weighted average of analysts' consensus estimates for S&P 500 operating earnings per share for current year and next year. *** Actual 4Q sum from I/B/E/S.
Note: Shaded areas are recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research. Source: I/B/E/S data by Refinitiv.
Page 2 / November 18, 2022 / Chapter 13 Charts: Predicting Corporate Earnings
Yardeni Research, Inc.
Predicting Corporate Earnings
Figure 5.
40
40
S&P 500 OPERATING EARNINGS: ANALYSTS' CONSENSUS ESTIMATES: 1980-2020*
30
(I/B/E/S data)
30
(25-month percent change)
20
20
9.4 8.7 2.4 8.8 8.3 8.2 5.0 2.4 10.1
10
10
0
0
-8.8 -32.3 -45.6
-6.9 -7.8
-5.8 -11.3 -13.0
-4.0 -5.9 -25.4
-4.8 -5.2 -16.0 -11.3 -5.3 -14.9
-6.3 -20.9 -35.3 -26.2
-15.1 -5.4
-10
-10
-11.0 -38.9
-30.9 -11.6
-31.7 -26.4 -19.3
-20
-20
-30
-30
-33.2 -29.9
-40
-40
-50
-50
-60
-60
80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24
* Percent change in analysts' consensus estimates for S&P 500 operating earnings per share for each year shown from initial forecast to actual, e.g., from February 1979 to February 1981 for calendar year 1980. Source: I/B/E/S data by Refinitiv.
Figure 6.
30
30
S&P 500 NET EARNINGS REVISIONS*
(percent, three-month basis)
20
20
10
10
0
0
-10
-10
Oct
-20
-20
-30
-30
-40
-40
-50
-50
85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24
* Three-month moving average of the number of forward earnings estimates up less number of estimates down, expressed as a percentage of the total number of forward earnings estimates. Note: Shaded areas are recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research. Source: I/B/E/S data by Refinitiv.
Page 3 / November 18, 2022 / Chapter 13 Charts: Predicting Corporate Earnings
Yardeni Research, Inc.
Predicting Corporate Earnings
Figure 7.
280
250 220
S&P 500 OPERATING PER SHARE (I/B/E/S data in dollars, ratio scale)
190
160
130
100
Earnings Per Share
Operating** (4Q sum) (222.8)
70
Forward* (229.9)
40
280 250 Q113/10 220 190 160 130 100
70
40
10
10
86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24
* Time-weighted average of consensus estimates for current year and next year. Monthly through March 1994, then weekly. ** Actual 4Q sum from S&P until Q4-1993, then from I/B/E/S.
Note: Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research. Source: I/B/E/S data by Refinitiv.
Figure 8.
280
250 S&P 500 OPERATING PER SHARE: FORWARD & ACTUAL
220
(I/B/E/S data in dollars, ratio scale)
190
160
130
Earnings Per Share
100
Operating Earnings**
(4Q sum)
70
Forward Earnings*
(pushed 52-weeks ahead)
280
250
Q3 11/9
220
190
160
130
100
70
40
40
10
10
86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26
* Time-weighted average of consensus estimates for current year and next year. Monthly through March 1994, then weekly. ** Actual 4Q sum from S&P until Q4-1993, then from I/B/E/S.
Note: Shaded areas are recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research. Source: I/B/E/S data by Refinitiv.
Page 4 / November 18, 2022 / Chapter 13 Charts: Predicting Corporate Earnings
Yardeni Research, Inc.
Predicting Corporate Earnings
Figure 9.
5750
5500 S&P 500 STOCK PRICE INDEX, FORWARD EARNINGS & VALUATION 5250 (monthly)
5000
x24
5750
5500
x22
5250
5000
4750
4750
4500
4500
4250
S&P 500
4000
Index
3750
Blue Angels
3500
Implied Index*
3250
x18
4250
4000
Oct
3750
3500
x14
3250
3000
3000
2750
2750
2500 2250
2500
x10
2250
2000
2000
1750
1750
1500
1500
1250
1250
1000
1000
750
750
500
500
250
250
0
0
79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26
* Implied price index calculated using forward earnings times forward P/Es. Source: Standard & Poor's and I/B/E/S data by Refinitiv.
Figure 10.
***** Chart Not Available ***** Task: PTMBLOGSP500WFE_BB Invalid calculation element [PRC]
10-05-2022 - 03:24:45
Page 5 / November 18, 2022 / Chapter 13 Charts: Predicting Corporate Earnings
Yardeni Research, Inc.
Predicting Corporate Earnings
Figure 11.
72.05
60.05
48.05 S&P 500 REPORTED EARNINGS PER SHARE*
36.05
(dollars, quarterly, ratio scale)
24.05
12.05
72.05 60.05 Q3 48.05 36.05 24.05
12.05
.05
.05
35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 00 05 10 15 20 25
* Q4-2008 not shown because of large negative value. Note: Shaded areas are recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research. Source: Standard & Poor's.
Figure 12.
65
60
S&P 500 OPERATING & REPORTED EARNINGS PER SHARE (S&P data)
55
(dollars, quarterly)
50
65
60
55
Q3
50
45
45
40
40
35
S&P 500 Earnings
35
Operating (S&P data)
30
Reported (S&P data)
30
25
25
20
20
15
15
10
10
5
5
0
0
-5
-5
-10
-10
-15
-15
-20
-20
-25
-25
88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24
Note: Shaded areas are recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research. Source: Standard & Poor's.
Page 6 / November 18, 2022 / Chapter 13 Charts: Predicting Corporate Earnings
Yardeni Research, Inc.
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