Quiz 5 - Marquette University High School



AMDG

Name Friday, January 20, 2012

Ms. Kresovic, AP Statistics

Cooperative Assessment 6.1

1. A bag contains 10 tags numbered 0 to 9. You reach in and, without looking, pick 3 tags. (This is drawing without replacement.) Use simulation methods to determine the probability that the sum of the 3 numbers is at least 18. Document the simulation steps: correspondence; repetition; stopping rule; estimate probability.

Use the random digits table beginning at row 128, which is reproduced below. Carry out 40 repetitions, and report the proportion of times the sum is 18 or more.

128 15689 14227 06565 14374 13352 49367 81982 87209

129 36759 58984 68288 22913 18638 54303 00795 08727

130 69051 64817 87174 09517 84534 06489 87201 97245

131 05007 16632 81194 14873 04197 85576 45195 96565

Zack claims that if 4 unrelated, randomly selected people were assembled, the chance that at least 2 of them would have the same birth month is greater than 50-50. This claim sounds far-fetched. You decide to simulate the process and repeat it many times.

2. What are your assumptions?

3. Carry out a simulation to see if Zack is right. Use your calculator, but first enter 18(rand

to “seed” the calculator. State how you assign digits to represent outcomes. What calculator command could you use to simulate 4 birth months?

4. Perform 30 repetitions and report the results. Use tally marks and fill in the table below.

|Duplicates | |

|No duplicates | |

5. What is your estimate of the probability of duplicate birth months?

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