SERVICE CONTRACT & CONDITIONS OF GRANT
SAWEP 2
Component 2: Resource-mapping and wind corridor development for policy-makers
Wind Atlas for South Africa Phase 3 (WASA 3) (including DEA SEA Phase 2 support)
Institutionalisation of WASA
Project Document
May 2017
Draft
Contents
1. SUMMARY 3
2. BACKGROUND 6
2.1 WASA Team 7
2.1.1 South African National Energy Development Institute (SANEDI) 7
2.1.2 University of Cape Town, Climate Systems Analysis Group UCT (CSAG) 7
2.1.3 Council for Scientific and Industrial Research (CSIR) 9
2.1.4 South African Weather Service (SAWS) 11
2.1.5 Technical University of Denmark (DTU) 12
2.2 Other key stakeholders 13
2.2.1 Dept. of Energy (DME) 13
2.2.2 Department of Environment Affairs (DEA) 13
2.2.3 Department of Science and Technology (DST) 13
2.2.4 Northern Cape Provincial Government 13
2.2.5 South African Wind Energy Association (SAWEA) 13
2.2.6 Private Developers 14
2.2.7 Global Environment Facility (GEF) 14
2.2.8 United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) 14
3. METHODOLOGY 14
3.1 Scope of Work 16
3.2 WASA 3 Work plan 31
3.3 Deliverables 32
3.3.1 WP31 Mesoscale Modelling (UCT, DTU) 32
3.3.2 WP32 Wind Measurements (CSIR) 32
3.3.3 WP33 Microscale Modelling (CSIR, DTU) 32
3.3.4 WP34 Application (CSIR, DTU) 32
3.3.5 WP35 Extreme Wind Atlas (SAWS, DTU) 33
3.3.6 WP36 Management, Coordination, Documentation and Dissemination 33
3.4 Budget (include 29% hardware (masts, instruments) tender) 34
3.5 Partner Payment schedules 37
4 PROJECT ORGANISATION 42
4.1 Project Steering Committee (PSC) 42
4.2 Project Implementation Unit (PIU) 42
4.3 Working Groups (WGs) 42
4.4 Project Coordinator 42
5. REPORTING AND FINANCIAL MANAGEMENT 43
SUMMARY
The Wind Atlas for South Africa Phase 3 (WASA 3) project is an activity of the South Africa Wind Energy Project Phase 2 (SAWEP 2): Component 2: Resource-mapping and wind corridor development support for policy-makers: Output 2.1: Verified Wind Atlas extended to the Northern Cape province.
Objective
The objective of WASA 3 is to expand the Wind Atlas for South Africa (WASA) to the remaining areas of the Northern Cape province that could not be incuded in phase 1 (WASA 1) and phase 2 (WASA 2) due to budgetary constraints, thereby enabling access to verified and accurate wind maps, data, and tools in support of the Renewable Energy Independent Power Producer Procurement Program (RE IPPPP), Dept of Environmental Affairs Strategic Environmental Assessment (SEA), public, private sector and wind industry by large.
WASA team
The WASA team comprises of the South African National Energy Development Institute (SANEDI), the Council Scientific Industrial Research (CSIR), the South African Weather Service (SAWS), the University of Cape Town (UCT) Climate Systems Analysis Group (GSAC) and Risø (now Technical University of Denmark (DTU) Wind Energy) forming the WASA team.
Methodology and Scope of Work
The project Scope of Work falls into six key Work Packages (WP) following a proven “recipe” tried, tested and fine tuned by the WASA team during the implementation of WASA 1 and currently with the implementation of WASA 2. This approach will ensure that WASA 3 will be compatible and match the accuracy and consistency with WASA 1 and WASA 2 results for cost efficient implementation in the shortest time possible and that the WASA 3 project does not duplicate any work done in the WASA 1 and WASA 2 projects.
|Work package (WP) |Main team |
|WP31 Mesoscale modelling (Numerical Wind Atlas & database) |UCT (CSAG), DTU |
|WP32 Wind Measurements (wind data for verification) |CSIR, DTU |
|WP33 Microscale modelling (Observational Wind Atlas) |CSIR, DTU |
|WP34 Application (High Resolution Wind Resource map, time series data) |CSIR, DTU |
|WP35 Extreme Wind Atlas |SAWS, DTU |
|WP36 Mangement, Coordination, Documentation and Dissemination |SANEDI |
Budget
The WASA 3 budget R22,212,531 (excl VAT) include 29% hardware (masts, instruments) R6,428,070 to be tendered out
Key Deliverables
- 4 high quality wind measurement stations operating and providing at least two years of measurement data for calibration of meso-modelling and verification of the Numerical Wind Atlas
- A database system for wind data collection and on-line Web display.
- Interim and final Verified Wind Atlas and database for the Northern Cape and rest of South Africa
- Interim and final High Resolution Wind Resource map with time series data for the Northern Cape and rest of South Africa
- Fast track High Resolution Wind Resource map in support of DEA SEA Phase 2 projecct covering all of South Africa
- Observational Wind Atlas for the Northern Cape
- Extreme Wind Atlas for the Northern Cape
- Updated Wind Atlas and Microscale Modelling Guides, training course
- Final report including results of investigation of long term seasonal and inter-annual variation of wind and methods for long-term corrections and identification of climate change impact(s)
Project organisation, coordination & management
SANEDI will be the contracting party with the CSIR, UCT (CSAG), SAWS and DTU Wind Energy and undertaking the activities pertaining to project management, coordination, dissemination and documentation. The WASA team shall submit to SANEDI quarterly progress report and bi-annual report with financial status for review and approval by the PSC. The existing WASA 2 Project Steering Committee (PSC) and Project Implementation Unit (PIU) will be utilized.
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Financial Management
SAWEP 2 payments shall follow standard UNDP conditions for payments of any advances and expenses incurred. The funding amount is fixed in US Dollar. SANEDI by December of each year will submit a work plan and budget for approval by the PSC and to be included in the next year SAWEP 2 Annual Work Plan. The WASA team invoice UNDP once a year by December as per the milestones achieved and submit invoices to SANEDI. SANEDI review the progress and invoices and submit to the PSC for approval after which SANEDI forward the invoices to UNDP for payment. UNDP will reclaim any VAT payments.
Conclusion
The institutionalisation of WASA through the WASA team is to instensify in WASA 3. Thereby establishing WASA as a national asset for wind resourse and related research, development and application. Having free access to the data and tools applied in WASA 1 and WASA 2, the WASA team will be able to provide a fast track high resolution wind resource map in support of DEA SEA Phase 2 project covering all of South Africa. Building on the results of WASA 1 and WASA 2, the WASA team, through WASA 3, will not only model the Northern Cape, but all the remaining territories of South Africa with a Wind Atlas and Resource map, so that the WASA 3 modelling domain will be every part of South Africa not covered by WASA 1 or WASA 2. The WASA 3 project will make available a complete set of data for all South Africa and it will report and assessment the quality of the wind atlas outputs in all provinces based on and made possible through the combined work and knowledge of the WASA 1, WASA 2 and WASA 3. WASA 3, combining with WASA 1 and WASA 2 data, besides calibration of meso-modelling and verification of the Numerical Wind Atlas, will also provide South Africa with a valuable, long term wind data bank that is invaluable for investigating and prediction of the seasonal and potential climate change impacts on SA’s wind resource with subsequent implications for policy, planning and the wind industry growth in South Africa. Further improvements of the modelling, verification of the wind time series data important for power system modelling and forecasting and better understanding and quantification of the uncertainties can also be expected in WASA 3.
BACKGROUND
The need for a comprehensive Wind Atlas for South Africa to enable planning of large-scale exploitation of wind power in South Africa, including dedicated wind resource assessment and siting tools for planning purposes were identified as a capacity development and research cooperation project that was supported by the South Africa Wind Energy Program (SAWEP 2007 – 2010) R8 mill with Danish International Development Agency (DANIDA) co-funding DKK9.9 mill. SANERI (now South African National Energy Development Institute SANEDI) was responsible for project management and coordination. SANEDI together with the WASA Implementation partners: Council Scientific Industrial Research (CSIR), South African Weather Service (SAWS), University of Cape Town (UCT) Climate Systems Analysis Group (GSAC), Risø (now Technical University of Denmark (DTU) Wind Energy) comprising the WASA team. WASA Phase 1 was completed in 2014 and covers the Western Cape and parts of the Northern Cape and Eastern Cape provinces. Through the success of WASA 1 further support DKK12 mill was obtained from the Government of Denmark with the WASA team extending WASA to cover the remaining areas of the Eastern Cape province, KwaZulu-Natal and Free State provinces (WASA 2, 2014 to 2018).
“Verified Wind Atlas extended to the Northern Cape province” is one of the outputs 2.1 under the South Africa Wind Energy Project Phase 2 (SAWEP 2) Component 2: “Resource mapping and wind corridor development support for policy makers” and is an extension of WASA to the remaining areas of the Northern Cape (WASA 3) that could not be included in WASA 1 due to budgetary constraints. The result will be a WASA, comprising of WASA 1, WASA 2 and WASA 3, that will span 5 provinces covering 75% of South Africa, including the windiest provinces that will facilitate future decisions on introducing wind energy in national electricity supply with a tested blueprint for state of the art wind resource assessment and application, nationally, regionally and globally.
Furthermore the WASA team, through WASA 3, will model all the remaining territories of South Africa, so that the WASA 3 modelling domain will be every part of South Africa not covered by WASA 1 or WASA 2. The modelling in WASA 3 will be both mesoscale modelling creating the Numerical Wind Atlas (NWA) and the microscale modelling using the NWA as input to create a High-Resolution Wind Resource Map. Validation of the modelling will only be through measurements of wind measurements masts established in WASA 1 and WASA 2 including Northern Cape Province WASA 3 masts. However the WASA 3 project will make available a complete set of data for all South Africa, and it will report and assessment the quality of the wind atlas outputs in all provinces based on and made possible through the combined work and knowledge of the WASA 1, WASA 2 and WASA 3.
WASA 3, as in WASA 1 and WASA 2, will in addition to wind resource mapping also provide wind climate and database information in the public domain for application in both the private sector and the public sector and Eskom for wind power planning and projects.
WASA 1 and 2 implementation structures such as the WASA 2 Project Steering Committee (PSC), WASA 2 Project Implementation Unit (PIU) and Working Groups (WG) will continue to be used for WASA 3 as the WASA team composition is the same with the result time and cost savings through close coordination and sharing of resources between WASA 2 and WASA 3.
The WASA team will continue, building on WASA 1, to input on the Dept. of Environmental Affairs (DEA) Strategic Environmental Assessment (SEA) Phase 2, on the basis of the Weather Research Forecast (WRF) mesoscale modelling developed in WASA 1. Thereby the WASA team has access to Frogfoot (DTU proprietary microscale modelling automation software) for the generation in the shortest time possible of relevant maps and data needed by the DEA SEA Phase 2. This proposal incorporate support of DEA SEA Phase 2 with and interim and fast track high resolution wind resource map becoming available 2 to 3 months after commencement of WASA 3.
The facilities and hardware that was funded and implemented through WASA 1 and WASA 2 such as RODEO (wind data acquisition, management and reporting system) at CSIR Stellenbosch, online graphs and data download websites hosted by CSIR, mesoscale modelling space and time at the Centre for High Performance Computing (CHPC) facility at the CSIR and Frogfoot (DTU proprietary microscale modelling automation software) will again be available for WASA 3 which not only reduce the cost, with time savings, but also ensures consistency in the generation, quality and application of the WASA 1, 2 and 3 results. WASA 2 wind measurement data will be used to benchmark WASA 3 wind measurements.
A minimum of 2 years wind measurements with a maximum one year for tender, contracting, installation and commissioning of 4 WASA 3 wind measurement masts with instruments is the target.
2.1 WASA Team
The core project team consists of five members; each with their distinctive and important role that were shaped and fine tuned during the implementation of WASA 1 and 2.
1 South African National Energy Development Institute (SANEDI)
The South African National Energy Development Institute (SANEDI) is a Schedule 3A state owned entity that was established as a successor to the previously created South African National Energy Research Institute (SANERI) and the National Energy Efficiency Agency (NEEA). The main function of SANEDI is to direct, monitor and conduct applied energy research and development, demonstration and deployment as well to undertake specific measures to promote the uptake of Green Energy and Energy Efficiency in South Africa. SANEDI managed and coordinated WASA Phase 1 and currently WASA Phase 2 and to continue in WASA Phase 3, thereby ensuring the quality, accuracy, compatibility and consistency of WASA 1, 2 and 3 results and application. SANEDI, as a state owned entity, is ideally situated to interpret the wishes of DoE/Government and to respond, inform with appropriate information such as the WASA results that are needed for and influencing energy (e.g. Integrated Resource Plan (IRP), Integrated Energy Plan (IEP) and environmental (e.g. DEA SEA) planning. SANEDI is a member and chair the WASA 2 PIU and member of the WASA 2 PSC.
2.1.2 University of Cape Town, Climate Systems Analysis Group UCT (CSAG)
CSAG is a dynamic group of multi-disciplinary scientists with research projects linked to all aspects of the climate system. CSAG is hosted in the Environmental and Geographical Science department at the University of Cape Town. CSAG is currently funded for a number of research projects which cover a range of activities, but generally fall into three primary areas; Global Climate Model (GCM) applications, Global Climate Change, and South African climate processes.
UCT (CSAG) & WASA
UCT (CSAG) and the wind energy department at the Technical University of Denmark (DTU) partnered in the first phase of the Wind Atlas for South Africa project (WASA 1) to fulfil the mesoscale modelling requirements of the project. During WASA 1 two wind atlases were developed. The first wind atlas, which covered the Western Cape and parts of the Northern and Eastern Cape, was developed using a “classical” statistical-dynamical approach. While this process was on going, a new research methodology was being developed to produce a fully dynamical methodology. This methodology was executed at the end of Phase 1 to produce the first ever fully numerical wind atlas in the world and demonstrated greater wind energy resource and better comparison with measurements in the study domain than the older methodology. The fully dynamical methodology is computationally very expensive as it involves running a regional climate model at a very high resolution over a very large spatial area. All the computational expense as well as the large associated financial expense was borne by DTU in terms of computational infrastructure, CPU time, disk space and other HPC costs.
The research partnership with DTU has capacitated researchers and post-graduate students at UCT to understand wind energy resource mapping techniques and the rigorous approaches need in performing such an assessment. Data from the simulations and daily forecast data were brought from Denmark to UCT and used by post-graduate students in their studies. One Ph.D., one M.Sc. and two B.Sc. (Hons) degrees were associated with WASA Phase 1, two of whom were co-supervised by DTU researchers. One paper about WASA Phase 1 was first-authored by Dr Christopher Lennard from UCT and published in an international journal. The mesoscale data from WASA1 continue to be used for research by post-graduate students at UCT and other universities. Additionally, these data are also used in undergraduate teaching to demonstrate downscaling, wind energy research methods and the South African wind climate. Results from WASA 1 and associated studies have been presented by the UCT team in a number of seminars locally and internationally.
Importantly, these mesoscale data are open source and available to anyone to use and CSAG/UCT distributes the data as requested. E.g. data provided to the Energy Resource Centre at UCT for a study on wind power resource assessments; during 2017/2018 these data will be used in a study of False Bay, Cape Town concerning wave action impacts on sensitive shorelines. Additionally, the WASA project also produces a daily forecast product and the eThekwini Municipality would like to use the wind forecasts for coastal disaster risk planning. The usefulness of the mesoscale modelling component of the WASA project is not limited to the production of the Atlas but through the UCT/DTU collaboration extends to academic and operational activities.
The fully dynamical methodology developed in Phase 1 forms the basis for the mesoscale modelling in WASA 2. It is envisaged that a component of the downscaling will be run at CSAG/UCT to provide a contribution to the mesoscale modelling through the capacity developed in WASA 1. The extension of the coverage of the atlas means that a very high-resolution dataset will become available for most of the country and the data will be housed at CSAG. This will facilitate research into a number of potential projects that would include atmospheric process understanding, model sensitivity studies, crop and hydrology modelling and pattern scaling experiments. There are currently six post-graduate students working in the context of WASA during Phase 2 including one Ph.D., two M.Sc. and three B.Sc. (Hons) degrees.
Furthermore, during Phase 2 a new methodology is being researched to produce a more accurate mesoscale modelling product that will lead to the development of an even more accurate wind resource assessment. This ensemble-based dynamical downscaling methodology involves running multiple simulations over the region and not just one single simulation. Although this increases the computational costs of the mesoscale modelling, preliminary results indicate extra computational cost is worth it as errors from these experimental simulations compared to observations are even smaller than those in the single dynamical simulation method. The research component of this methodology is being led by DTU in collaboration with CSAG and the experimental simulations are being run at DTU.
WASA Institutionalisation at UCT (CSAG)
In WASA Phase 3, the mesoscale modelling will likely assume the ensemble-based dynamical methodology developed in WASA 2. Although this methodology is computationally very expensive, the continued collaboration between DTU and UCT will ensure that the best available wind energy resource assessment for South Africa will be produced and that the intellectual capacity for wind resource assessment in South Africa increases. The bulk of the mesoscale modelling, which form the backbone on which the wind atlas is developed, will continue taking place at DTU as a result of the computational expense but a component of the modelling will be performed at UCT to demonstrate that skill transfer has occurred between the two institutions and that capacity does exist within South Africa to perform such a task. This is made possible with the mesoscale modelling system at DTU that has been replicated at UCT and at the Centre for High Performance Computing (CHPC) facility at the CSIR and reflected in the UCT and DTU budgets. All mesoscale data developed in the project will be housed at UCT and will be made publically available.
Further capacity development will take place through research into the methodology, the mesoscale simulations, application, interactions between UCT and DTU researchers and student supervision. It is envisaged the project will facilitate one Ph.D. (or M.Sc.) and two B.Sc. (Hons) degrees in the field of wind resource research. Focus areas such as understanding the atmospheric processes that drive the wind resource across the country and the seasonal to decadal prediction of the wind resource. Furthermore, academic collaborations between UCT and other South African universities and research institutions (like the CSIR) will contribute to national competencies in wind energy resource assessment. The continued excellent collaboration between UCT and DTU is critical to ensure these beneficial outcomes are realised.
UCT is a member of the WASA 2 PIU and work contribute to the mesoscale modeling work package WP31.
2.1.3 Council for Scientific and Industrial Research (CSIR)
The CSIR is one of the leading scientific and technology research, development and implementation organisations in Africa. Constituted by an Act of Parliament in 1945 as a science council, the CSIR undertakes directed and multidisciplinary research, technological innovation as well as industrial and scientific development to improve the quality of life of the country’s people. The CSIR’s shareholder is the South African Parliament, held in proxy by the Minister of Science and Technology.
CSIR & WASA
Of the 6 Work Packages making up the WASA project, the CSIR has worked specifically on Work Package 2 (setting up the met masts and taking measurements) and Work Package 3 and 4 (microscale wind modelling and application of the data for resource assessment).
In WASA 1, DTU assisted with Work Package 2 by sending wind measurement specialists to train CSIR technicians in the correct installation of instrumentation and quality control of the data. Work Packages 3 and 4 required automation of the Wind Atlas Analysis and Application Program (WAsP) in close collaboration with the DTU. This involved the application of the data to create a wind atlas and high resolution wind resource map as well as inform and assist the Government, NGOs, developers and the general public with its understanding.
In WASA 2, Work Package 2 is being carried out by CSIR personnel, institutionalising world class wind measurements and data control within the CSIR. Furthermore, the CSIR continued with Work Packages 3 and 4 as well as the infrastructure maintenance, data quality control and growing fledgling numerical wind modelling capability with assistance from the DTU.
The DTU is world renowned in this space and significant skills transfer has started in WASA 1 and 2 and will be continued in WASA 3.
WASA Institutionalisation at CSIR
As a result of direct involvement in the WASA 1 and 2 projects, the CSIR is growing a collaborative network and developing synergistic momentum towards institutionalising the measured and generated wind data. In particular, the WASA 1 and 2 data has been intrinsic to the completion of an extensive Wind / Solar Aggregation study in collaboration with Fraunhofer Institute for Wind Energy System Technology (IWES) which has been made available in the public domain. This aggregation data is now becoming widely used and the CSIR is currently sharing it with, amongst others, the Energy Research Centre (ERC) at the University of Cape Town (UCT) and the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) in the United States. It is currently being used in the development of the Integrated Resource Plan (IRP) by the South African Department of Energy (DOE) and Eskom.
Stemming from this network growth, the WASA 1 and 2 data will be used by the CSIR and a collaborative team working on “Energy Meteorology” studies and short term wind energy forecasting capacity building with the DTU, UCT and SAWS under the ‘SAfricast’ project.
Similarly, in association with Fraunhofer IWES the CSIR will use the WASA 1 and 2 data to build a wind energy forecasting model for use by the system operator within Eskom [with support from the Department of Science and Technology (DST), German Aerospace Centre (DLR), Eskom, the South African Bureau of Standards (SABS) and the South African National Energy Development Institute (SANEDI)].
CSIR Future Focus Areas based in WASA 3
In WASA 3, the CSIR will be focused on extending the domain to the northern Free State and the Northern Cape provinces in continued collaboration with the WASA partners. At the same time, the CSIR will continue with maintenance of the existing infrastructure and data quality control as well taking over Work Package 3 (Micro-scale Modelling) and Work Package 4 (Application for Wind Resource Assessment) with the interim assistance of the DTU remotely and via learning visits in August this 2017.
Alongside the aforementioned initiatives, the CSIR has identified the following future areas of advancement that will make extensive use of the WASA data and infrastructure:
1. Research into power system reserves provided by variable wind generation resources;
2. Establishing short term wind energy forecasting capacity;
3. Macroscale, mesoscale and microscale climate modelling;
4. Applying the WASA data in environmental modelling and climate change studies;
5. Sharing the WASA data with SAWS for the purpose of weather forecasting or model improvement;
6. Verification of WASA data by correlation with CSIR LIDAR equipment data;
7. Resource assessment with verification by CSIR LIDAR instruments;
8. Fitting certain wind masts with a variety of sensors to study the behaviour of sensors during high turbulence or extreme wind conditions;
9. Application within energy-water nexus modelling;
All of these initiatives and future focus areas will provide a conducive incubation environment for the creation of MSc and PhD candidate projects and their supervision, with the eventual aim of incorporating the students into the CSIR Energy Centre team. Alternatively, the CSIR will assist with finding suitable employment with WASA partners.
This applies not only to post graduate students but also extends further to maintenance technician graduates from the newly formed South African Renewable Energy Technology Centre (SARETEC). The CSIR will assist with sourcing employment stemming from the WASA 3 focus areas for such graduates in partnership with the South African Wind Energy Association (SAWEA) and their close relationships with existing Independent Power Producers (IPPs).
Involvement in WASA 1 and 2 clearly allowed the CSIR to start building a national capability around “Energy Meteorology”. This momentum will be leveraged and capitalised on in WASA 3. Thus, the WASA project is a national asset for South Africa.
The CSIR is a member of the WASA 2 PIU and is responsible for the Wind Measurements work package WASA 32 and work also contribute to the WASA Microscale modelling WP33 and Application WP34 work packages.
4 South African Weather Service (SAWS)
The South African Weather Service (SAWS) is the national weather service of South Africa. SAWS is then also custodian of most climate data in South Africa. Specifically, with the high resolution spatial and temporal observational data, SAWS play an active part in the validation of mesoscale modelling results with measured data.
SAWS & WASA
SAWS and DTU partnered in the Wind Atlas for South Africa (WASA) Phase 1 and 2 projects to develop an extreme wind atlas for South Africa for the designated Phase 1 and 2 domains. At the initiation of Phase 1, SAWS was already in the process of updating the extreme wind statistics for South Africa relevant to the Built Environment, from wind speed measurements forthcoming from the SAWS observation network. The partnership with DTU enabled SAWS, with the outputs of the mesoscale modelling part of the WASA project, to develop, with the application of the WAsP Engineering software, developed by DTU, a fully-fledged extreme wind atlas relevant to the wind energy sector at the required high resolution required by the industry. These results, in turn, also enabled SAWS to improve the accuracy of extreme wind estimations over those regions in South Africa where measurements were scarce or non-existent. The estimation of extreme wind statistics of modelled data spearheaded by DTU required extensive research into appropriate statistical methodologies and applications, which is reflected in the range of research publications and conference presentations which culminated from the Phase 1 partnership.
With the initiation of Phase 2 the methodologies were already established from the research in Phase 1. However, the application thereof revealed the uncertainties inherent in the estimation of the high temporal and spatial resolution statistics from lower time-resolution model data, which is particularly relevant over the Phase 2 domain (where thunderstorms are dominant from a strong wind mechanism point of view, and topographical features along the escarpment which has a bearing on the accuracy of the estimations). It is therefore envisaged, and necessary, that these investigations and research continue into Phase 3 of the WASA project.
WASA institutionalisation at SAWS
SAWS as leader of the WASA Work Package on extreme winds has, during Phases 1 and 2, demonstrated the institutionalisation of the extreme wind statistics aspect of the WASA project: At the latter stage of Phase 1 and beginning of Phase 2 the further refinement of the extreme wind statistics, as well as broadened statistical research, enabled SAWS to, in addition to the work for the Built Environment, developed a strong wind profile of South Africa at the local municipal scale for the disaster management sector via a joint project with the National Disaster Management Centre (NDMC). Following on the dissemination of these results, SAWS has become the leader nationally in providing local clients with information related to extreme wind statistics for planning purposes in the built environment, as well as the renewable energy sector. The extreme wind results from WASA and the South African Wind Loading Code are freely available, while SAWS is also able to do additional client-specific analyses on a commercial basis. The continued partnership of SAWS and DTU in Phase 3 will complete the modelling research over the whole South African domain, providing increased confidence in the robustness of different estimation methodologies, and provide SAWS with the complete high-resolution statistics for further refinement of information provided to relevant sectors which require statistics on extreme winds.
The Extreme Wind work package WASA 3 budget (WP35) reflect the proposed roles of SAWS and DTU in WASA Phase 3, and also taking into account the research-oriented nature of the extreme wind atlas development. During Phase 2 it became evident that the modelling of extreme wind gusts over the interior, where thunderstorms produce the majority of exceptionally strong wind gusts, were still deemed ineffective after verification of the results. Further research with DTU to effectively model these gusts are necessary. Therefore, sufficient time for DTU is essential, and consequently there is a minimal change in the DTU Extreme Wind work package for Phase 3 compared to Phase 2. From SAWS side, the budget shows a small increase, to inter alia accommodate for the extensive verification and adjustment of the model outputs, which was not anticipated during the budgeting stage of Phase 2.
SAWS is a member of the WASA 2 PIU and work contribute to the WASA 35 Extreme wind work package.
5 Technical University of Denmark (DTU)
DTU has been active for decades in wind energy assessment area, and has developed the WAsP software, a microscale modelling tool for wind farm energy calculations, and the KAMM/WAsP/WRF method, for the calculation of wind resources over large areas.
The KAMM/WAsP/WRF system output is compatible with WAsP, which allows mesoscale results to be applied all the way down to the microscale for wind farm energy calculations.
The WRF- based WASA Phase 1 wind atlas is the first wind atlas study where the generalisation was carried out on the WRF-model output and it provided significant improvements to previous methods. The usage of the WRF mesoscale model continues and is being further refined in WASA 2 and WASA 3.
WASA 1 is the first project that used the DTU wind resource mapping tool, Frogfoot, successfully, doing microscale modelling at a large scale, when it created the large-scale high resolution WASA Phase 1 resource maps in time to be used by the DEA SEA Phase 1. The application of Frogfoot will continue in WASA 2 and WASA 3 and thereby also make it possible to be applied to assist DEA SEA Phase 2.
In addition to the use of mesoscale simulations for wind resources atlases, the WASA 1 time series obtained from the mesoscale simulations are now being used to power system studies of renewable energy aggregation and wind power variability and reserves requirements. WASA data have been supplied for this work, carried out in close collaboration with South African authorities. A different type of validation needs to be carried out for this type of data, which will be done for the first time in WASA 3. Finally, it is worth noticing that WASA 3 will enable expanding the area coverage to all South Africa by combining WASA 1, WASA 2 and WASA 3 – the method to do it will be developed and decided by the WASA Team based on DTU experience in developing large-scale wind atlases.
DTU has worked with meteorological sensors and measurements for almost half a century. DTU has designed, developed and manufactured several meteorological sensors and data acquisition systems; noticeably the Risø cup anemometer, which has set the de facto standard, and today is considered one of a few industry-standard cup anemometers for wind resource assessment and wind turbine power performance testing and verification. Because of its long history within wind power activities, DTU is well acquainted with the special requirements for accurate and reliable wind measurements posed by the wind industry. DTU is a member of the WASA 2 PIU and contribute to all, lesser extend WP32 wind measurements work package that has mostly been institutionalised in the CSIR.
DTU “co-financing”
The DTU Wind Energy participation is in accordance with the conditions applying for WASA 1 and WASA 2 with updating of the fee rates to be in accordance with present standard rates and overhead for Danish national research programmes.
The DTU Wind Energy contribution has been budgeted using these rules. The average DTU Wind Energy salary rate per hour applied is DKK 470 for the staffing and expected project duration of 3 years starting in 2017. DTU Wind Energy’s normal overhead rate is 100%. Budgets made for this WASA 3 contract include 44% overhead on fees, which leaves 56% of normal overhead on fees to be covered by DTU Wind Energy’s own budget, from the basic funding for co-financing of research projects.
2.2 Other key stakeholders
Other key stakeholders include the national and regional environmental and energy authorities, South African Wind Energy Association (SAWEA), private developers and funders of WASA.
1 Dept. of Energy (DME)
The Department of Energy (DoE) is the national department responsible for energy policy and strategy development, including the IRP and IEP. The DoE is the Executing Agency for SAWEP Phase 1 and 2, member and chairing the SAWEP 2 PSC and WASA 2 PSC.
2 Department of Environment Affairs (DEA)
The Department of Environmental Affairs DEA is the national department responsible for environmental, sustainable development and strategy development. DEAT is the lead agency for directing and formulating the national climate change response programme and has the responsibility of ensuring that South Africa’s obligations in terms of the UNFCCC and the IPCC are fulfilled. DEA is implementing the Strategic Environmental Assessment SEA which is making use of WASA results. DEA is the GEF Focal point for South Africa and member of the SAWEP 2 PSC and WASA 2 PSC.
3 Department of Science and Technology (DST)
The Department of Science and Technology (DST) is the national department responsible for science and technology policy, strategy development with a strong emphasis on human capital development. The DST strives toward introducing measures that put science and technology to work to make an impact on growth and development in a sustainable manner in areas that matter to all the people of South Africa. DST is a member of the SAWEP 2 PSC and WASA 2 PSC.
4 Northern Cape Provincial Government
The provincial departments responsible for environmental and development planning are in various stages in the development of provincial energy and sustainable development strategies and actions plans. These plans acknowledge the potential wind energy can play in addressing energy and sustainable development issues.
5 South African Wind Energy Association (SAWEA)
The South African Wind Energy Association is an industry led association in support of wind energy industry development in South Africa. SAWEA has a particular role in identifying wind energy development issues, lobby effective support and dissemination of information to its members and the general public.
6 Private Developers
South Africa is experiencing an economic growth while its electricity generation and distribution capacity are ageing and are under pressure. It is acknowledged the role that the private sector can play in alleviating the electricity capacity need in the short and long term. Wind energy has a short lead time and can strengthen distribution networks. This requires accurate resource information that can be used for feasibility studies and motivation of bankable projects.
7 Global Environment Facility (GEF)
The Global Environment Facility (GEF) which was established following the 1992 Rio Earth Summit, is a catalyst for action on the environment — and much more. Through its strategic investments, the GEF works with partners to tackle the planet’s biggest environmental issues. GEF funding also helps reduce poverty, strengthen governance and achieve greater equality between women and men. GEF is grant funding USD3.5 mill with the local UNDP Country office supporting the implementation of SAWEP Phase 2.
8 United Nations Development Programme (UNDP)
UNDP is the UN's global development network, an organization advocating for change and connecting countries to knowledge, experience and resources to help people build a better life. UNDP is on the ground in some 170 countries, working with them on their own solutions to global and national development challenges (climate change etc.) UNDP-implemented projects and programmes are primarily managed by the organization's extensive network of over 130 country offices, with the central UNDP GEF environment team providing technical guidance and support. The local UNDP Country Office provides procurement and financial management support to SAWEP 2.
METHODOLOGY
This section describes in detail the Scope of Work, Work Plan, Deliverables, Outputs and Budget breakdown that will implement the WASA 3 project as well as the interpretation of the SAWEP 2 Project Document, Component 2: Resource-mapping and wind corridor development support for policy-makers.
First and foremost it should be noticed that the WASA 3 project has been designed so as to avoid any duplication of work done in the WASA 1 and WASA 2 projects. Wherever a task is described in similar ways as in WASA 1 and WASA 2, it is because the work has to be carried out for the WASA3 domain as well.
The interpretation of the Component 2: Resource-mapping and wind corridor development support for policy-makers of the SAWEP 2 Project Document assumes the following:
|Comment No 1. | Department of Environmental Affairs Strategic Environmental Assessment Phase 2 support |
| | |
| |The WASA team will run a new and updated WRF mesoscale run with 3 km resolution and validate for all South |
| |Africa with updated parameters for this purpose which should become available by November 2019. However |
| |previous WRF runs from WASA 1 and WASA 2 (not validated) and lower 5 km resolution that was applied for power|
| |system studies and covering all of South Africa, with only the generalisation needed to create LIB-files |
| |(files containing the sector-wise frequency of occurrence of the wind (the wind rose) as well as the wind |
| |speed frequency distributions) still to be done, are available, and the simulation outputs of those will be |
| |applied as a fast track solution with results for the DEA SEA Phase 2 envisaged 2-3 months after commencement|
| |of WASA 3. |
|Comment No 3. |WRF/WAsP dynamical downscaling established |
| | |
| |The Numerical Wind Atlas for the Northern Cape will be based on WRF mesoscale modelling that was customised |
| |for wind resource assessment during the implementation of WASA 1 and being refined with increasing validation|
| |through WASA 2 and WASA 3. |
|Comment No 4. |Continued metering from existing measuring masts established under WASA 1 and WASA 2 with WASA 3. |
| | |
| |The overlap, take it that WASA 3 measurements will not start later than beginning of 2018, with the |
| |completion of the WASA 2 measurements by end of 2018, provides for a one year benchmarking of WASA 3 |
| |measurements. It is the hope of the WASA Team that funding can be identified so that the continue |
| |measurements of the 9 WASA 1 stations, in operation since Sept 2010 and WASA 2 stations may be extended |
| |further – at least for the full 2-year measurement period of the WASA 3 stations. This will provide South |
| |Africa with a valuable, long term, uninterrupted, wind data bank invaluable for investigating and prediction |
| |of the seasonal and potential climate change impacts on SA’s wind resource with subsequent implications for |
| |policy, planning and growth of the wind industry in South Africa. |
|Comment No 5. |Wind Power Forecasting |
| | |
| |The WASA 3 project, as with WASA 1 and WASA 2, does not provide forecasting as such, but the WASA Team will |
| |offer Eskom collaboration in order to facilitate information of relevance for Eskom to assess and make use of|
| |the opportunities for applying the WASA 1, 2 and 3 results for considerations how to obtain day-ahead and |
| |in-hour forecasts. |
| |Experimental seasonal and decadal prediction methods will also be tested at the University of Cape Town |
| |through post-graduate student activities. |
|Comment No. 6 |WASA 3 Data integrity and contingency |
| | |
| |WASA 1 and 2 experience has shown that theft of equipment also poses a risk for the integrity of the data |
| |collected. Risk mitigation measures will be assessed and recommended by the WASA Team based on the |
| |experience from WASA 1 and 2. Realistically it will not be possible to eliminate risks, but the WASA Team |
| |will be committed to develop and recommend solutions, including extending insurances of the WASA 3 masts and |
| |instruments by the CSIR. A contingency budget is provided for in the total budget. The balance of the |
| |Contingency budget at the end of the project will be utilised to fund some of the activities indicated |
| |pending funding. |
|Comment No. 7 |Input into the Global Solar and Wind Atlas within the Clean Energy Ministerial as coordinated by the |
| |International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA) and DTU Global Wind Atlas project |
| | |
| |The WASA team, although not budgeted for, will continue to provide relevant input to the IRENA Global Solar |
| |and Wind Atlas as well as the World Bank ESMAP Renewable Energy Mapping so that they can make use of WASA |
| |information and data available in the public domain. |
1 Scope of Work
The project Scope of Work falls into six key Work Packages (WP) following a proven “recipe” tried, tested and fine tuned by the WASA team during the implementation of WASA 1 and currently with the implementation of WASA 2. This approach will ensure that WASA 3 will be compatible and match the accuracy and consistency with WASA 1 and WASA 2 results for cost efficient implementation in the shortest time possible and that the WASA3 project does not duplicate any work done in the WASA1 and WASA2 projects.
Below the six key Work Packages (WP) of the project are outlined in detail.
|WP Name and No. |WP31 – Mesoscale modelling |
|Main Project Team |UCT (CSAG) and DTU Wind Energy |
|Objective |The main objective of the collaboration between UCT (CSAG) and DTU Wind Energy as part of the WASA 3 project is|
| |to develop the capacity to calculate improved spatial wind resource data sets through the combination of |
| |modelling techniques and measurements. The improvements will be achieved through: |
| | |
| |The suitability of the spatial datasets for direct application in wind farm projects, so that the resulting |
| |data is of greatest use and relevance to wind farm developers |
| |The careful consideration of uncertainty throughout all steps in the wind resource calculations, including a |
| |final estimate of uncertainty on the spatial wind resource datasets |
| |The adaptation of the methods within the modelling and analysis to the specific terrain and climate types found|
| |in South Africa. |
| | |
| |Time/cost savings is possible in this work package through the WRF model already set up, configured and fine |
| |tuned during WASA 1 and 2 with access to high performance computing at DTU and UCT with in house IT support. |
| | |
| |The first central result of this collaboration will be wind resource data sets and maps for the remainder of |
| |the Northern Cape utilizing WRF-based methods developed during WASA 1 and WASA 2. |
|Scope of Work |Desktop assistance with initial site selection |
| |Wind classes |
| |Terrain elevation |
| |Terrain roughness |
| |Model configuration |
| |WRF/WAsP statistical/dynamical downscaling |
| |WRF – dynamical downscaling; sensitivity studies and ensemble based approach |
| |Further development of dynamical wind atlas methodology to produce best possible wind atlas for the WASA 3 |
| |domain. |
| |Methods for satellite data input to mesoscale models |
| |Post-processing of mesoscale outputs – coupling to microscale model |
| |Assessment of quality of simulated wind resources in areas not covered by WASA measurement masts |
| |Validation of mesoscale results vs. measured data |
| |Update Numerical Wind Atlas for WASA Phase 1 and 2 domain if found necessary (if necessary) |
| |Creation of final verified wind atlas and database with wind time series data for Northern Cape province and |
| |verified |
| |Update wind atlas database and Tadpole interface, time series data |
| |Investigate long term seasonal and inter-annual variation of wind and methods for long-term corrections and |
| |identification of climate change impact |
| |Continue capacity building, MSc and PhD supervision, including exchange of PhD’s |
| |Progress reporting for PIU |
| |Compile final report |
|Work Plan |Background |
| |Both UCT (CSAG) and DTU Wind Energy have experience in the use and application of regional/mesoscale models, |
| |microscale models and observations. The UCT (CSAG) team has extensive knowledge of climate processes in South |
| |Africa. |
| |DTU (formerly Risø) has been active for decades in the area of wind resource mapping, and has developed the |
| |WAsP software, a microscale modelling tool for wind farm energy calculations, and the KAMM/WAsP method, for the|
| |calculation of wind resources over large areas. The WRF/WAsP method for creating A Numerical Wind Atlas was |
| |perfected and successfully applied during WASA 1 and WASA 2. |
| |Through DTU the project will have continue access to Frogfoot, a DTU proprietary microscale modelling |
| |automation software tool. Frogfoot was successfully applied in WASA 1 and enabled the generation of the WASA 1|
| |Large Scale High Resolution Wind Resource map in less than a week which otherwise would have taken months to do|
| |manually. It was through the application of Frogfoot that the WASA team was able to assist within 2 months the|
| |DEA SEA Phase 1. |
| |UCT (CSAG) has been engaged in mesoscale/regional climate modelling activities for various downscaling |
| |applications, including regional model verification, high-resolution wind studies and wind energy resource |
| |assessment. UCT (CSAG) is a key institution for the development of human capacity in wind energy assessment |
| |through the supervision of M.Sc. and PhD students on WASA related projects. |
| |During WASA 3 UCT and DTU will further collaborate in the generation of a new unified wind atlas that covers |
| |WASA1, WASA 2 and WASA 3 areas with continue focus on developing methods for combining the output of an |
| |ensemble of mesoscale simulations. |
| |Dynamical downscaling for wind resource mapping |
| |UCT (CSAG) and DTU will continue in the development of a new methodology for combining the output from an |
| |ensemble of mesoscale downscaling simulations to produce a unified wind resource atlas that is adapted to the |
| |various climate conditions and focusing on the following topics: |
| |Setup and sensitivity studies: |
| |Determination of optimal parameters and parameterizations (in particular surface parameters, boundary layer and|
| |convection parameterizations) for wind energy resource assessment (from shorter duration case studies and |
| |extended runs on coarse grid) for each geographical area and possibly time of the year. Previous knowledge from|
| |WASA 1 and WASA 2 will be used to narrow down the possible model configurations. |
| |Determination of optimal model grid configurations and resolutions for each geographical area |
| |c. Determination of the optimal model configuration and post-processing for the generation of wind time |
| |series. Validation will be done to make sure the time series include the necessary variability at scales |
| |important for grid integration and renewable energy aggregation studies. This is introduced in WASA 3 as a new |
| |attempt for which the need has just recently been described. |
| | |
| |Mesoscale/local process studies. Additional studies of various modelling issues (impact of stratus deck on the|
| |development of local circulations, etc.) |
| | |
| |Climate downscaling. Perform a multi-nested climate downscaling simulation (with grid spacing ranging from 45 |
| |to 2 km) for southern Africa. The downscaling strategy will use the standard Advanced Research WRF (Weather |
| |Research & Forecasting) model and the various reanalysis (CFSR and/or ERA Interim) for initial/boundary |
| |conditions and large-scale grid nudging. The large-scale domain will include all southern Africa and |
| |surrounding oceans and up to four nesting levels. The innermost nesting level will contain high-resolution (1-2|
| |km) domains for areas surrounding Lesotho where the local topography is very complex. The precise size, |
| |position, and resolution will be determined later from results of sensitivity experiments and the process |
| |studies, the available computational resources and the time required to complete of the project |
| | |
| |Coupling to microscale. Utilize the methods developed during WASA 1 and 2 to couple the mesoscale and |
| |microscale modelling. The methodology is also used to validate the results from the numerical wind atlas |
| |against the observational wind atlas. |
| | |
| |Long-term, seasonal and inter-annual variation of wind and climate change impact. Following on the initial |
| |methods developed during WASA 1 and 2, additional development of methods for long-term corrections and |
| |identification of climate change impact will be developed during WASA 3. |
| | |
| |Throughout this collaboration between UCT (CSAG) with DTU, UCT (CSAG) will be a full partner in the results of |
| |the dynamical downscaling research and stand to benefit directly from the findings that come from them. |
| |Quality assessment |
| |Throughout this project, much attention will be given to the quality of the wind resource estimation. As much |
| |as possible uniformity in quality is the objective. Therefore, the specific nature of the difference test areas|
| |needs to be addressed. For example, different terrain types and climate types will quite possibly require a |
| |different treatment. |
| |Methods for estimating the likely uncertainty of the wind resource data will be developed. One possibility of |
| |how to do this is to employ the sensitivity studies mentioned in the previous section as part of the input to |
| |the uncertainty calculations. This aspect of the collaboration is an innovative and much desired part of a wind|
| |mapping procedure. |
|Inputs |Equipment (local cluster at DTU Wind Energy and UCT (CSAG); use of high performance cluster at CHPC) |
| |Data from project WP32 |
| |Terrain and vegetation data; satellite-derived SSTs |
| |Reanalysis data; land surface soil moisture data |
| |Regional wind climates (WAsP *.lib files) |
| |Predicted wind resource for selected terrain site coordinates |
| |Maps and database for the WASA 1, 2 and 3 domains |
| |Uncertainties |
| |Parameters |
|Outputs |Updated Wind Atlas (3 km) for WASA 1, 2 (if found necessary) and 3 domains |
| |Interim, verified (1 year of measurements), WASA 3 Numerical Wind Atlas (3 km) and database with time series |
| |data covering all of SA |
| |Final WASA 3 verified Numerical Wind Atlas (3 km) and database with time series data (e.g. database) report, |
| |web site, poster, fact sheets, etc.) covering all of SA. |
| |Research results for ensemble dynamical downscaling for wind resource mapping for remaining areas of South |
| |Africa. |
| |Research results from investigations of seasonal, interannual and decadal variability and prediction as well as|
| |climate change impacts. |
| |PIU Progress reports |
| |Final report including results of investigation of long term seasonal and inter-annual variation of wind and |
| |climate change impact/prediction |
|Indicators & means of |Research reports and training packages approved |
|verification |Maps and database completed and made available in public domain |
| |Final project report published and made available in public domain |
| |Project completion and evaluation report completed |
| |Financial audit report without qualifications received |
|Prerequisites and context|Data accessible within budgeted means |
| |All UCT(CSAG) and DTU resources made available to the extent included in these TORs |
| |All findings to be put in public domain. |
|Related WASA activities |This project is depending upon project WP32, WP34b and related to WP33-WP35. |
|WP Name and No. |WP32 – Measurements |
|Main Project Team |CSIR |
|Objective |CSIR to provide high quality wind measurements and providing input for WP31, WP33 and WP34 (mesoscale, |
| |microscale modelling and application work packages) |
| |Time/cost savings is possible in this work package with the RODEO (Data Management System) that is installed |
| |and operational at CSIR since WASA 1 -– needs just a slight addition to accommodate WASA 3 with CSIR |
| |capacitated during WASA 1 and implementing this work package since WASA 2 to the relevant IEC and Measnet |
| |standards. Data Quality and Assurance procedures have been transferred from DTU and being applied by CSIR |
| |(Stellenbosch). |
|Scope of Work |Site selection report, environmental go ahead |
| |Design of measuring system |
| |Design of data acquisitions by GSM or satellite by CSIR Proposed Siting analyses of 4 new masts |
| |Ground siting of 4 masts |
| |Permits and Authorizations and Agreements |
| |Tender specifications (masts supply, installation and maintenance as well as sensors and data collection system|
| |for instrumentation) |
| |Tendering, evaluation and contracting (CSIR) |
| |Wind masts – erection, Certificates of Conformance and maintenance (by selected contractor managed by CSIR), |
| |masts insurance |
| |Instrumentation installation (CSIR) including updating data acquisition and communication systems |
| |Operation, security and data collection for 2 years |
| |Update RODEO data management system and wasa.csir.co.za websites |
| |Data QA |
| |WASA 1 post, re calibration, refurbishment and WASA 2 3 years maintenance and service (only if WASA 1 and WASA |
| |2 extended to 2019) |
| |Post calibration of WASA1,2,3 anemometers 2019 |
| |Re calibration and refurbishment WASA 1,2,3 anemometers 2019 (pending funding) |
| |Regular maintenance and service of the masts and instruments |
| |WASA 3 and continued metering, data processing and online web display from existing measurement masts |
| |established under WASA 1 and WASA 2 (pending funding) |
| |Demobilisation tender (if necessary) |
| |Progress reporting for PIU |
| |Compile final report |
|Work Plan |Siting analyses – a cooperation effort between WP31, WP32 WP33 and WP34 (DTU, CSAG & CSIR) especially regarding|
| |setting up of the criteria. |
| |CSIR will coordinate with and provide the applicable Northern Cape Provincial dept responsible for |
| |environmental impact assessment (EIA) required documentation informing on the 4 masts sites selected that would|
| |not require and will not trigger any other EIA listed criteria for a basic EIA. |
| |CSIR will negotiate and sign agreements with the sites owners for free land use for erecting of the 4 masts |
| |with instruments and free access to the site for the two years of measurements. |
| |All 4 sites shall try to be located in areas with GSM mobile phone coverage, but manual retrieval of data using|
| |flash cards will be possible |
| |The mast height is 60m and of lattice type guy wired design, designed for climbing by trained technicians. |
| |CSIR will put out tenders for the supply, construction and erection works for the 4 meteorological masts, |
| |including foundation, fencing, access, etc. |
| |CSIR will procure the needed mounting booms and clamps for the equipment. |
| |CSIR will procure through a tender process, the instruments for 4 wind masts based on quality, compatibility, |
| |and interchangeability, common spare parts with WASA 1 and 2. |
| |CSIR will arrange for WASA 1 post re calibration, refurbishment and WASA 2 3 years maintenance and service |
| |(only if WASA 1 and WASA 2 extended to 2019) |
| |CSIR will arrange for post-calibration of anemometers 2019 (WASA 1, WASA 2 and WASA 3) |
| |CSIR will arrange, pending funding, for re calibration and refurbishment of WASA 1,2,3 anemometers 2019 |
| |CSIR will take ownership and all liabilities for masts and equipment procured. CSIR will ensure the masts and |
| |equipment |
| |13 CSIR will investigate risk mitigation options for each site and make recommendations to the Steering |
| |Committee. |
| |GSM network coverage on all the selected sites is assumed. |
| |CSIR will procure GSM SIM cards with data transfer for all stations and this includes all costs related to the |
| |local data transfer in SA |
| |The existing RODEO database system at CSIR will be updated (in cooperation between CSIR and DTU), together with|
| |the wasa.csir.co.za websites. CSIR will handle the received data and will be responsible for performing quality|
| |control (operation checked every working day/quality checked weekly) to ensure an uninterrupted high data |
| |quality from WASA 3 and WASA 1,2 (only if WASA 1 and WASA 2 extended to 2019) |
| |CSIR will undertake the necessary annual service and maintenance of the masts and instruments. |
| |CSIR will arrange for decommission of the masts if needed |
|Inputs |Database and web display software updated |
| |Infrastructure for met stations |
| |Statistics of available met data for boom orientations |
|Outputs |Site selection criteria and EIA evaluation report for Northern Cape Environmental authorities |
| |Masts and instruments tender specifications and signed agreements with service providers and land owners, masts|
| |insurance |
| |Establish 4 high quality wind measurement stations providing at least two years of measurement data for |
| |calibration of meso-modelling |
| |Post re calibration, refurbishment WASA 1 anemometers and WASA 2 3 years’ service and maintenance 2018 (pending|
| |funding) |
| |WASA 3 and ongoing metering, data processing and online web display from existing measurement masts established|
| |under WASA 1 and WASA 2 (pending funding). |
| |Post calibration of WASA 1,2 and 3 anemometers 2019 |
| |Re calibration and refurbishment WASA 1,2,3 anemometers 2019 (pending funding) |
| |A database system for wind data collection and on-line Web display. |
| |Report on measurements, including data Q and A and maintenance and service |
| |WASA 3 masts Demobilisation tender and support (if necessary) |
| |PIU Progress reports |
|Indicators & means of |Valid data for two full years is delivered |
|verification |Project completion and evaluation report completed |
|Prerequisites and context|Necessary approvals are obtained. |
| |All findings to be put in public domain. This includes databases resulting from the measurements that shall be |
| |made available to application both for private and public users, including Eskom. |
|Related WASA activities |This project is closely related to and depending upon projects WP31 WP33. It provides input for WP34 and WP35. |
|WP Name and No. |WP33 – Microscale Modelling |
|Main Project Team |CSIR and DTU |
|Objective |To calculate observational wind atlas data sets and predicted wind climates through the combination of |
| |microscale modelling techniques and state-of-the-art wind measurements. The improvements will be achieved |
| |through: |
| |The suitability of measured data sets for wind atlas analysis and application, so that the resulting data and |
| |procedures are of greatest use and relevance to wind farm developers and planners. |
| |The careful consideration of uncertainty throughout all steps of the wind atlas and wind resource calculations,|
| |including a final estimate of the uncertainty on the observed, regional and predicted wind resource estimates |
| |The adaptation of the methods within the modelling and analyses to the specific terrain and climate types found|
| |in South Africa building on the experience gained in WASA 1 and 2. |
| |The central result of this collaboration will be wind resource data sets and local maps for no less than 4 |
| |sites in the WASA 3 domain in South Africa. |
| |Time/cost savings is possible in this work package with the CSIR that was capacitated through WASA 1 and 2 in |
| |wind resource microscale modelling |
|Scope of Work |Creation of Observational Wind Atlas after 1st year and updated 2nd year of measurements for the selected |
| |measurement sites in WASA 3 with input regarding: |
| |Wind speed and direction distributions |
| |Terrain elevation |
| |Terrain roughness |
| |Sheltering obstacles |
| |Site description reports |
| |Progress reporting for PIU |
| |WAsP modelling |
| |Microscale results vs. measured data (verification of model performance) |
| |Introduction of WAsP CFD (if and where appropriate) |
|Work Plan |Background |
| | |
| |WASA1 has developed the state of the art expertise in micro scale modelling at CSIR through collaboration with |
| |DTU. |
| | |
| |WASA1 and 2 applied the industry standard software, WAsP, for the micro scale modelling and this will be used |
| |for WASA 3 as well. |
| | |
| |Observational wind atlas methodology. The methodology can be broken down into four key steps: |
| | |
| |Pre-processing; the construction of wind speed and direction distributions used to represent the observed |
| |meteorological conditions. Construction of the small-scale terrain descriptions of the terrain around the |
| |meteorological station: elevation map, roughness length map and specification of sheltering obstacles |
| |Microscale modelling; the calculation of the effects of the terrain descriptions on the wind climate observed |
| |at the meteorological station. The WAsP modelling is typically done with standard modelling parameters, but |
| |other parameter settings can be applied. In highly complex terrain the options for applying WAsP CFD will be |
| |considered. |
| |Post-processing; the analysis of the results of the microscale simulations in order to create wind atlas data |
| |sets for direct application with WAsP. Steps 2 and 3 are carried out in one process in the WAsP software |
| |Verification; the comparison of the microscale-derived wind speed and direction distributions with |
| |observation-based wind distributions. |
| |All four parts will be covered in detail in the collaboration between CSIR and DTU. |
| |Sensitivity studies. In the chosen test areas, trials of various different methods within steps 1-3 above will |
| |be carried out. This work will be undertaken by CSIR or DTU as appropriate. |
| |Thus, the sensitivity of the wind resource calculations to a single change in one of the methods in steps 1, 2 |
| |or 3 can be assessed. To elaborate on this point the following examples are given: |
| |Pre-processing; sensitivity of the microscale modelling to elevation and roughness length descriptions derived |
| |from different data sources, e.g. topographical maps, SRTM elevation data, satellite imagery, etc. |
| |Microscale modelling; sensitivity to physical parameterization schemes within the models, etc. WAsP parameter |
| |studies |
| |Post-processing; sensitivity to the standard heights and roughness classes used for establishing the regional |
| |wind climates, sensitivity to the terrain descriptions, etc. |
| |Verification; the sensitivity of the comparisons to climatological or topographical characteristics of the |
| |different sites, e.g. atmospheric stability or ruggedness index, distance to the reference mast, etc. |
| |Indeed, testing all possible combinations of these sensitivities would be a very big task. However, it will be |
| |possible to select a subset of combinations and still gain a tremendous amount of understanding of how |
| |uncertainties come about in the methodologies. |
| |CSIR and DTU will be full partners in the analyses and results of this work, and both stand to benefit directly|
| |from the findings that come from them. |
| |Quality assessment |
| |Throughout the project much attention will be given to the quality of the wind measurements and of the wind |
| |resource estimation. As much as possible uniformity in quality is the objective. Therefore the specific nature |
| |of the different test areas needs to be addressed. For example different terrain types and climate types will |
| |quite possibly require a different treatment. |
| |The methods for estimating the uncertainty of the wind resource developed in WASA1 and used in WASA 2 will also|
| |be applied in WASA3. |
|Inputs |WAsP software packages (necessary licences and upgrades) |
| |WAsP Engineering software packages (necessary licences and upgrades) |
| |Surfer/Global mapper software package (1) |
| |Regional wind climates (WAsP *.lib files) |
| |Predicted wind resource for selected terrain site coordinates |
| |Maps and database for WASA2 domain |
| |Uncertainties. |
|Outputs |WASA 3 Site description reports |
| |Observational Wind Atlas after 1st and updated 2nd year of measurements for the 4 sites in the WASA 3 domain |
| |Updated Observational Wind Atlas for the 14 sites in the WASA 1 and WASA 2 domain |
| |Updated WASA 1 and WASA 2 OWA |
| |Progress reporting for PIU |
|Indicators & means of |Maps and database for selected sites in the WASA 1 and 2 domains. Maps and database for selected sites in WASA|
|verification |3 domain |
| |Project completion and evaluation report completed |
| |Financial audit report without qualifications received |
|Prerequisites and context|Necessary data accessible. |
| |All findings to be put in public domain |
|Related WASA activities |This project is closely related to and depending upon projects WP31 and WP32. It provides input for WP34 a and |
| |b. |
|WP Name and No. |WP34 – Application |
|Main Project Team |CSIR and DTU |
|Objective |Dissemination of know-how in application of mesoscale and microscale modelling and wind measurement techniques |
| |for wind resource assessment |
| |Significant time/cost savings is possible in this work package having access to Frogfoot (DTU proprietary |
| |microscale modelling automation software) in the generation of the wind resource maps and thereby able to |
| |assist DEA in the shortest time possible with the SEA Phase 2. |
|Scope of Work |WASA 3 domain |
| |Introduction of WASA 3 and to solicit buy-in from the Northern Cape provinces (WASA 3 domain). |
| |Mid-term workshop (no earlier than 1.5 years of measured data) for invited stakeholders from the Northern Cape |
| |province etc. |
| |Develop/update tools - guidelines and training materials – for application of the WASA data |
| |Update course for trainers (DTU) |
| |Interim Microscale resource map (250 m) for Northern Cape Province (see WP34b) |
| |Micro-scale resource map for the WASA1, WASA 2 and WASA 3 domains. Output data in GIS-compatible formats as per|
| |WASA 1 –activity (see WP34b) |
| |WAsP, WAsP Eng capacity building |
| |Seasonal variation of wind resources at the mast locations |
| |Progress reporting for PIU |
| |Final Workshop/Seminar for invited stakeholders |
| |Compile final report |
| |All of South Africa (DEA SEA Phase 2 support) |
| |Compile WRF 5-km generalised wind climates for all of South Africa |
| |Prepare topographical descriptions for all of South Africa, less WASA 1 domain |
| |SRTM V3 100-m elevation grids |
| |GlobCover V2.3 300-m roughness grids |
| |Translation table(s) from land cover to roughness length |
| |Verify Frogfoot components and installations at DTU Wind Energy |
| |Set up Frogfoot installation and calculate wind resource maps |
| |Compile and distribute WASA wind atlas and wind resource map data and metadata and wind time series data |
| |covering all of South Africa (see WP31, WP34a) |
| |Compile report with ArcGIS ASC files |
|Inputs |Results from WP31, WP32 and WP33 |
| |Tools-software with guidelines and help |
| |Updated course materials |
| |Updated report on best practice |
| |Resource maps prepared for introduction as GIS layer. |
|Outputs | |
| |WASA 3 domain |
| |Interim and final microscale resource map (mean wind power, mean wind power density, terrain surface elevation |
| |and ruggedness Index) for WASA 3 and all of South Africa with output data in GIS-compatible formats as per WASA|
| |1 |
| |Updated time series wind data for WASA1, WASA 2, WASA 3 and all of SA |
| |One mid-term workshop for invited stakeholders. |
| |One end-term workshop/Seminar for invited stakeholders. |
| |Progress reporting for PIU |
| |Updated Wind Atlas and Microscale Modelling Guides, training course |
| |Final report |
| | |
| |All of South Africa (DEA SEA Phase support) |
| |Fast track interim high resolution wind resource map for all of SA based on existing WASA 3km and 5km Wind |
| |Atlas data |
| |3-km validated numerical wind atlas + detailed wind resource maps for all of South Africa |
| |Updated time series wind data for all of South Africa |
| |Report with ArcGIS ASC files |
|Indicators & means of |Tools-software with guidelines and course materials are developed. |
|verification |Project completion and evaluation report completed. |
| |Audit clearance received. |
|Prerequisites and context|Timely completion of WP31, WP32 and WP33 projects. |
| |All findings to be put in public domain. |
|Related WASA activities |This project is closely related to and depending upon projects WP31, WP32, WP33 and WP35. |
|WP Name and No. |WP35 – Extreme wind atlas |
|Main Project Team partner|SAWS and DTU |
|Objective |Extreme wind maps (10 min and gust) for WASA Phase 3 domain. |
| |Continued capacity building at SAWS in dissemination of know-how in statistical wind analysis techniques for |
| |extreme wind estimations. |
| | |
| |Time/cost savings is possible as this is basically a completion of the Extreme Wind Atlas for the remaining |
| |parts of the Northern Cape province that was started in WASA 1 |
|Scope of Work |Investigate improvement of the WAsP engineering software, specifically regarding the estimation of extreme |
| |winds |
| |Estimation of extreme winds from measured data |
| |Continued capacity building of theoretical aspects of extreme wind estimation |
| |Application of mesoscale modelling to the estimation of an extreme wind climate of South Africa –WASA Phase 3 |
| |domain |
| |Verification and integration of modelling results with those from measurements |
| |Update Extreme Wind Atlas Guide and data for WASA 3 domain |
| |Publish Extreme Wind Atlas, Guide and data for WASA 3 domain |
| |Progress reporting for PIU |
|Inputs |Observed wind measurements |
| |Model data |
| |Necessary license extensions and agreements |
|Outputs |Maps (10 min and gust) and data of estimation of the extreme wind climate of South Africa and user guide for |
| |WASA 3 domain |
| |Improvement of tools for application in WAsP Eng regarding extreme winds - detailed description of this output |
| |will depend on possibility of increased funding (pending funding) |
| |Updated Extreme Wind Atlas Guide |
| |Progress reporting for PIU |
|Indicators & means of |Project completion and evaluation report completed |
|verification |Audit clearance received |
|Prerequisites and context|No prerequisites |
|Related WASA activities |None |
|WP Name and No. |WP36 – Documentation and Dissemination |
|Main Project Team |SANEDI with DTU Wind Energy, CSIR, UCT (CSAG), SAWS and stakeholders |
|Objective |Continued National and international capacity and knowledge building through dissemination of results and |
| |know-how in application of meso- and micro scale modelling results. |
| | |
| |Time/cost savings is possible as this is basically a continuation of WASA 1 and WASA 2 project management and |
| |coordination by SANEDI for WASA 3 |
|Scope of Work |Coordinate and manage the project on behalf of the WASA team |
| |Arrange and Chair the Project Implementation Unit (PIU) meetings |
| |Represent the project at the Project Steering Committee (PSC) |
| |Prepare collate and disseminate research publications of the results of the programme, incl. final book and |
| |homepage publication |
| |Participate at national wind seminars for dissemination of the results of the programme |
| |Establish and document research cooperation between South African and international wind research partners. |
| |Update the project website |
| |Arrange the mid term workshop and final wind seminar |
| |Compile and disseminate the final reports |
|Inputs |Reports and results from WP31-WP35 |
|Outputs |PIU and PSC minutes |
| |Research publications of the results of the programme, incl. final book and homepage publication |
| |1 Mid term workshop and min 1 national wind seminar for dissemination of the results of the programme |
| |Establishment and documentation of research cooperation between South African and international wind research |
| |partners. E.g. input into the Global Solar and Wind Atlas within the Clean Energy Ministerial as coordinated |
| |by the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA) |
| |Mapping of potential as input to DoE for strategic energy planning purpose and DEA SEA Phase 2 |
|Indicators & means of |Reports, books, homepage and seminars developed and implemented |
|verification |International research cooperation supported and documented |
| |Project completion report completed |
| |Audit clearance received |
|Prerequisites and context|Timely completion of WP31-35 projects. |
| |All findings to be put in public domain. |
|Related WASA activities |This project is closely related to and depending upon projects WP31-WP35. |
2 WASA 3 Work plan
3.3 Deliverables
3.3.1 WP31 Mesoscale Modelling (UCT, DTU)
Interim and final Numerical Wind Atlas (3 km) and database for all of SA validated with wind measurements of 18 (9 WASA 1, 5 WASA 2 and 4 WASA 3) wind measurements masts spanning 5 provinces, 75% of South Africa, including the windiest provinces.
Final report including results of investigation of long term seasonal and inter-annual variation of wind and methods for long-term corrections and identification of climate change impact(s).
3.3.2 WP32 Wind Measurements (CSIR)
Site selection criteria and EIA evaluation report
Masts and instruments tender specifications and signed agreements with service/goods providers and land owners, masts insurance
4 high quality, additional to WASA 1 (9) and WASA 2 (5), wind measurement stations operating in the WASA 3 domain and providing at least two years of measurement data for calibration of meso-modelling and verification of WASA 3 domain Numerical Wind Atlas
WASA 3 and ongoing metering, data processing and online web display from existing measurement masts established under WASA 1 and WASA 2 (pending WASA 1 and 2 extended to 2019)
A database system for wind data collection and on-line Web display.
Report on measurements, including data Q and A and maintenance and service
WASA 3 masts Demobilisation tender specifications and signed agreements (if necessary)
3.3.3 WP33 Microscale Modelling (CSIR, DTU)
WASA 3 Site description reports
Observational Wind Atlas after 1st and updated 2nd year of measurements for the 4 sites in the WASA 3 domain
Updated Observational Wind Atlas for the 14 sites in the WASA 1 and WASA 2 domain
3.3.4 WP34 Application (CSIR, DTU)
Interim and final microscale resource map (mean wind power, mean wind power density, terrain surface elevation and ruggedness index) for all of South Africa with output data in GIS-compatible formats as per WASA 1
High-Resolution Wind Resource Map for All SA - based on existing WASA 3km and 5km NWA
Updated Wind Atlas and Microscale Modelling Guides, training course
Updated wind time series data for all of South Africa
Report with ArcGIS ASC files
3.3.5 WP35 Extreme Wind Atlas (SAWS, DTU)
Maps (10 min and gust) and data of estimation of the extreme wind climate of South Africa and user guide for WASA 3 domain
Updated Extreme Wind Atlas Guide
3.3.6 WP36 Management, Coordination, Documentation and Dissemination
Research publications of the results of the programme, incl. final book and homepage publication
Mid term workshop and final wind seminar proceedings
Documentation of research cooperation between South African and international wind research partners. E.g. input into the Global Solar and Wind Atlas within the Clean Energy Ministerial as coordinated by the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA).
Participation, presentation at Windaba etc.
4 Budget (include 29% hardware (masts, instruments) tender)
[pic]
An interim High-Resolution Wind Resource Map with similar input to what was applied for in the DEA SEA Phase 1 study is required for the DEA SEA Phase 2 study before the Wind Atlas and high resolution wind resource map for WASA 3 domain, validated with 2 years of measured wind data, and covering all of SA, becomes available by end of WASA 3.
Previous WRF runs applied for power system studies covering All South Africa are available, and the simulation outputs of those will be applied to provide a Fast Track Interim High Resolution Wind Resource Map for all of SA. These runs were with 5 km resolution and the Generalisation needed to create LIB-files that is required to generate the interim high resolution wind resource map still needs to be done for which a budget (R460,000) has been included for DEA SEA Fast Track. The time needed for this Fast -Track solution is estimated to 2-3 months from commencement of WASA 3 project.
[pic]
A 15 % Advance payment is payable on commencement of WASA 3
| |Total budget (Rand) |15% Advance Payment |
|SANEDI |247,000 |37,050 |
|DTU |4,193,300 |628,995 |
|CSIR |8,318,110 |1,247,716.50 |
|SAWS |424,600 |63,690 |
|UCT |1,513,824 |227,073.60 |
|Total |14,696,834 |2,204,525.10 |
1 Partner Payment schedules
Reimbursables are payable at actual cost and in accordance with applicable UNDP rules
CSIR Payment Schedule (Rand)
DTU Payment Schedule (DKK)
UCT Payment Schedule (Rand)
SAWS Payment Schedule (Rand)
SANEDI Payment Schedule (Rand)
4 PROJECT ORGANISATION
4.1 Project Steering Committee (PSC)
The existing WASA 2 Project Steering Committee (WASA 2 PSC), comprising of DoE (Chair of PSC), DST, DEA, SANEDI, and Danish Embassy (WASA 2) shall continue with the addition of the UNDP (WASA 3) and be responsible for the overall management and coordination of WASA 2 and WASA 3. The PSC shall approve any changes regarding objectives, means, organisation and budget allowed for in the WASA 2 and WASA 3 Agreements. The PSC shall meet at least twice a year.
4.2 Project Implementation Unit (PIU)
A joint Project Implementation Unit (PIU) shall be established with the WASA 3 PIU meetings which will to the degree possible be held in coordination and back to back with WASA 2 PIU meetings. The PIU comprising of SANEDI (Chair), UCT, CSIR, SAWS, and DTU Wind Energy with the DoE, Danish Programme Coordinator for WASA 2 and UNDP for WASA 3 that may be invited to the PIU meetings. The PIU shall be responsible for the overall implementation and for achieving the defined objectives within the budget and time frame of WASA 2 and WASA 3 projects. The PIU shall meet twice a year or more often as required. Meetings shall be arranged to allow for participation of Working Group members to the degree possible and relevant and if possible in connection with workshops.
4.3 Working Groups (WGs)
Working Groups (WG) shall be established for the implementation of each of the six working packages. The WGs shall consist of dedicated experts from the implementation partners, and shall meet as often as required for a timely and high quality execution of the tasks for the WG. A Work Group Project Manager shall be established for each Work Group. Detailed work plans for the six work packages, appointment of qualified members of the working groups and decisions during the project implementation regarding work packages and activities shall be presented for approval by the PIU within the framework of this Project Description.
4.4 Project Coordinator
SANEDI, as in WASA 1 and 2, shall contract with DTU, CSIR, UCT and SAWS for the implementation of WASA 3 and will continue undertaking the activities pertaining to project management, coordination, documentation and dissemination and at the same time be Work Group Project Manager for Work Group 6.
5. REPORTING AND FINANCIAL MANAGEMENT
The PIU shall report to the PSC twice a year and as per project milestone achieved through progress reports documenting the status regarding objectives, means, work group activities, time plan and budget. The PIU shall at the end of the project prepare a completion report documenting the completion status regarding objectives, means, work group activities, time plan and budget. The completion report shall further contain a discussion of impacts and the way forward for wind resource mapping in South Africa.
The WASA team shall submit to SANEDI quaterly progress report and bi-annul report with financial status for review and approval by the PSC.
Financial Management for funds received from SAWEP 2 for WASA 3 shall follow standard UNDP conditions for payments of any advances and expenses, including reimbursables incurred. The funding amount is fixed in US Dollar. SANEDI undertaking the activities pertaining to project management and coordination free of charge. SANEDI by December of each year will submit a work plan and budget for approval by the WASA 3 PSC and to be included in the next year SAWEP 2 Annual Work Plan. Partners invoice UNDP once a year by December as per the milestones achieved and submit invoices to SANEDI. SANEDI review the progress and invoices and submit to the WASA 3 PSC for approval after which SANEDI forward the invoices to UNDP for payment. UNDP will inform on the exchange rate to be used and will reclaim any VAT payments.
_____________________
-----------------------
Project Steering Committee (PSC)
DoE (chair), SANEDI, DST, DEA, SAWEP PCU, UNDP
Danish Embassy (WASA 2)
SANEDI Management & Coordination
Working Groups
Working Groups Managers
WP31, WP32, WP33, WP34, WP35, WP36
Project Implementation Unit (PIU)
SANEDI (chair), UCT, SAWS, CSIR, DTU Wind Energy, SAWEP PCU, DoE, UNDP, Danish Embassy (WASA 2)
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