Projections of Education Statistics to 2019

Projections of Education

Statistics to 2019

Thirty-eighth Edition

2016

2018

2016

2018

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2017

2019

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2017

2019

NCES 2011-017

U . S . D E PA R T M E N T O F E D U C AT I O N

Projections of Education

Statistics to 2019

Thirty-eighth Edition

MARCH 2011

William J. Hussar

National Center for Education Statistics

Tabitha M. Bailey

IHS Global Insight

NCES 2011-017

U.S. DEPARTMENT OF EDUCATION

U.S. Department of Education

Arne Duncan

Secretary

Institute of Education Sciences

John Q. Easton

Director

National Center for Education Statistics

Jack Buckley

Commissioner

The National Center for Education Statistics (NCES) is the primary federal entity for collecting, analyzing, and reporting

data related to education in the United States and other nations. It fulfills a congressional mandate to collect, collate, analyze,

and report full and complete statistics on the condition of education in the United States; conduct and publish reports and

specialized analyses of the meaning and significance of such statistics; assist state and local education agencies in improving

their statistical systems; and review and report on education activities in foreign countries.

NCES activities are designed to address high-priority education data needs; provide consistent, reliable, complete, and

accurate indicators of education status and trends; and report timely, useful, and high-quality data to the U.S. Department

of Education, the Congress, the states, other education policymakers, practitioners, data users, and the general public. Unless

specifically noted, all information contained herein is in the public domain.

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March 2011

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Suggested Citation

Hussar, W.J., and Bailey, T.M. (2011). Projections of Education Statistics to 2019 (NCES 2011-017). National Center for Education

Statistics, Institute of Education Sciences, U.S. Department of Education. Washington, DC.

For ordering information on this report, write to

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Content Contact

William J. Hussar

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william.hussar@

Foreword

Projections of Education Statistics to 2019 is the 38th report

in a series begun in 1964. It includes statistics on elementary

and secondary schools and degree-granting institutions. This

report provides revisions of projections shown in Projections

of Education Statistics to 2018. Included are projections of

enrollment, graduates, teachers, and expenditures to the year

2019. This is the first edition of the Projections of Education

Statistics to include projections of elementary and secondary

school enrollment and high school graduates by race/ethnicity.

In addition to projections at the national level, the report

includes projections of public elementary and secondary

school enrollment and public high school graduates to the

year 2019 at the state level. The projections in this report

were produced by the National Center for Education

Statistics (NCES) to provide researchers, policy analysts,

and others with state-level projections developed using a

consistent methodology. They are not intended to supplant

detailed projections prepared for individual states.

Assumptions regarding the population and the economy are

the key factors underlying the projections of education statistics.

NCES projections do not reflect changes in national, state,

or local education policies that may affect enrollment levels.

Appendix A of this report outlines the projection methodology

and describes the models and assumptions used to develop

the national and state projections. The enrollment models use

enrollment data and population estimates and projections from

NCES and the U.S. Census Bureau. The models are based on

the mathematical projection of past data patterns into the future.

The models also use projections of economic variables from

IHS Global Insight, an economic forecasting service.

The projections presented in this report are based on the

2000 census and assumptions for the fertility rate, internal

migration, net immigration, and mortality rate from the

Census Bureau. For further information, see appendix A.

Val Plisko, Associate Commissioner

Early Childhood, International, and Crosscutting

Studies Division

Projections of Education Statistics to 2019??? iii

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