Chapter 8: Elections and Campaigns



I. Functions of elections

A. Determine political leaders from a competitive field of candidates

B. Form of political participation

C. Opportunity to replace leaders without overthrowing them – makes them accountable to the public

D. Legitimize positions of power since we accept elections a fair method of selecting leaders

II. Guidelines for U.S. Elections

A. Constitution

1. Sets broad parameters for election of public officials

2. House of Representatives every 2 years; Senators every 6 years

3. Creates & defines electoral college

4. Election day set for 1st Tuesday, after 1st Monday in November in even-numbered years

B. Role of political parties

1. Candidates almost always run with a political party label but up to candidate to get ball rolling by announcing to run, raising money, collecting signatures to get on ballot and appealing to voters

2. In other democracies, it’s the party that puts candidate’s name on ballot and campaigns become contests between parties

C. Winner-takes-all

1. Candidate with most votes wins in most elections (plurality win)

2. Most elections are single member districts (in any district the election determines 1 representative)

Compare/contrast with at large districts in which all representatives are decided from 1 election – the candidate with the most getting the 1st position, the one with the 2nd most getting the 2nd position, etc.

3. Contrast the proportional representation (system in which seats are given to parties in proportion to the number of votes they receive in election; encourages multi-party system)

III. Electoral process

A. Major differences between presidential & congressional campaigns

1. Follow same basic pattern (announce, selected in primary elections, campaign against rival party candidates, chosen in general election)

2. Congressional elections are regional (senators by state & representatives by district) while presidential elections are national

3. Presidential races are more competitive; House the least competitive

a. Presidential winner rarely gets more than 55 percent of popular vote

b. Most House incumbents are reelected (more than 90 percent)

4. Fewer people vote in congressional elections especially when an off year meaning no presidential election

a. All House seats open every 2 years; 1/3 of Senate seats open

b. Gives greater importance to partisan voters (party regulars)

5. Congressional incumbents can service their constituents.

a. Can visit them personally

b. Can take credit for governmental grants, programs, and so forth

c. President can't: power is not local & must rely on media

6. Congressional candidates can duck responsibility.

a. "I didn't do it; the people in Washington did!"

b. President is stuck with blame

c. But local candidates can suffer when their leader's economic policies fail

7. Benefit of presidential coattails has declined

a. Congressional elections have become largely independent

b. Reduces meaning (and importance) of party

B. Running for president

1. Announcement

a. Assess political and financial support

b. Get mentioned

1. Using reporters, trips, speeches, and name recognition

2. Sponsoring legislation, governing large state

c. An individual effort (versus party effort in Europe)

d. Methods

1. Self announcement

2. Caucus

3. Convention

4. Petition

5. Primary election

2. Getting the campaign organized

a. Campaign organization

1. Large (paid) staff

2. Campaign manager

3. Media people

4. Volunteers

5. Advisers on issues: position papers

b. Strategy and themes

1. Incumbent versus challenger: defend or attack?

2. Setting the tone (positive or negative)

3. Developing a theme: trust, confidence, and so on

4. Judging the timing

5. Choose a target voter -- who's the audience?

c. Money

1. Individuals can give $1,000, political action committees (PACs) $5,000

2. Candidates must raise $5,000 in twenty states to qualify for matching grants to pay for primary

3. Presidential primaries

a. Set aside time to run – primary season runs from January through June before the election in November

b. May have to resign from office first

c. Technically states are choosing convention delegates

1. Democrats use proportional system

2. Republicans use winner-takes-all system

d. Candidates who win early primaries usually pick up support; losers find it difficult to raise money

e. Frontloading – tendency for earlier primaries to be more important than later ones

4. Party conventions

a. Held late summer before general election in November

b. Official nomination of party’s candidate (really selected in primaries)

c. Set party platform, show party unity, special speeches

d. “Pep rally” for the party

5. General election campaign

a. Most money spent in g. campaign ($325 million + in 2006 per candidate

b. Move to center to attract more votes

c. Debates

C. Getting elected to Congress

1. Malapportionment and gerrymandering of districts affects Representatives

2. Sophomore surge

a. Using the perks of office

1. Free air time

2. Franking privilege for official business

b. Campaigning for / against Congress

3. Impact of the way we elect individuals to Congress

a. Legislators closely tied to local concerns

b. Weak party leadership

IV. Primaries and general campaigns

A. Primary – used to select a political party’s candidates for elective office

1. Closed primary -- Voter must declare party membership and then gets to vote in that party’s primary; most states have closed primaries

2. Open primary – Voter decides when enters voting booth which primary to participate in but can only participate in one

3. Blanket or free-love primary – Voter marks a ballot that lists candidates for all parties and can select a combination of parties for office; Louisiana, Washington, & Alaska; 200 S. Court decision has cast doubt on this form of primary

4. Runoff primary – used when candidate doesn’t get majority of votes as required by state

B. Caucus

1. Local party members meet and agree on a candidate they will support; decision passed onto regional caucuses that vote on candidates; decision passed onto state caucus that makes final decision

2. Used in Iowa

a. Held in February of general election year

b. Candidates must do well so labeled a “winner” and not a “loser”

( remember horserace coverage by media

c. Winners tend to be "ideologically correct" -- most liberal Democrat, most conservative Republican usually selected

d. “Musical chairs and fraternity pledge week"

C. General election – Voters make final selection of who will fill the elected office

D. Special elections – Voters vote on issues or replacement candidates (or for removal)

E. More people vote in general elections than primaries (50% g. election, 25% primary)

F. Differences between primary and general campaigns

1. What works in a general election may not work in a primary

a. Different voters, workers, and media attention

b. Must mobilize activists with money and motivation to win nomination

c. Must play to the politics of activists to win party nomination in primary, but move to the center in general election

2. Must be conservative (or liberal) enough to get nominated

3. "Clothespin vote" -- neither candidate is appealing

G. Two kinds of campaign issues

1. Position issues

a. Rival candidates have opposing views on a question that also divides voters

b. Examples: War in Iraq, abortion, stem cell research

c. Many party realignments have been based on position issues

2. Valence issues

a. Whether the candidate’s view is same as universally shared view (other candidates & voters)

b. Examples: strong economy, low unemployment, low inflation, low crime rates

H. Television, debates, and direct mail

1. Using TV

a. Paid advertising or spots – TV campaign ad

1. Often referred to as “selling the president” or “packaging the candidate”

2. Expensive

3. More effective in primaries than in general election

4. Has little (or a very subtle) effect on outcome: spots tend to cancel each other out

5. Most voters rely on many sources of information.

b. News broadcasts or visuals

1. Cheaper than paid campaign ads

2. Have greater credibility with voters because seen as “news”

3. Must rely on having TV camera crew around

4. Less informative than spots because usually just a visual (shaking workers hands, meeting & greeting at retirement home)

2. Debates

a. Usually an advantage only to the challenger – more publicity

b. Primary debates: the "dating game" became popular in 1988

3. Risk of slips of the tongue on visuals and debates force candidates to rely on stock speeches where must sell yourself, not your ideas

4. Free television time given to major presidential candidates by networks in 1996; minor candidates not included

I. Using the computer

1. Makes direct mail campaigns possible

2. Allows candidates to address specific voters

3. Importance of mailing lists

J. Gap between running a campaign and running the government

1. Party leaders used to have bigger part in campaigns and would get jobs in the government afterward so had to worry about candidate’s reelection

2. Today political consultants run campaigns and don't take part in running the government so don’t have to worry about reelection

V. Money

A. How important is it?

1. "Money is the mother's milk of politics."

2. Presidential candidates spent $286 million in 1992; up from $177 million in 1988; spent $325+ million in 2004

B. The sources of campaign money

1. Private donors

a. Up to $2,000 to any candidate in any election per year ($4,000 -- $2,000 for primary & $2,000 for g. election)

b. Up to $5,000 to any PAC

c. Up to $20,000 per year to national party committee

2. PACs

a. Register 6 months in advance

b. Minimum 50 contributors

c. Give to at least 5 candidates

d. Up to $5,000 per candidate per election

e. Up to $15,000 to national party per year

3. 527’s

4. Party assistance

5. Public funding

6. Personal finance

C. Money in campaigns

1. In presidential primaries: part private, part public money

a. Federal matching funds match individual donors giving $250 or less

b. Must raise $5,000 in 20 different states in contributions of $250 or less to be eligible

c. Gives incentive to raise money from small donors

d. Government also gives lump-sum grants to parties to cover conventions

2. In presidential general elections: all public money

a. $20 million plus COLA (2004 $74.62 million) which becomes limit of what can spend

b. If accept public funding, can only spend $50,000 out of own pocket

c. Don’t forget! 527’s are unlimited!

3. Money in congressional elections: all private money

a. Senate campaigns = $7.1 million; House campaigns = $1 million

b. From individuals, PACs, and parties

c. Most from individual small donors ($100 to $200 a person)

d. $1,000 maximum for individual donors

e. Benefit performances by rock stars, etc.

f. $5,000 limit from PACs

g. But most PACs give only a few hundred dollars

h. Tremendous PAC advantage to incumbents: backing the winner

i. Challengers have to pay their own way; only one-sixth from PACs

D. Campaign finance rules

1. Watergate

a. Dubious and illegal money raising schemes

b. Democrats and Republicans benefited from unenforceable laws.

c. Nixon's resignation and a new campaign finance law

2. Reform Act of 1974

a. Federal Election Commission created to oversee the money

b. Set limit on individual donations ($1,000 per election) and required disclosure of any contribution greater than $100

c. No foreign contributions

d. Reaffirmed ban on corporate and union donations, but allowed them to raise money through PACs

e. Set limit on PAC donations ($5,000 per election to individuals, $15,000 per year to a party)

f. Federal matching funds made available for primaries and general election campaigns

g. Impact of the law

1. Increase in money spent on elections

2. Increase in PAC spending

3. Took control away from parties and put into hands of candidate

4. Provided advantage to wealthy challengers who could spend out of own pocket

5. Penalizes those who start fundraising late

6. Additional problems: independent expenditures and soft money

3. 1976 Amendments -- Allowed corporations, labor unions & special interest groups to raise money through PACs (corporations & labor unions limited to 1 PAC)

4. Buckley v. Valeo (1976) -- Candidate can spend as much money on his/her campaign as wants to

5. Bipartisan Campaign Finance Reform Act of 2002 (Backed by John McCain)

a. Ban on soft money (funds not specified for candidates’ campaigns, but given to political parties for “party building” activities)

b. Curbs on use of TV ads by outside interest groups

c. Increased individual contributions (to $2,000 per candidate per election)

d. Restrictions on independent expenditures

E. Money and winning

1. During peacetime, presidential elections usually decided by three things:

a. Political party affiliation – 80% of vote goes to 2 major parties so election decided by remaining 20%

b. State of the economy

1. If good, party holding White House does well

2. If bad, party holding White House does badly

3. Called “pocketbook vote”

c. Character of candidates

1. Honesty? Reliabilty?

2. Aware of social issues?

3. Acts presidential? (effective speaker, displaying dignity & compassion, takes charge, reasonable & likeable)

2. No/minimal impact from vice-presidential nominee, political reporting, religion, abortion, new voting groups such as “angry white males”, “soccer moms” or “Nascar dads”

3. Money makes a difference in congressional races

a. Challenger must spend to gain name recognition

b. Jacobson: big-spending challengers do better

c. Big-spending incumbents also do better

d. Party, incumbency, and issues also have a role

4. Advantages of incumbency

a. Easier to raise money

b. Can provide services for constituency

c. Can use franked mailings (free mailing)

d. Can get free publicity through sponsoring legislation and such

VI. What decides elections?

A. Party identification

1. Democrats should always win then but…

2. Democrats less wedded to their party

3. GOP does better among independents

4. Republicans have higher voter turnout

B. Issues, especially the economy

1. (V. O. Key) most voters who switch parties do so in their own interests

2. They know which issues affect them personally

3. They care strongly about emotional issues (abortion, school prayer, race relations, etc.)

4. Prospective voting

a. Know the issues and vote for the best candidate

b. Most common among activists and special interest groups

c. Few voters use prospective voting because it requires lots of information

5. Retrospective voting

a. Judge the incumbent's performance and vote accordingly

b. Have things gotten better or worse, especially economically?

c. Examples:

1. 1980 – voted against Carter because high inflation & interest rates (not for Reagan)

2. 1984 – voted for Reagan because inflation, interest rates & unemployment down

3. 1988 – voted for Bush Sr. because promised continuation of Reagan’s policies

4. 1992 – voted against Bush Sr. because economy sour

d. Usually helps incumbent unless economy has gotten worse

e. Most elections decided by retrospective votes

f. At midterm elections, voters tend to turn against president's party

C. The campaign

1. Campaigns do make a difference

a. Reawaken voters' partisan loyalties

b. Let voters see how candidates handle pressure

c. Let voters judge candidates' characters

2. Campaigns tend to emphasize themes over details

a. True throughout American history

b. What has changed is the importance of primary elections and tone of campaigns

c. Theme campaigns give more influence to single-issue groups

D. Finding a winning coalition

1. Ways of looking at various groups

a. How loyal, or percentage voting for party (not overwhelming)

b. How important, or number voting for party

2. Democratic coalition

a. Blacks most loyal (but make up small proportion)

b. Jews slipping somewhat

c. Hispanics somewhat mixed

d. Catholics, southerners, unionists departing the coalition lately (largest proportion but least dependable)

3. Republican coalition

a. Party of business and professional people

b. Very loyal, defecting only in 1964

c. Usually wins vote of poor because of retired, elderly voters

VII. Election Outcomes

A. Voters and candidates interested in who won but political scientists are interested broad trends in wining and losing

1 Party realignments

1. Mark significant change in the way that large groups of citizens vote, shifting their political allegiance from one party to the other

2. Usually occur because issues change which reflect new breaks between groups

3. Examples

a. 1860 – Whig Party collapsed because of strains between North & South and Lincoln’s Republicans came to power; voters realigned by north/south regions

b. 1896 – Democrats lost eastern laborers by catering to farmers; voters realigned by east/west regions

c. 1932 – Democrats become dominant with New Deal coalition of farmers, urban workers, northern blacks, southern whites & Jews

4. Dealignment since 1932 where voters are less inclined to affiliated with any political party

a. Increase in number of independents

b. Proportion of split ticket voting (vote for both parties) increased over straight ticket voting (voter for only one party)

1. Influenced by type of ballot???

2. Office bloc ballot lists all candidates running by office (more common now)

3. Party column ballot lists all candidates from party in column

5. Reversal?! in 2004 with explosion of “red” states and “blue” states; voters realigned by regions and urban/rural

B. Effects of elections on policy

1. Public policy remains more or less the same no matter which official or party is in office

2. Comparison: Great Britain, with parliamentary system and strong parties, often sees marked changes, as in 1945 BUT evidence indicates that many American elections do make great differences in policy

3. Why, then, the perception that elections do not matter? Because change alternates with consolidation; most elections are only retrospective judgments

VIII. Criticisms of campaigns

A. Coverage is unbalanced & TV ads deceiving re: issues and where candidates stand

B. Too expensive

C. Too much time between primaries and election in November

D. BUT encourages debate

E. BUT provided link between citizens and government

F. BUT provides information about candidate’s background

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