Understanding the GCC Education sector - Country profile: KSA

[Pages:10]me

Understanding the GCC Education Sector ? a country by country guide

Country Profile: KSA

This series of infographics provides a country by country overview of the education sector in the GCC.

The current nature of policy review and strategic overhaul in Saudi Arabia mean that the mechanisms for delivering education in the coming years are in flux. The initial education related objectives laid out in Vision 2030 challenge all elements of the system to improve on historical performance and prepare the country's workforce for a diversified and knowledge-based economy. How will the Kingdom's providers, regulators and funders respond? Can an environment be created that will attract the private sector, seen as being key to funding capacity and raising quality?

March 2017

Overview of the education sector

Figure 1: Structure of Saudi Arabia's education system (as of autumn 2016)1

Age

British system

American system

Saudi system

KSA key regulators

Post-

Post-

18+ secondary secondary

17 Secondary

16

12 ? 13

15

Secondary

14

Secondary 13

7 ? 11

12

7 ? 12

Postsecondary

Ministry of Education (MoE) merged with Ministry of Higher Education

(MoHE)

Secondary 10 ? 12

Intermediate 7 ? 9

Technical & Vocational Training

Corporation (TVTC)

Colleges of Excellence (COE)

Saudi Skills Standards (SSS)

11

10

9

Elementary

8

Primary

1 ? 6

Elementary 1 ? 6

7

1 ? 6

Ministry of Education

(MoE)

6

5

Kindergarten

4 Pre-primary 3 FS 1 ? FS 2

Pre K

Kindergarten

Education Evaluation Commission (EEC)

includes: - Public Evaluation Commission (PEEC) - National Commission for Academic Accreditation & Assessment (NCAAA) - National Center for Assessment in Higher Education (Qiyas) - TVTC (Awards & Evaluation Dept.)

1UNESCO; PwC analysis

2

Figure 2: Population growth in the Kingdom is forecast to accelerate over the next decade, and this, alongside increasing participation, will put pressure on provision2

Population (in millions)

18

16

14

12 3m 10

4m

3m

3m

8

7m

6

7m

8m

8m

4

2 3m

4m

4m

4m

0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016E 2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E 2021E 2022E 2023E 2024E 2025E

0-6 6-18 18-24

Age groups

Figure 3: While annual disposable income grew at 3% between 2009 and 2015, its growth is expected to slow to 2% between 2016 and 2030. Despite this slowdown, even the poorest residents will have 25% more disposable income in 2030 than they have today in real terms

Forecast real growth in annual disposable income by decile, 2016-20303

48

Figure 4: The Kingdom's primary education has slightly improved its position in global competitiveness rankings, but can other education indicators follow in order to improve overall long-term competitiveness and quality?

Global Competitiveness Index rankings comparison, 2015-16 vs. 2016-174

42

Real income growth, %

36

30

24

18

12

6

0 Decile 1 Decile 5

(poorest 10%)

Decile 10

2015-16

Overall

25th

Quality of primary education

72th

Quality of higher education

47th

Primary education enrolment

35th

Secondary education enrolment 7 th

Tertiary education enrolment

44th

2016-17

29th 64th 48th 52th 24th 44th

Change

Figure 5: KSA has seen a decline in its international testing results and a major effort is needed to reach National Transformation Program (NTP) 2020 targets5

700

618

621

600

590

597

571

500

483 460

410

400

383

465 450

394 368

483 470 429 390

480 493 436

396

460

430

439

535

460 434

Score

300

200

100

0 4th Grade

8th Grade

Mathematics

4th Grade

8th Grade

Science

4th Grade Reading

15 - year olds Reading

2011

2015

TIMSS 2020 Target Regional Benchmark (highest score)

PIRLS Int'l Benchmark (highest score)

PISA

2UN ; PwC analysis

5TIMSS; PIRLS; OECD (2016 PIRLS results

3

3Euromonitor; PwC analysis

forthcoming; 15-year olds did not participate in

4WEF (2016-17 (rank/138 countries) previous PISA assessments); PwC analysis

and 2015-16 (rank/140)); PwC analysis

Higher Education

Figure 6: Despite a recent dip, the 18-24 Saudi population is set to increase. If enrolment rates follow, around 125,000 additional seats will be required by 2020. Initial indications on policy direction for the already high enrolment rate combined with budgetary caution on capital expenditure suggest that any growth in capacity is most likely to come from the private sector

18-24 Saudi population & higher education enrolment by year and school type6

18-24 Saudi population CAGR ('10-16)

3.5

-1.8%

3.0

Enrolment CAGR ('10-16) 2.5

15% 7% 2.0

18-24 Saudi population CAGR ('16-20) 1 .7%

Enrolment CAGR ('16-20) 15% 0.4%

Population and enrolment (in m illions)

1.5

12%

6%

Enrolment - Public

1.0

5%

Enrolment - Private (''national''*)

0.5 95%

94%

18-24 Saudi population

88%

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015E 2016E 2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E

Figure 7: Public higher education institutions still dominate enrolment, however for KSA to reach its NTP target of 15% of students in non-government higher education by 2020 (from 6% today), the private sector will need to increase both capacity and quality to attract students

Top-5 private and public higher education institutions by enrolment, 20147

Institution (private) Enrolment

1 Arab Open University

2 Al-Ghad Int'l Health Sci. Colleges

3 Dar Al-Uloom Univ.

4 Prince Moh. Bin Fahd Univ.

14,921 5,874 4,769 4,493

5 Prince Sultan University

4,348

Total private

34,405

enrolment (top 5)

Total private

78,798

enrolment (KSA)

Top-5 private / KSA private enrolment (%)

44%

Institution (public) Enrolment

1 King Faisal University

2 King Abdulaziz University

186,821 167,627

3 Al-Imam

117,077

Islamic University

4 Umm Al-Qura University

93,740

5 Qassim University

67,574

Total public

632,839

enrolment (top 5)

Total public enrolment (KSA)

1,323,692

Top-5 public / KSA public enrolment (%)

48%

Total KSA enrolment, 2014 78,798 (6%)

1,323,692 (94%)

Private Public

Figure 8: There is significant work to be done, particularly in research, for the Kingdom to reach its Vision 2030 commitment to have at least five Saudi Universities among the top 200 universities in international rankings

Number of KSA institutions and ranking in the top 200 universities, 2012 & 20168

Organisation

Academic Ranking of World Universities (ARWU)

Quacquarelli Symonds (QS) World University Rankings

2012

2016

2

0

King Abdulaziz Univ. (101-150)

King Saud Univ. (101-150)

1

1

King Saud Univ. (197) King Fahd Univ. of P&M (189)

Times Higher Education (THE) World University Rankings

0

0

6 MoE; UN; PwC analysis (2016-20 seat estimate; 18-24 population calculations only;

4

*private HEIs are classified as "national" HEIs by MoE)

7MoE; PwC analysis 8KSA `Vision 2030'; ARWU; QS; THE; PwC analysis

Figure 9: 12% (190,000+) of all students enrolled in university in 2014 went abroad to study, with the US being the destination of choice. However with tightening restrictions on visa and scholarship qualification, could there be additional demand for domestic private provision?

Number of Saudi students studying abroad by country, 20149

Canada 2014: 14,721 students (7% private, 93% scholarship) 2009-2014 student change: +64%

UK 2014: 17,451 students (9% private, 91% scholarship) 2009-2014 student change: +15%

Europe 2014: 8,775 students (6% private, 94% scholarship) 2009-2014 student change: +99%

USA 2014: 110,423 students (12% private, 88% scholarship) 2009-2014 student change: +355%

Arab countries 2014: 14,917 students (52% private, 48% scholarship) 2009-2014 student change: -18%

Asia 2014: 6,728 students (15% private, 85% scholarship) 2009-2014 student change: +158%

Australia 2014: 10,517 students (8% private, 92% scholarship) 2009-2014 student change: 46%

Figure 10: For those Saudi students studying abroad, the fields of business, engineering and health remain the top choices Number of Saudi students studying abroad by field of study, 201410

Mathematics

Arts Other Social Science Architecture Physical Sciences Science Education Life Sciences Law Humanities Informatics Health Engineering Business & Management

Scholarship Private

2013 2014

9MoE; PwC analysis 10MoE; PwC analysis

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

Students abroad

50,000

60,000

5

Grade 1-12 Education

Figure 11: Unless a significant shift occurs, private sector enrolment is unlikely to exceed 12% of students by 2020 despite the government's longstanding aspiration for private provision to rise to 25%

6-18 population & grade 1-12 enrolment by school type11

Population and enrolment (in millions)

Population CAGR ('10-20) 9

2%

8

12% 12%

12%

7

11%

12%

12%

6 11%

11%

11%

12%

11%

5

4 3 89% 2

89%

89%

88%

89%

89%

88%

88%

88%

88%

88%

1

0 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016E 2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E

CAGR ('10-20): 145.%9%

3%

Enrolment - Public Enrolment - Private 6-18 Population

Figure 12: At current growth rates, over a million additional seats in grades 1-12 will be needed by 2020, of which 150,000 should come from around 800 new private schools

Grade 1-12 enrolment by school type and level12 4.5

+1 million new seats (of which 150,000 would be private)

Enrolment (in millions)

Primary Intermediate Secondary

4.0

11%

10% 3.5

9% 3.0

2.5

2.0

91%

1.5

8%

17%

1.0

92%

83%

0.5

90% 8%17%

92% 83%

8%17%

89%

92% 83%

0.0 P I SP I SP I SP I SP I SP I SP I SP I SP I SP I SP I S

2010

2011 2012

2013

2014

2015 2016E 2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E

Enrolment - public

Enrolment - private

P = primary I = intermediate S = secondary

CAGR ('10-'20)

4% 2%

3% 3% 15.9% 145.%9% 4% 15.9%

Grade level

Primary (grade 1- 6) Intermediate (grade 7 - 9) Secondary (10 - 12)

Total seats required by 2020 (public + private)

~300,000 ~300,000 ~400,000

Total seats in private schools

~70,000 ~20,000 ~60,000

Average private school size, 2014

~200 ~100 ~240

Total private schools required*

~350 ~200 ~250

11 MoE; UN; PwC analysis

6

12MoE; PwC analysis (2016-20 seat estimate; *based on 2014

average private school size per grade level)

Figure 13: The total number of private schools in the Kingdom grew 3% between 2012 and 2014 with the northwest regions (Tabuk, Jawf, Madinah) leading the way in foreign-curriculum school growth rates and the southern regions (Asir, Jizan, Najran) in national-curriculum schools. Riyadh has the most private schools and has overtaken Makkah in terms of the number of its foreign-curriculum schools

Grade 1-12 number of private schools by curriculum and region, 2012-1413 (N.B.: x-axis scale varies) Kingdom of Saudi Arabia total (3%)

Foreign National

1,203 1,089

1,370

2,599 2,633 2,671

(%) = total number of schools CAGR `12-14 above 10% CAGR 0-10% CAGR below 0% CAGR

2012 2013 2014

156

Religious

150

158

Tabuk (12%)

1

Foreign

13

17

National

4 Religious 3

3

Jawf (9%)

66 68

Foreign

4 8 10

69

National

Madinah (18%)

Foreign

22 46 72

112

National

114

115

4 Religious 5

6

Makkah (-2%) Foreign

National 42

Religious 39 43

505 443 487

651 630 617

Bahah (22%) Foreign National

4 6 8 6 6 7

Northern Borders (11%)

2 Foreign 2

3

National 85

90 95

23 26 28

Ha'il (9%)

Foreign National

2 Religious 2

2

20 18

24 25 26

30

Qassim (2%)

11 Foreign 9

9

101

National

101

105

Religious 3

Riyadh (5%)

Foreign

376 320

492

National

992 1,019 1,042

88 Religious 85

85

Asir (4%)

40

Foreign

34

38

National

3 Religious 3

3

83 90 95

Jizan (16%)

Foreign

National

13MoE; PwC analysis (data is based on currently available information; excludes special, adult, and non-traditional "mukararat" secondary education schools)

14 14

17

14 18 21

Najran (19%)

Foreign

4

9 9

National

Eastern Province (-1%)

Foreign

200 167 184

423

National

425

425

18 20

22

13 Religious 13

13

7

Figure 14: The strongest growth in school numbers is coming from the private sector at the primary level where public provision has declined. Government support for increased private sector participation needs to have an impact across age ranges to meet its targets

Grade 1-12 number of schools by school type and level, 2012-1414

Schools Schools Schools

14,000 12,000 10,000

Primary 12,600

-0.2%

8,000

6,000

4,000

4%

1,747 2,000

2012

2013

12,551

1,880 2014

8,000 7,000 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000

-

Intermediate 6,955

1%

2% 1,330

2012 2013 Public

7,069

1,382 2014 Private

6,000

Secondary

5,000 4,494

4,000

3%

3,000

2,000

1%

911 1,000

2012

2013

4,794

937 2014

Kindergarten

Figure 15: Nearly 80,000 additional seats are expected by 2020 based on current growth rates. However, to reach its NTP 2020 target of 27.2% enrolment in kindergarten (3-6 year olds), a total of about 430,000 additional seats will be required

3-6 population & kindergarten enrolment15

3,000,000

2%

-1%

Population and enrolment

2,500,000

2,000,000

1,500,000 1,000,000

Participation rate: 8%

500,000

2010 2011 2012

2013

Participation rate: 12%

NTP target participation rate: 27.2%

2020 target

Participation rate: 16% (at historical growth rate)

Additional seats required, excluding predicted growth, to reach NTP 2020 target

Enrolment - public and private

3 - 6 population

CAGR Growth at ('10 - 20) historical rate 8%

2014 2015E 2016E 2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E

Technical and Vocational Education & Training (TVET)

Figure 16: The Kingdom is aiming to equip more Saudi youth with advanced technical skills at public technical colleges, evident in the growth in the number of both male and female colleges

Enrolment and number of public training institutions by type, 2011-1416

Enrolment Public training institutions

120,000 100,000 80,000 60,000

70 35

67 36

68 37

52 35

80 65 70

60 50 40

30

40,000

17

18

14

20

20,000 10

-

0

Tech. Tech. Training Tech. Tech. Training Tech. Tech. Training Tech. Tech. Training

colleges colleges institutes colleges colleges institutes colleges colleges institutes colleges colleges institutes

(M)

(F)

(M)

(M)

(F)

(M)

(M)

(F)

(M)

(M)

(F)

(M)

2011

2012

2013

2014

14MoE; PwC analysis 15MoE; UN; UNESCO; PwC analysis (2016-20 seat estimate) 16TVTC; PwC analysis

Enrolment Public technical colleges - Female (F) Public technical colleges - Male (M) Public training institutes - Male (M)

8

 ................
................

In order to avoid copyright disputes, this page is only a partial summary.

Google Online Preview   Download