CYCLONE WARNING SYSTEM IN INDIA

CYCLONE WARNING SYSTEM IN INDIA

Dr. MRUTYUNJAY MOHAPATRA DIRECTOR GENERAL OF METEOROLOGY

INDIA METEOROLOGICAL DEPARTMENT NEW DELHI-110003

mohapatraimd@

A FEW FACTS ABOUT TROPICAL CYCLONES

As per study (1970-2019), 33% of hydrometeorological disasters are caused by TCs.

One out of three events that killed most people globally is tropical cyclones (TC).

Seven out of ten disasters that caused biggest economic losses in the world from 1970-2019 are tropical cyclones.

It is the key interest of 85 WMO Members prone to tropical cyclones. In terms of deaths due to TCs, casualties of 300,000 in Bangladesh in

1970 is still ranked as the biggest casualties for the last five decades; Cyclone Monitoring, forecasting & warning services deal with

application of all modern technologies into operational services.

Hon'ble PM's Statement after Cyclone Hudhud hit Visakhapatnam coast

In this Cyclone, India Meteorological Department provided accurate forecast by applying science and technology. The actual track, intensity and landfall were same as predicted

STATEMENT BY MEDIA ON PARADIGM SHIFT IN TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECASTING BY IMD

? FRONT LINE MAGAZINE (NOV 1999): SCIENTIFIC FAILURES. The scientific systems whose responsibility it was to predict the contours of the cyclone did a far from perfect job. To be able to do a better job next time around, an integrated approach to cyclone studies is needed.

? FRONT LINE MAGAZINE (NOV 2013): ACING THE STORM. The India Meteorological Department, with improved models and observation systems and greater forecast skills, predicts accurately not only the intensity of cyclone Phailin but also its landfall.

Cyclone Phailin, Hudhud or Fani are not an isolated cases of success

Due to several initiatives taken by IMD, Ministry of Earth sciences (MoES), Govt of India, the cyclone forecast has improved in recent years significantly

?VSC HUDHUD), Oct., 2014

Forecast Performance during 2013

Cyclone Forecast Accuracy

The forecast accuracy is at par with leading centres of the world.

The cyclone track forecast errors of IMD has reduced from 124 km in 2009-13 to 86 km in 2014-18 for 24 hr forecast, from 202 to 132 km for 48 hrs forecast and from 268 to 177 km for 72 hrs forecast.

The uncertainty in track forecast for all the lead period upto 5 days has been reduced by about 30% during the same period.

The 24 hrcyclone landfall forecast error has reduced from 91 km to 42 km during the same period.

The error in intensity forecast is also less (about 10-15 knots for 24-72 hr forecasts).

The accuracy of adverse weather warning including rainfall, thunderstorm, fog. storm surge and wind also improved significantly by about 10-20% in recent five years compared to previous five years.

Outcome

Due to above improvement in cyclone forecast accuracy, there has been increase in confidence of disaster managers and public leading to ? Minimum loss of human lives (limited to double digits) in recent years ? Decrease in area of evacuation by 100 km in 5 years and hence evacuation cost. ? Decrease in ex-gratia paid by Govt. to survivors ? Awards and Appreciations to India and IMD from various national and international agencies.

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