Introduction to Advanced Diagnostics and Prognostics for ...

[Pages:150]An Introduction to Advanced Diagnostics and Prognostics

For NRC Staff

Prepared for U. S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission Office of Nuclear Regulatory Research Washington DC

Prepared by SoHaR Incorporated Culver City, California

August 2014

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Contents

List of Figures ............................................................................................................................................. vii List of Tables ............................................................................................................................................. viii Foreword ...................................................................................................................................................... ix Acknowledgement ........................................................................................................................................ x Executive Summary ..................................................................................................................................... xi List of Abbreviations .................................................................................................................................. xii 1 Introduction................................................................................................................................................ 1

1.1 Purpose.......................................................................................................................................... 1 1.2 Definitions..................................................................................................................................... 2 1.3 Scope............................................................................................................................................. 4 Part 1: Overview of Advanced Diagnostics and Prognostics........................................................................ 5 2 The Environment for Advanced Diagnostics and Prognostics ............................................................. 6 2.1 An Introduction to the Cause of Failures ...................................................................................... 6

2.1.1 The Mathematical Model ...................................................................................................... 6 2.1.2 Failure ? Beyond Mathematical Models ............................................................................... 8 2.1.3 Time Progression of Failure Probability ............................................................................... 9 2.1.4 End of Life (EOL)............................................................................................................... 10 2.2 Assessing the Plant and Equipment State ................................................................................... 12 2.3 Prevention and Detection of Instrumentation Failures................................................................ 15 2.3.1 Self-monitoring ("Smart") Instrumentation ........................................................................ 15 2.3.2 Physical Redundancy .......................................................................................................... 16 2.3.3 Analytical Redundancy ....................................................................................................... 18 2.3.4 Typical Assessment Questions for Failure Mitigation ........................................................ 18 2.4 Economics of Diagnostics and Prognostics in the Plant Environment ....................................... 19 2.5 Summary ..................................................................................................................................... 21 3 Diagnostic and Prognostic Techniques and Methodologies ............................................................... 22 3.1 Canaries....................................................................................................................................... 22 3.2 Performance Monitoring Techniques.......................................................................................... 23 3.3 Self-Test..................................................................................................................................... 24 3.3.1 Scope of Testing.................................................................................................................. 25

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3.3.2 Implementation of Self-Test ............................................................................................... 25 3.4 Multivariate Analysis.................................................................................................................. 26 3.5 Life Consumption Monitoring .................................................................................................... 26 3.6 Vibration Analysis ...................................................................................................................... 27 3.7 Acoustic Techniques ................................................................................................................... 27 3.8 Targeted Micro/Macroscopic Measurements.............................................................................. 27 4 Example Applications of AD&P Methods and Techniques ............................................................... 29 4.1 Introduction................................................................................................................................. 29 4.2 AD&P Applied with a Model-Based Approach.......................................................................... 31

4.2.1 General Attributes ............................................................................................................... 31 4.2.2 Applicability to Levels in the System Hierarchy ................................................................ 32 4.2.3 Model-based AD&P applied to a Pneumatic Valve............................................................ 32 4.2.4 Typical Assessment Questions that Arise in the Model-Based Methodology ........................... 34 4.3 AD&P Applied Using a Data-Driven Approach......................................................................... 35 4.3.1 General Attributes ............................................................................................................... 35 4.3.2 Applicability to Levels in the System Hierarchy ............................................................... 36 4.3.3 Data-Driven Example for Computer Hard Disk Drives..................................................... 36 4.3.4 Typical Assessment Questions that Arise in the Data-Driven Methodology...................... 39 4.4 Example of AD&P Using a Hybrid Approach............................................................................ 40 4.4.1 General Attributes ............................................................................................................... 40 4.4.2 Applicability to Levels in the System Hierarchy ................................................................ 40 4.4.3 Hybrid Approach for Rotating Element .............................................................................. 40 4.4.4 Typical Assessment Questions that Arise in the Hybrid Methodology .............................. 45 4.5 Example of AD&P Implemented in NPP Internals..................................................................... 46 4.6 Summary ..................................................................................................................................... 53 5 Introducing Diagnostics and Prognostics to the Nuclear Power Environment ................................... 54 5.1 Deliberative Pathway .................................................................................................................. 54 5.1.1 Example 1 ........................................................................................................................... 56 5.1.2 Example 2 .......................................................................................................................... 57 5.2 Opportunistic Pathway ................................................................................................................ 57 5.3 Uses of AD&P Data .................................................................................................................... 59 5.4 Quality and Performance Metrics ............................................................................................... 60

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5.4.1 False Positives and False Negatives.................................................................................... 61 5.4.2 Cost of False Positives and False Negatives ....................................................................... 64 5.4.3 Prognostic Metrics .............................................................................................................. 65 6 The Future of AD&P in Nuclear Power Plants and Nuclear Fuel Cycle Facilities............................. 66 6.1 Passive Safety Features ............................................................................................................... 66 6.2 Increased Electronic/Digital Capabilities.................................................................................... 67 6.3 The Field of Prognostics & Health Management........................................................................ 67 Part 2: Regulatory Considerations .......................................................................................................... 69 7 Nuclear Regulatory Commission Documents..................................................................................... 70 7.1 AD&P and Plant Equipment ....................................................................................................... 70 7.2 Requirements Impacting Diagnostics and Prognostics ............................................................... 71 7.2.1 Single Failure and Independence Criteria ........................................................................... 72 7.2.2 Regulatory Guide 1.153 ............................................................................................................ 73 7.3 Technical Specifications ............................................................................................................. 74 7.4 Modification of Surveillance Frequencies .................................................................................. 75 7.4.1 Precedents for Modification of Surveillance Frequencies .................................................. 75 7.4.2 NEI 04-10 Risk Informed Technical Specification Task Force and Regulatory Guides (1.177, 1.175, 1.174 and 1.200) .......................................................................................................... 77 7.4.3 Summary of Surveillance Frequency Requirements ........................................................... 78 7.5 Documents Specific to Nuclear Fuel Cycle Facilities................................................................. 79 8 Industry Standards .............................................................................................................................. 81 8.1 Body of IEEE Std. 603................................................................................................................ 81 8.2 Annex A of IEEE Std. 603.......................................................................................................... 83 8.3 Provisions of IEEE Std. 7-4.3.2 "Standard Criteria for Digital Computers in Safety Systems of Nuclear Power Generating Stations" ...................................................................................................... 84 8.4 Applications of Self-Test and Built-In Test ................................................................................ 85 8.4.1 Lack of correspondence between a failure and its manifestation........................................ 86 8.4.2 Latent Faults........................................................................................................................ 86 8.4.3 Developers (particularly for software) come from a different culture than NPP engineers and operators....................................................................................................................................... 87 8.4.4 Visibility of self-test performance. ..................................................................................... 87 8.4.5 Conclusions......................................................................................................................... 87

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8.5 Other Industry Standards and Guides ......................................................................................... 88 9 Potential of AD&P to Support Plant Safety ........................................................................................ 89

9.1 AD&P Contributions to Plant Safety Assurance ........................................................................ 89 9.2 Pathways for the Introduction of AD&P..................................................................................... 90

9.2.1 Replacement of Analog by Digital Instrumentation .......................................................... 91 9.2.2 Introduction into TS Application after Use in Non-TS Application ................................... 91 9.2.3 Introduction into TS Application without Prior Experience .............................................. 92 9.3 Evaluation of the Effects of AD&P Operation on Plant Safety ................................................. 93 10 Conclusions..................................................................................................................................... 95 Appendix A Taxonomies and Their Application ........................................................................................ 97 A.1 Taxonomy of Technologies and Methods Used in Advanced Diagnostics and Prognostics ...... 97 A.1.1 Research Taxonomy............................................................................................................ 98 A.1.2 Review Taxonomy ............................................................................................................. 99 A.2 Applications: Annotated bibliography of taxonomy entries ..................................................... 101 A.2.1 Canaries............................................................................................................................. 101 A.2.2 Performance Monitoring Techniques................................................................................ 103 A.2.3 Self-Test ........................................................................................................................... 113 A.2.4 Multivariate Analysis ........................................................................................................ 114 A.2.5 Life Consumption Monitoring .......................................................................................... 116 A.2.6 Vibration Analysis ............................................................................................................ 118 A.2.7 Acoustic Techniques ......................................................................................................... 119 A.2.8 Targeted Micro/Macro-scopic Measurements .................................................................. 121 Appendix B ............................................................................................................................................... 128 B.1 Organizations, Centers and Communities................................................................................. 128 B.2 Conferences............................................................................................................................... 129 Bibliography ............................................................................................................................................. 130

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List of Figures

Figure 2-1 Probability density of load and strength...................................................................................... 7 Figure 2-2 Overlap of load and strength functions ....................................................................................... 8 Figure 2-3 Increase in failure probability over time ................................................................................... 10 Figure 2-4 Economic end of life ................................................................................................................. 11 Figure 4-1 Pneumatic Valve ....................................................................................................................... 33 Figure 4-2 Prognostic architecture (Daigle & Goeble, 2011) ..................................................................... 34 Figure 4-3 Parts of rolling element bearing ................................................................................................ 41 Figure 4-4 Amplitude modulated signal () .. 44 Figure 4-5 Noise map of control rod vibration at 1.1Hz (Thie, 1981) ........................................................ 51 Figure 4-6 Ex-core ion chambers in a PWR ............................................................................................... 52 Figure 4-7 Detector tube in a BWR core .................................................................................................... 52 Figure 4-8 Data acquisition for Neutron Noise Measurement (Fry, et al., 1984) ....................................... 53 Figure 5-1 The deliberative pathway .......................................................................................................... 55 Figure 5-2 Opportunistic pathway for adoption of AD&P ......................................................................... 58 Figure 5-3 Distributions of diagnostic measurement: (top) a low threshold will incur more False Positive (FP) results; (bottom) a high threshold will incur more False Negative (FN) results................................. 62 Figure 5-4 Definitions for False Positive and False Negative interpretations ............................................ 63 Figure 5-5 ROC curve................................................................................................................................. 64 Figure 8-1 Classification in IEEE Std. 603 ................................................................................................. 82

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List of Tables

Table 2-1 Immediate Action on Indications ............................................................................................... 14 Table 4-1 Characteristics of the Three Categories ...................................................................................... 30 Table 4-2 Smart Attributes (ATA).............................................................................................................. 38 Table 4-3 PWR Damage Mechanisms ........................................................................................................ 49 Table 4-4 BWR Damage Mechanisms........................................................................................................ 50 Table 7-1 Equipment Subject to the Maintenance Rule.............................................................................. 71 Table A-1 Research Taxonomy. ................................................................................................................. 98 Table A-2 Review Taxonomy................................................................................................................... 100 Table A-3 Expansion of the Hybrid Analysis for Electronics .................................................................. 100

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