Demographic Differences in Sentencing: An Update to the ...

Demographic Differences in Sentencing: An Update to the 2012 Booker Report

UNITED STATES SENTENCING COMMISSION

United States Sentencing Commission

One Columbus Circle, N.E. Washington, DC 20002

William H. Pryor, Jr. Acting Chair

Rachel E. Barkow Commissioner

Charles R. Breyer Commissioner

Danny C. Reeves Commissioner

Zachary C. Bolitho Ex Officio

J. Patricia Wilson Smoot Ex Officio

Kenneth P. Cohen Staff Director

Glenn R. Schmitt Director

Office of Research and Data

November 2017

Glenn R. Schmitt, J.D., M.P.P., Director, Office of Research and Data Louis Reedt, Sc.D., Deputy Director, Office of Research and Data

Kevin Blackwell, Senior Research Associate, Office of Research and Data

TABLE OF CONTENTS

Section I: Introduction........................................................................................................1 Key Findings.................................................................................................................................................................................2 Multivariate Analysis of Demographic Differences in Sentencing........................................................................3 Why Multivariate Regression Analysis is Helpful........................................................................................................3

Section II: The Commission's Updated Findings..............................................................5 Summary of Findings from the Commission's Updated Multivariate Analysis...............................................6 Results of Demographic Multivariate Regression Analysis for All Cases...........................................................8 Analysis of Differences in Sentencing by Guideline Application............................................................................9 Analysis of Likelihood of Obtaining a Below Range Sentence................................................................................14 The Effect of Adding Data on Prior Violence as a Factor in the Model...............................................................16 Limitations of Regression Analysis....................................................................................................................................17

Section III: Conclusion.......................................................................................................19 Appendices........................................................................................................................21

Appendix A: Analysis of Other Demographic Factors................................................................................................22 Appendix B: Offense Specific Analysis..............................................................................................................................26 Appendix C: Methodology......................................................................................................................................................31 Appendix D: Regression Model Output...........................................................................................................................33 Endnotes.............................................................................................................................37

Demographic Differences in Sentencing

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