The Rational Offender



The Rational Offender

Deterrence Theory

Rational Choice Theory

Routine Activities Theory

Social Context

Classical School Criminology (1750s)

Bentham, Beccaria as “utilitarian philosophers”

Articulated a “general theory” of human behavior

Rebirth of Deterrence

Social Context of U.S. in the 1970s

Murray, Martinson, Economists

Base Assumptions about Humans

1. Rational (cost/benefit)

2. Hedonistic

3. Human behavior can be controlled through certain, swift, severe punishment

Additional Baggage (assumptions)

General theory (explains all crime)

Equally feel pain

Equally judge opportunity, pleasure

Deterrence Theory

Criminal behavior (or crime rates) vary directly with _______ of FORMAL punishment.

Certainty

Severity

Swiftness

MICRO or MACRO?

Specific or General

Marginal versus Absolute

Absolute deterrence: the existence of formal punishment reduces crime

Marginal: increases in existing formal punishment reduces crime further

General Deterrence (Macro)

What should reduce crime rates?

Evidence:

Severity of Punishment

Death Penalty Research

Certainty of Punishment

Experiments in Certainty (KC patrol)

Swiftness of Punishment?

General Deterrence Micro Level

An individuals perceptions of _______ influence their decision to commit crimes.

“Perceptual Deterrence”

Criticism of “objective” = do people really know the clearance rate?

Better: what do you think the clearance rate is?

Perceptual Deterrence Research

Initial cross sectional studies:

Perceived risk, severity SR crime

But, what is the causal order??

Deterrence vs. “Experiential” effect

Manipulation of Perceived Risk

Scared Straight

Specific Deterrence

A person who commits a crime and is punished is less likely to commit additional crimes.

Swift, Certain, Severe (Marginal)

How test these propositions?

Testing Specific Deterrence

Prison vs. Probation?

Perhaps, “time in prison” or “type of prison”

More realistically

Probation vs. Intensive Probation

Probation vs. Boot Camp

Deterrence Review:

Deals only with formal legal sanctions.

Is this fair?

Empirical Support?

General Deterrence

Macro

Micro (Perceptual)

Specific Deterrence

Why little support for deterrence?

We can’t get certain, severe, swift enough

The theory is based on bad assumptions

How rational are we?

Equality of opportunity, pleasure, pain?

“Marginal” deterrence!

POLICY IMPLICATIONS

General Deterrence: certain, swift, and severe punishment reduces crime rates, or the probability that an individual will offend

Specific Deterrence: CS&S punishment reduces recidivism

Can’t/Won’t make sentences swift, certain, and severe enough?

Incapacitate

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