Does the Yield Spread Predict Real Economic Activity? A ...

forecast real economic activity. What is the yield curve? A yield curve plots the yields on debt securities with similar risk, liquidity, and tax considerations relative to the securities’ time to maturity. For example, sup-pose today the yield on a 3-month Treasury bill is 6 percent and the yield on a 10-year Treasury bond is 8 percent. The ... ................
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