PDF ENSO: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictions

[Pages:32]ENSO: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictions

Update prepared by:

Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 27 December 2021

Outline

Summary Recent Evolution and Current Conditions Oceanic Ni?o Index (ONI) Pacific SST Outlook U.S. Seasonal Precipitation and Temperature Outlooks Summary

Starting on Oct. 11, 2021, the weekly sea surface temperature data is based on OISSTv2.1 (Huang et al., 2021). This impacts slides #4-9. The source data is available at this link.

Summary

ENSO Alert System Status: La Ni?a Advisory La Ni?a is present.* Equatorial sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are below average across the central and east-central Pacific Ocean. The tropical Pacific atmosphere is consistent with La Ni?a. La Ni?a is favored to continue through the Northern Hemisphere winter 202122 (~95% chance) and transition to ENSO-neutral during the spring 2022 (~60% chance during April-June).*

* Note: These statements are updated once a month (2nd Thursday of each month) in association with the ENSO Diagnostics Discussion, which can be found by clicking here.

Recent Evolution of Equatorial Pacific SST Departures (oC)

During September 2020 to March 2021, the core of the strongest negative SST anomalies shifted from the eastern to the central Pacific Ocean.

From March to July 2021, equatorial SSTs gradually returned to average over most of the Pacific Ocean.

In the last week, below-average equatorial SSTs persisted across the Pacific Ocean.

Ni?o Region SST Departures (oC) Recent Evolution

The latest weekly SST departures are:

Ni?o 4 Ni?o 3.4

Ni?o 3 Ni?o 1+2

-0.8?C -1.1?C -1.2?C -1.3?C

SST Departures (oC) in the Tropical Pacific During the Last Four Weeks

In the last four weeks, equatorial SSTs were below average across most of the Pacific Ocean, and were above average near Indonesia.

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Global SST Departures (oC) During the Last Four Weeks

During the last four weeks, equatorial SSTs were below average across most of the Pacific Ocean. Equatorial SSTs were above average around Indonesia and in the Atlantic Ocean.

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Weekly SST Departures during the Last Four Weeks

During the last 4 weeks, negative SST anomalies persisted across most of the Pacific Ocean.

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