BIOL2300 Biostatistics Chapter 7 - Boston College
[Pages:91]BIOL2300 Biostatistics Chapter 7
Point estimates, confidence intervals and minimum sample size for proportion, mean and variance
Inferential statistics
? estimate a population parameter (proportion, mean, variance)
? confidence interval for point estimate
? hypothesis testing
? H1: patients taking Vioxx (Merck) have MORE heart attacks and strokes than those not taking Vioxx
? H0: NULL hypothesis, EQUAL number of heart attacks and strokes in control and treatment groups
Merck
? The arthritis medication Vioxx was removed from US market on Sep 30, 2004, after data from a clinical trial showed an increased risk of heart attack, stroke, blood clots and other cardiovascular illnesses.
? FDA announced in 2004 that patients taking Vioxx have a 50 percent greater chance of heart attacks and sudden cardiac death, and that patients taking the highest recommended daily dosage of Vioxx had a 300 percent greater chance of heart attack and sudden cardiac death.
? source of information from this paragraph is
ESTIMATING PROPORTIONS
Requirements to check before approximating population proportion
? Simple random sample ? Sampling with replacement (binomial)
? fixed number of trials ? trials independent ? 2 outcomes: success, failure
? Conditions allowing approximation of binomial by normal are satisfied:
where p,q are estimated by p-hat (resp. q-hat), the proportion of successes (resp. failures) in sample
? point estimate: a single value used as approximation for a population parameter
? confidence interval: a real interval
such that we are 1- confident that p lies in that interval
Rationale for confidence interval
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