Major Players - George Mason University



centercenter00Architecture ForIncreasing Space MarketsProposal Final ReportGMU SEOR SYST 490Submitted:December 5th, 2011Submitted to:Dr. Lance SherrySubmitted by:Daniel HettemaScott NealAnh QuachRobert Taylor11430053721000354330030861000Sponsored By:Table of Contents TOC \t "Heading 1,2,Title,1" Abstract PAGEREF _Toc184658031 \h 4Context PAGEREF _Toc184658032 \h 5Major Players PAGEREF _Toc184658033 \h 5Limitations PAGEREF _Toc184658034 \h 13Stakeholders PAGEREF _Toc184658035 \h 15Major PAGEREF _Toc184658036 \h 15Stakeholder Interaction PAGEREF _Toc184658037 \h 19Minor PAGEREF _Toc184658038 \h 23Problem Statement PAGEREF _Toc184658039 \h 25Need Statement PAGEREF _Toc184658040 \h 26Proposed Solution PAGEREF _Toc184658041 \h 27Architecture Requirements PAGEREF _Toc184658042 \h 28Project Objectives PAGEREF _Toc184658043 \h 28Design Process PAGEREF _Toc184658044 \h 29As-Is Model Development PAGEREF _Toc184658045 \h 30To-Be Model Development PAGEREF _Toc184658046 \h 32Simulation PAGEREF _Toc184658047 \h 38Purpose PAGEREF _Toc184658048 \h 38Output PAGEREF _Toc184658049 \h 38Transitional Architecture Plan PAGEREF _Toc184658050 \h 40Design of Experiment PAGEREF _Toc184658051 \h 40Functional Gap Analysis PAGEREF _Toc184658052 \h 40ROI Calculator PAGEREF _Toc184658053 \h 40Investment Plan PAGEREF _Toc184658054 \h 41Management PAGEREF _Toc184658055 \h 42Continuing Work PAGEREF _Toc184658056 \h 42Architecture Development Process PAGEREF _Toc184658057 \h 42Project Risk PAGEREF _Toc184658058 \h 46Work Breakdown Structure PAGEREF _Toc184658059 \h 46Project Budget PAGEREF _Toc184658060 \h 50Project Schedule PAGEREF _Toc184658061 \h 51Table of Figures TOC \c "Figure" Figure 1: Potential Plan vs Current Plan PAGEREF _Toc184658007 \h 5Figure 2: Virgin Galactic Space Ship 2 PAGEREF _Toc184658008 \h 6Figure 3: Bigelowe Expandable Space Habitat BA 330 PAGEREF _Toc184658009 \h 7Figure 4: Space Based Solar Power Satellite System PAGEREF _Toc184658010 \h 8Figure 5: Space vs Terrestrial Solar Power Harnessing PAGEREF _Toc184658011 \h 9Figure 6: Cost of Fuel in US PAGEREF _Toc184658012 \h 9Figure 7: Current Value of Rare Minerals PAGEREF _Toc184658013 \h 11Figure 8: Yearly Cost Average of Rare Minerals PAGEREF _Toc184658014 \h 11Figure 9: Robotic Gripper developed by Aaron Parness of JPL/Caltech PAGEREF _Toc184658015 \h 12Figure 10: 2010 Government Space Budgets PAGEREF _Toc184658016 \h 14Figure 11: Overview of Potential Stakeholder Interaction PAGEREF _Toc184658017 \h 19Figure 12: Overview of Current Stakeholder Interaction PAGEREF _Toc184658018 \h 20Figure 13: Overview of Potential Business Sector Stakeholder Interaction PAGEREF _Toc184658019 \h 21Figure 14: Overview of Current Business Sector Stakeholder Interaction PAGEREF _Toc184658020 \h 22Figure 15: Potential Steping Stones PAGEREF _Toc184658021 \h 27Figure 16: Classic Context Diagram PAGEREF _Toc184658022 \h 29Figure 17: As-Is Operational Context Diagram PAGEREF _Toc184658023 \h 31Figure 18: To-Be Operational Context Diagram PAGEREF _Toc184658024 \h 33Figure 19: Scenario Breakdown PAGEREF _Toc184658025 \h 35Figure 20: EFFBD Key PAGEREF _Toc184658026 \h 36Figure 21: Scenario 1 EFFBD PAGEREF _Toc184658027 \h 37Figure 22: Scenairo 1 Simulation Output PAGEREF _Toc184658028 \h 39Figure 23: Architecture Development Process PAGEREF _Toc184658029 \h 43Figure 24: Project Budget PAGEREF _Toc184658030 \h 51AbstractCurrently there is a large potential for ROI from a developed space market. However, due to a lack of industry collaboration among the key industries that could benefit from space, the ability to reach an ROI is incredibly difficult. There are currently large limitations that need to be overcome, such as the costs to launch in to space, as well as a lack of funding and investment. There are also underdeveloped, and completely non-existent, capabilities and technologies that may be needed to overcome the current hurdles stopping large ROI.An transitional model is needed that can help bridge the gap between the current situation the market is contained in, and a potential space market that would deliver a high ROI for its invested industries. By modeling the current space market and a future potential space market, we can find the key elements and identify the largest obstacles preventing the transition from occurring. With an in-depth analysis and sophisticated modeling, an architecture can be designed that will create a “stepping-stone” approach to developing space, while providing sustainability at the various levels of development.Creating an integrated behavior model of the transitional phase will be the key to understanding and creating a pathway to a developed space market. Modeling complex scenarios involving the key industries involved in the space market will allow the Integrated Behavior Model to simulate the interactions between industries. Further modeling will allow us to augment the models to generate more realistic simulations. By using subject matter experts and in-depth research, a properly modeled architecture will provide the roadmap for a sustainable path to a developed space. The final product will result in an ROI calculator that will provide ROI figures, for all the industries involved, based on the their investment.ContextThe context will cover the current resources, industries and limitations surrounding the development of a space market. The available resources on the moon and asteroids will be discussed as well as the potential markets available for industries current involved. Through collaborative efforts from all industries invested in space, a potential plan for a larger ROI is projected to be obtainable. Figure 1 illustrates an abstract idea of the current market plans with a large gap between the potential market plan. The objective of this experiment is to bridge this gap.Figure 1: Potential Plan vs Current PlanMajor PlayersTourism“Mr. Chairman, members of the Space Subcommittee and others, it is a great privilege to speak with you about the future of our space program. After forty years of space exploration, space tourism has emerged as the key to generating the high-volume traffic that will bring down launch costs, NASA’s own research has suggested that tens of millions of U.S. citizens want to travel to space, with far more if the global market is addressed. This immense volume of ticket-buying passengers can be the solution to the problem of high space costs that plague government and private space efforts alike.” – Dr Buzz Aldrin, testimonial before the subcommittee on Space and Aeronautics House Committee, June 2001In 2010, US tourism was a $758.6B industry (EITT, 2011). Tourism is a potent catalyst for the future development of space. Space tourism will play a major role in bringing the development of space in to the average person’s view. We hypothesize space tourism can be sold to the public; the demand will push investors to invest capital into space projects.0143446500As demand and investments increase, productivity and development of space projects may also increase, furthering the development of space. The production of space-planes (Figure 2), planes built for multiple space flights with significantly cheaper cost-per-flight figures, will drive prices down for space travel and pave the way for initial short term space travel. New multiple flight space-planes use new techniques for re-entry, thus helping to mitigate the major problem associated with re-usable space vehicles. A new feathering approach technique, which will slow down re-entry and decrease the angle of re-entry, will help reduce the wear on vehicles during re-entry. Figure 2: Virgin Galactic Space Ship 2Further down the line, and interest continues to grow and a true space tourism market develops, space hotels can be built to accommodate longer “space vacations.” Current hotels being developed are based on an expandable habitat design (figure 3), which will lower costs of launch into space, and take up less area during launch. The habitats will be shipped into space fully constructed, lowering the costs associated with putting a space station in to orbit. Once these hotels are built, they can serve dual purpose as an International Space Station (ISS) with much greater volume and lower cost.Figure 3: Bigelowe Expandable Space Habitat BA 330Currently, there are two major stakeholders already actively pursuing the space tourism market. Virgin Galactic Airways, owned by wealthy entrepreneur, Richard Branson, is currently developing and marketing space travel for the year 2012. Virgin Galactic has designed and constructed several different space-planes with unique abilities for making sub-orbital space luxury event, and no longer a pipe dream of many people who have the desire to travel to space. Virgin Galactic is currently reserving flight seats at $200,000 (). These trips involve a six-minute “weightless” stop at 68 miles above the Earth’s surface, approximately 6 miles above the Karman line, which is regarded as the boundary of the Earth’s atmosphere and outer space.The other major player actively investing in space tourism is Bigelow Aerospace owner, Robert Bigelow. Bigelow has already invested $180M in his company, and is on record for saying he will invest up to $.5B of his own money on his space endeavors. Bigelow’s current plans include the development of expandable habitats and a new-generation spacecraft (). Testing and launching has already occurred, and with the recent alignment with EIAST (Emirates Institution for Advanced Science and Technology) in January 2011, Bigelow aims to further develop a next-generation commercial human spaceflight program ().Space Based Solar Power SatellitesThe US energy industry last year was values at $370B in 2010. This is a large industry that could benefit from one of the biggest and cleanest sources of energy, solar power. Solar power harnessed in space has a much greater density than the power harnessed on Earth. The ability to harness solar power in space and transmit the power back down to Earth, or use the power in space, would be advantageous over using fossil fuels to power the global economy.Figure 4: Space Based Solar Power Satellite SystemThe Space Based Solar Power (SBSP) (Figure 4) system is a geostationary solar power harnessing system that would transmit solar power from space to Earth via microwaves. The harnessing capabilities of the SBSP system are much greater than any Earth based system. Figure 5, from a National Space Security Office report in 2007, illustrates the large advantage of the SBSP system. With almost 1400 watts per square meter of radiation absorption versus only an approximate 600 watts per square meter at only the most optimal conditions (mid year at mid day), it makes evident the advantage of a space based solar power harnessing system. With the SBSP’s geostationary orbit, it would remain in view of the sun for all but approximately 6 minutes a day, allowing its productivity to be close to 99% of its operational time.Figure 5: Space vs Terrestrial Solar Power HarnessingEven after the loss of power through transmission (a transmission efficiency of 80-90%: 1122-1260 watts per square meter), the harnessed power from the sun is still significantly higher. The ability to harness solar power in space will also help the sustainability of future projects in space by providing the power for these projects.A pentagon study shows, that If launch costs could be dropped to below $200/lb, the energy harnessed by SBSP could be sold for approximately $.08/kWh on Earth. Figure 6 shows a comparison of the current fuel price ranges in the US.Fuel TypePrice (? per kWh)SBPS8Natural Gas3.9-4.4Coal4.8-5.5Nuclear11.1-14.5Figure 6: Cost of Fuel in USMining & ManufacturingThe mining industry is in the process of discerning between destinations, be it the moon or asteroids. Experts say the moon is a more convenient destination for mining, and for a manufacturing base. However, the moon is protected by the moon treaty (). While the US has not ratified the moon treaty, they are still bound by it, and it is treated as a regulatory hurdle to be overcome by the mining and manufacturing industries.According to John Lewis’ (accredited author and former professor at MIT, currently teaching at the University of Arizona’s planetary science department) book Mining the Sky, a 1 km diameter asteroid weighs roughly two billion tons; 30 million of which are nickel, 1.5 million tons of cobalt, and 7,500 tons of platinum. There are roughly one million of these asteroids in this solar system. The issue lies in processing the asteroid material and refining it to these quantities. Until refinement occurs, there will be tons of excess asteroid material, as well as payload constraints for the return trip. It’s necessary to find a use for those resources, such as nickel, that aren’t cost effective to bring back to Earth.The resources available on the moon and asteroids are significant. The moon offers many minerals, such as oxygen, silicon, iron, nitrogen, magnesium, aluminum, and calcium. Asteroids offer many minerals as well, including but not limited to: Iridium, osmium, platinum, helium, copper, nickel, iron, gold, oxygen, hydrogen, nitrogen, potassium, and phosphorus. NASA has identified approximately 832 asteroids of a diameter equal or greater to 1 km in diameter within Near Earth Orbit (NEO)(NEO is defined as within 1.3 AU of the Earth, reaching to just before the asteroid belt and the sun). The minerals humans would need at a bare minimum to sustain life would be water and oxygen. For plant life, nitrogen, phosphorus and potassium would be needed at a minimum. Both asteroids and the moon provide these resources we would need for sustained life.For metals to be mined for profitability on Earth, it would require the value of that metal to be of a value greater than that of its costs to acquire it in space. Figure 7 shows a table representing current values of high-valuable metals. Figure 8 shows a 19-year trend plot indicating the changes of values of these metals. The large spike in the value of Rhodium is attributed to its large usage in high-definition television screens, and is correlated with the increased demand for these televisions.Metal2011 Value (US $)Gold1642Platinum1519Rhodium1625Iridium1085Palladium605Figure 7: Current Value of Rare MineralsFigure 8: Yearly Cost Average of Rare MineralsThe means of mining an asteroid are not well defined. Asteroid composition will dictate the type of mining techniques necessary to gather resources from the asteroid. Trade-off analysis needs to take place between: human asteroid mining or autonomous robotic mining, feasible mining techniques for the different type of asteroids (C: carbon, organic chemicals, hydrated minerals, S: distinguishable minerals and metals, or M: mostly metal), going to the asteroid to mine or bringing one back to Earth’s orbit, and means of attaching to, or tethering to, the asteroid during the mining process. The feasibility of several of these methods must be looked into since the entire procedure is currently theoretical.New technologies, such as the latching device from JPL & Caltech (Figure 9), are being designed to address the concerns of mining asteroids. This “specialized claw” could be used either to tow a small asteroid back to Earth, or as a device for attaching to an asteroid during the mining process. The feasibility of such a mission was discussed in a four-day workshop at California Institute of Technology in September 2011. This type of mission for bringing an asteroid back to a Lagrange point near Earth (a point in space where the sum of gravitational pulls is equal to zero) is possible in the future according to the CalTech workshop. This device could also prove useful in planetary defense; being able to tow away asteroids that could collide with Earth.Figure 9: Robotic Gripper developed by Aaron Parness of JPL/CaltechLimitationsLaunch CostWith launch costs being the largest contributor of the total costs of space missions, it is key to lower launch costs to begin on the path towards making space missions more feasible. Many industries will be relying on technology breakthroughs and advancements that will drive down the price per pound index of launching into space. Until these costs reach a more realistic price point, a realistic return on investment will be hard to sell.The most current price goals of $1000 per pound are projected to be reached by SpaceX in 2013. SpaceX’s Falcon Heavy launch vehicle will be projected to launch in early 2013, and with a schedule of at least 4 launches annually will be projected to reach the $1000 milestone (). The Falcon heavy has an estimated payload capacity of up to 53,000 kg, placing the Falcon heavy in the Super Heavy classification (50,000 kg) for launch vehicles.TechnologyRoboticsCurrently the technology in today’s robotics is not at a level to make it feasible to use as a means of mining. Remotely controlled robotics lacks the precision and control that a miner would be able to possess during on site mining. Latency issues, along with dexterity, make robotics a poor choice in this technology age.Life SustainabilityNitrogen, while abundant on Earth, is far less prevalent in Space. Nitrogen is a necessary nutrient for plant growth, and being able to establish a presence in space involves having nitrogen to grow food. A ton of regolith on the moon contains about 100 ppm of Nitrogen. Any chance of sustaining plant life in space would require nitrogen, phosphorus and potassium, which will not likely be gathered on site. (Harrison Schmitt, 2005) ()FundingLast year, only an estimated $71B was spent globally by governments on space programs. NASA’s 2010 budget was only $18.7B, approximately .6% of the entire US federal budget. Figure 10 illustrated the budgets of the larger space programs across the globe. NASA has the largest budget of all of the space capable countries, however, only approximately $5.6B of that budget is spent on space exploration. In order to achieve a space market, more investment needs to be made.CountrySpace Program BudgetUSA$18.7BChina$1.3BRussia$3.8BIndia$1.25BFigure 10: 2010 Government Space BudgetsLack of CollaborationAll of these plans focus on overcoming the difficulties in their own respective area. While the solar powered satellites may reference a need for a reduced launch cost, they have to plan to overcome that obstacle. In the same regard, while the mining plan realizes that they need to use solar energy as the initial power source, they do not address how the solar panels would be constructed or placed in space. As shown there is a need for a plan that unites all of these design plans. A strong interdependent architecture needs to be constructed that shows how progress in one design aids the progression of another.StakeholdersMajorThe space exploitation architecture being developed has many stakeholders. The primary stakeholders consist of the groups that will further develop space, such as the governments helping push forth the effort to develop, as well as the Mining and manufacturing companies that will provide the resources outside of Earth to create the physical framework in space. The secondary major stakeholders consist of the entire Earth’s ernmentsGovernments around the world all have a stake in space. Their objectives include expanding their domain, boosting their economies, and protecting the people that they govern. Dated legislation such as the Moon Treaty serves as the only guideline for space exploration. The Moon Treaty bans any state from claiming sovereignty over any territory of celestial bodies, and no space capable countries have ratified the treaty, rendering it a failed treaty. Serious consideration concerning policy must be undertaken by governments to prevent the misuse of space. The expansion of a government’s domain encompasses both economic gains and military presence. Because governments are looking to expand their domain, prospective space-faring countries may feel entitled territory in space in which to expand, and conflict could easily arise from the tension associated with this land-grab. Government’s third objective, to protect the people they government, is also a major issue concerning space. In addition to the risk of military conquest in space, governments must also undertake planetary defense. An asteroid that is en-route to Earth must be deterred in some manner to prevent a catastrophic disaster, and it is the government’s responsibility to develop a plan to neutralize this threat. However, there’s an inherent problem here: there is no effective means of detecting asteroids. It is imperative that awareness of asteroids improve in addition to developing strategies for neutralizing the threat of an asteroid collision.InsuranceThe insurance companies have a potentially large stake in the future of space exploration and development. Space development and exploration companies will be insuring their various pieces of equipment, and as an insurance company, the ability to lessen the likelihood of damage to these insured pieces of equipment is critical in maximizing profit and cutting cost to the customer. If the insurance companies invest in creating methods to help eliminate or minimize damage to equipment, it would benefit their bottom line.A good starting point for insurance companies would be space debris collection. According to CelesTrak at the Center for Space Standards and Innovation, of roughly 37000 satellites in space, around 58% of them are inactive. This creates a hazardous environment for the remaining 42% of functioning satellites. Moreover, these dead satellites collide, causing more clutter in Earth’s orbit. Removal of this debris is imperative, both to reduce the cost of insuring satellites, and to reverse the current trend. ()Mining & ManufacturingThe objectives of the mining industry are simple. These companies wish to utilize resources of Near Earth Asteroids and the moon. Some asteroids are comprised principally of iron and nickel of a very pure grade that would require minimal refining compared to that found on Earth. In addition, these asteroids contain metals that are rare on Earth. Mining on Near Earth Asteroids is considered a green endeavor as well, reducing the amount of mining that takes place on Earth. The mining industry’s objective is to find and flesh out the means of mining in outer space. The question of manned or autonomous missions is an important one to ask as well. Another important obstacle to be overcome is the development of mining techniques in space. Mining techniques on Earth leverage gravity which is less prevalent in space. Gravitational pull depends on the mass and size of an object. The gravitational pull on the moon is one sixth that of Earth’s gravity, 1.622 meters per second squared, and asteroids in general have several order of magnitudes less. Mining will need to augment existing techniques on Earth as well as develop new techniques that can be used in space. ()With regards to manufacturing, there are opportunities to utilize the conditions of space as well. Space is a sterile environment with a hard vacuum, microgravity, and access to both solar heating (as well as power) and intense cooling. Microgravity is useful for creating large-scale engineering projects that do not need excessive focus on stress design. Also, it is possible to leverage the surface tension in microgravity, which renders liquids into perfectly round spheres, to create ball bearings in space. The objectives of manufacturing are to utilize the bulk and rare materials of space by means of techniques employed on Earth, make changes to those techniques that are currently infeasible in space, and develop new techniques that utilize the conditions of space.TourismThe tourism industry already has a large interest in space travel (i.e. Virgin Galactic, Bigelow Aerospace), and is attempting to make space travel available to civilians. The introduction of space as a travel destination will open the doors to furthering space development. If space tourism becomes successful, it will germinate the idea of space development in the minds of human-kind. Currently, the exclusivity of these pioneering ventures carries a large price tag (currently $200k to $20m price range). The sustainability of such endeavors has yet to be determined.The development of tourism is also hindered by the high price of servicing destinations in space. For example, the maintenance of a tourism destination in low Earth orbit, say a hotel, involves shielding from radiation, oxygen, food, power, water, and station keeping (the thrust necessary to keep in orbit) that must all be brought from Earth. The same issues are present for destinations in geosynchronous Earth orbit and in space. Either the price of launching these materials needs to decrease, or the majority of these resources need to be found in space.Earth’s PopulationThe improvement of space infrastructure and the development of space also have a huge impact on the population of Earth. A successful expansion of the mining and manufacturing industries means less of an impact on the Earth’s environment. Likewise, mining, manufacturing, and energy reception in space provide the Earth’s population with more resources and products.There are also potential new techniques developed in space that can improve the quality of life for the Earth’s population. An example of this is crystal formation which is much more fine and pronounced in the conditions in space. Specifically, the growth of insulin protein crystals in space lead to a better understanding of insulin which can allow pharmaceutical companies to better treat the symptoms of diabetes.()EnergyThe energy industry’s objective is to provide energy to Earth and space at minimal detriment to the environment. Energy provision on Earth is subject to government regulation that protects the environment. The abundance of clean energy in space, in the form of solar energy, will likely be the mainstay of energy provision for space. However, launch costs do not presently facilitate launching solar panels manufactured in Earth. Either the cost of launching into space needs to decrease or a means of developing solar panels in space by mining and manufacturing would need to occur.Even taking into consideration the lower efficiency of solar panels produced using space materials; the energy industry can utilize the conditions of space to create massive solar panel farms. These farms would not require significant structural integrity due to the microgravity of space.Stakeholder InteractionFigure 11: Overview of Potential Stakeholder InteractionTo help illustrate the interactions between the stakeholders, a diagram of the potential interactions was developed, depicted in Figure 11. For the sake of simplicity, the four stakeholders that comprise the various industries considered in this project have been grouped together and are explored in more depth in a later diagram. This diagram depicts three cycles: Earth’s population provides investment to the business sector which in turn provides products, resources, and services back to the Earth’s population; government receives funding in the form of taxes from the Earth’s population and provides security and law; government receives funding in the form of taxes from the business sector and provides regulation and contracts to the business sector. Unfortunately, there’s a lack of investment in the business sector regarding space. As a result, there is a limited market that restricts these industries from providing resources, goods, and services to the Earth’s Population, as depicted in Figure 12. This lack of interest reflects the low prioritization of space for the Earth’s population which is more concerned with current events like the state of the economy and political affairs.Figure 12: Overview of Current Stakeholder InteractionA separate stakeholder diagram was developed to depict the interactions between the industries in the business sector. This diagram can be seen in Figure 13.Figure 13: Overview of Potential Business Sector Stakeholder InteractionMining and manufacturing have been placed the center of our diagram to express its importance. Note also that the roles of each industry have been explained in their respective boxes. This diagram also contains two major loops: mining and manufacturing provide finished products to the energy industry which demands these products; mining and manufacturing provide finished products to tourism which demands these products. There’s also a less significant loop between mining & manufacturing and insurance: mining and manufacturing provides products to insure, and insurance provides coverage for these products and assets. In general, insurance provides coverage for all of the investments of these various industries.Figure 14 depicts the stakeholder interaction in space in present circumstances. No mining and manufacturing or energy is present in space. Furthermore, insurance costs are too high due to the inherent risk of space, and tourism is underdeveloped. The expansion into space for these industries requires a staggering amount of investment, and these industries are only considering space independently. This lack of collaboration between industries hinders the development of space completely, limiting humanity’s exposure to space. There is a “win-win” scenario here: collaboration between industries to develop space can allow the interactions depicted in this diagram to occur. The supply of resources by energy and mining and manufacturing does not presently exist in space because there isn’t sufficient demand for those resources in space.Tension:No collaborationbetweenIndustriesTension:No collaborationbetweenIndustriesFigure 14: Overview of Current Business Sector Stakeholder InteractionMinorAlong with the major stakeholders, there are also minor stakeholders that will benefit from space mining. These stakeholders include: robotics, launch, command and control, the farming industry, telecommunication and the entertainment business.RoboticsFully or partially automated missions necessitate agile robotic equipment capable of carrying out the task of mining. Extensive coding and mechanical design are required to facilitate more advanced and reliable robotics that can handle the job, as well as minimize error. This is especially true when considering the new techniques required to facilitate mining in space. The mining industry must work in conjunction with robotics to develop techniques that can feasibly be performed by robots.LaunchLaunch facilities that provide an area to launch into space are another stakeholder. As mining and manufacturing companies begin to expand their industry into space, these launch facilities will get more traffic. This increased traffic may require additional launch mand & ControlLikewise, the command and control industry that provides communication for these missions will also need to expand as the various industries embark into space. These groups serve as the administrative element of missions in space that oversee launching, landing, and mission control.TelecommunicationsAlso associated with robotics and command & control is the telecommunications industry. The means of communication between command & control and those entities, robotic or human, on the mission, as well as communication between the humans on the mission and the robotic equipment all require telecommunications. Advancements to this field are necessary to address high latency times for issued commands to robotic equipment.FarmingThe farming industry is also a stakeholder. Sustaining life in space involves developing farming techniques that can handle the harsh environment of space. The lack of nitrogen, phosphorus, and potassium in space that are necessary to cultivate plants must be addressed. Any manufacturing or mining outpost in space that must support humans must provide food in a sustainable manner.EntertainmentThe entertainment industry is also a minor stakeholder with a broad range of influences. Movies can and should begin to foster the idea of proceeding into space. The same way “2001: A Space Odyssey” inspired people about the future of space, we must continue in this manner to inspire people to embark into space. Likewise, the publicity generated from pioneering space ventures like the moon landing in 1969 also serve to inspire the Earth’s population to be invested in space monetarily as well as personally.Problem StatementThere are potentially large markets that can utilize the resources and benefits of space. However, the capabilities to utilize those resources do not cost effectively exist in current markets. Through an incremental “stepping stone” approach, the architecture will show the order for the development of capabilities to attain resource utilization in space.Need StatementCurrently, the required investment needed to capture space resources is too high. A high-level architecture that shows how through an incremental “stepping stone” approach the total investment could be lowered, as industry collaboration is increased. The architecture will provide a road map for industry investments with a minimum of 1.5x return on investment from a total investment of less than one trillion dollars annually.Proposed SolutionIn order to develop mining and manufacture in space a high-level transitional architecture is designed to show how industry collaboration can be used to further develop capabilities for space development. The design will show through a sequence of stepping-stones (Figure 15) how investment in capabilities could be reduced from the current market position. Figure 15: Potential Steping StonesFirst we look at the potential market in space such as Hotel, Space Tourism and Garbage Collection. The outcome of these investments enables new technology such as propulsion and would improve life support. A step forward would be Space Power Generation and Asteroid Defense, this will improved protection for Earth from Space artifacts and enhance international cooperation. This put us a step into Near-Earth Asteroid Mining and Manufacturing this would provide Earth with direct minerals and energy that is obtain from space such as solar power. Moving forward lead us to Near Earth Colonies, which in return we get new living space and new ways to improve environment on Earth. Architecture RequirementsR.1 – The architecture shall show the overall investment from industries is less than one trillion dollars annually.R.2 – The architecture shall be designed such that no individual stakeholder will invest more than 10% of overall investment.R.3 – The architecture shall produce a plan that generates an ROI of at least 150% for all stakeholders over 5 years.R.4 – The architecture shall be limited to three levels of functional decomposition.R.5 – The architecture shall produce a plan for investment into capabilities defined as necessary for a space market.Project ObjectivesThis project’s objectives are tied back to SPEC Innovations, the sponsor of the project. A thesis was developed in the early stages of development for this project: Without mining & manufacturing, the required investment from other industries looking to expand into space will be higher. Thus, the project entails the creation of an ROI calculator to evaluate this thesis. This ROI calculator was leveraged as a part of SPEC innovation’s proposal for DARPA’s (Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency) 100 Year Starship. SPEC’s description for this project is as follows: “[The project] identifies potential return on investment for space to attract commercial and public support.”Design ProcessIn order to better understand the problem, a Classic Context Diagram (Figure 16) was created. On the left of the diagram are the inputs that are needed to reach a developed space where it would be possible to conduct mining and manufacturing in space. If mining and manufacturing in space was achieved, there would be the outputs seen on the right of the diagram.Figure 16: Classic Context DiagramFour major inputs are needed to reach the mining and manufacturing in space goal. The first is investment; this input involves having people and governments investment of money into research that develops capabilities and technologies for space development. Second is Technology & Systems; here we capture improvements made in space technologies. The third input is laws; as human presence in space increases, the need for regulation becomes crucial. This input includes not only the creation of new laws, but also the alteration of current laws to allow industries to further expand into space. The final input is people: without people’s interest in developing space, the funding that will fuel the development of necessary technologies will be at its current, insufficient level.This figure also has four major outputs. The first output is increased security; the output captures the increase ability to detect possible asteroids that would cause harm to Earth, along with the ability to mitigate that risk. The second is power generation. Power generation implies the use of large solar panels to collect and transmit energy to Earth and other space habitats. Third is reduced impact on environment: by utilizing the abundance of solar energy near Earth to provide power, Earth-based mining operations could be reduced. Finally, return on investment; without being able to see the ROI of being in space, governments and people are unlikely to invest in space.In order to construct a transitional architecture, an understanding of both the current “As-Is” and future “To-Be” models is required. It is important to know the current state of development and the desired state of development. This understanding is required to be able to contrast the functionality presently available with the functionality that is required. The accuracy of the integrated behavior model and functional gap analysis, which will be discussed later, depend on being able to properly address the functionality required in the “To-Be.” This process is paramount for a successful transitional architecture.As-Is Model DevelopmentOperational Context DiagramIn order to better understand the “As-Is” an operational context diagram was created (Figure 17). The context diagram captures certain limiting factors: laws and policy, launch capabilities, the population’s priorities, and funding from the government. Also, potentially useful future technologies that are currently in development were addressed.Figure 17: As-Is Operational Context DiagramTo elaborate, laws and policy include primarily the Moon Treaty, which inhibits progression into space. Being able to utilize the Moon as a base for going further into space seems to be a logical step in the development of space infrastructure, and the Moon Treaty bans any state from claiming sovereignty over any territory of celestial bodies. As previously mentioned, it is not ratified by space-faring countries and has been rendered dead, but will certainly be addressed as states do embark into space. Adding to this is the current capabilities of rockets, launch facilities and command & control. Limitations concerning launch payload capacity, the cost per pound to get into space, and communication lag times all contribute to the lack of progression in space. ??????????? Breaking down future technology, two examples included solar power generation and alternative launch capabilities. Solar power generation encompasses using solar power to provide energy, which will surely be leveraged in space. Likewise, alternative launch capabilities encompass reusable space spacecraft such as SpaceX’s Dragon capsule.Conceptual ModelUtilizing the information gathered to construct the context diagram, a conceptual model is formed. The conceptual model shows that there is limited functionality in space, mostly restricted by: lack of investment, current multination laws, high launch cost and low launch payloads, and lack of technology development. The model also identifies that the current ROI is less than zero, which is limiting where investment comes from. The conceptual model leads to the conclusion that the current level of space development is well known, and thus an executable functional model is not required.To-Be Model DevelopmentOperational Context DiagramThe first step to building to “To-Be” model is to create an operational context diagram (figure 18). This context diagram shows that what is needed to be at the desired level of space development. The diagram addresses many of the issues that were limited in the “As-Is.” These limiting factors include: priorities, launch capabilities, laws, and technology innovation. The model also includes potential ways to make money in a developed space; mining, manufacturing, energy and tourism. The underling point of this model is that in this developed space the ROI would be greater than zero.Figure 18: To-Be Operational Context DiagramScenario DevelopmentWith an understanding of the key areas in “To-Be,” the process for creating a functional executable model can begin. The first step in this process is to create scenarios that focus on the major industries in a developed space. These scenarios start at a low level of complexity and then increase in complexity as each scenario is developed. The idea behind constructing scenarios in this manner is that during the process of deriving functions, many of the functions from the previous scenario can be reused. This process is essentially a ConOps (concept of operations) that captures the functionality of developed space. Functional development will be discussed more below.As a team, seven scenarios were developed. These scenarios each focus on their own industry and each scenario is more complex than the last. The scenarios are:Moon Round-tripThis scenario consists of a single space ship that is launched from Earth and proceeds to orbit the Moon. After a set number of days, the space ship returns to Earth.Debris CollectionA debris collection vehicle enters the Earth’s orbit and proceeds to collect orbital debris. The collected debris is sorted in space. Unneeded materials are sent to the sun and useful materials are returned to Earth to be recycled.Space Based Solar PowerA large solar power satellite is launch from via multiple launches. The satellite is constructed and placed into geostationary orbit around Earth. The satellite beams energy to a collecting station on Earth.Lunar Hotel from EarthShort-term living structures are launched from Earth for assembly on the Moon. Materials for life-sustainability are continually launched from Earth to maintain the habitat.Solar Flare at Lunar HotelDuring operation of the lunar hotel, a solar flare occurs causing equipment failure and depressurizing of one of the habitats. Emergency measures are activated and personal are evacuated to a secure location.Space MiningEquipment and personnel are launched to mine an M-type asteroid. The raw ore is sent to Earth to be cleaned and sold on the market.Lunar Hotel with Space MaterialsA space habit is constructed utilizing materials from space. The habitat is sustainable and requires minimal support from Earth. During operation, a micrometeorite causes equipment failure. Redundancy in the system prevents total system failure, and no evacuation is required.In order to better illustrate the increasing of complexity of each of these scenarios, a table (Figure 19) is shown. The table identifies the key business, max distance, and expected human duration for each of the scenarios. ScenarioBusinessEnvironmental RiskLaunch LocationMax DistanceProductExpected Duration1TourismNoneEarthMoonNone10 days2Insurance/Recycling/GovernmentsNoneEarthGEORecycled materials, reduced risk3 days3EnergyNoneEarthGEOEnergyNone4Tourism/ManufacturingNoneEarth/MoonMoonHotelLong Term5Tourism/ManufacturingSolar FlareEarth/MoonMoonHotelLong Term6MiningNoneEarth/Asteroid1.3 AUOre3 years7Tourism/Mining/ManufacturingMicro meteoriteAll1.3 AUHotel/OreLong termFigure 19: Scenario BreakdownFunctional Scenario ModelsWith written descriptions of the scenarios established, the process of creating functional representation begins. Using Vitech CORE software, each scenario was broken down into its functional elements. In order to provide a visual representation of the functionality of the scenario, an Enhanced Function Flow Block Diagram (EFFBD) was used. This diagram provides a visual view of: functions, sequence of functions, and inputs and outputs.A breakdown of how to read an EFFBD is shown on Figure 20. Figure 20: EFFBD KeyFunctions – Main component of the EFFBD. They have duration and cost associated with them. Any inputs received are transformed into outputs as the function is performed.Input – A transmitted item that is received by a function.Output – A transmitted item that is generated by a function.Trigger – A type of input that is required before the function is performed.Parallel Branches – Branches of functions that operate concurrently.Loop – A sequence of functions that are repeated until a loop exit is reached.Loop Exit – Exits the current loop, allowing functions after the loop to begin.Exit Conditions – Possible continuing branches after a function, often based on probability.Figure 21 below is an EFFBD for scenario 1. The model contains all the necessary functions to complete the scenario 1. In the model, there are three parallel branches where each branch groups the functions that focus on: launch and landing, traversing, and orbiting. The functional model is also an executable model, which will be discussed more in the simulation section. Figure 21: Scenario 1 EFFBDAll of the scenarios will have functional models similar to this model. In developing the models, common functions will be carried over from the previous model, in such as way that only the functions that are unique to that scenario are added to the model. When scenario 7 is completed, the Integrated Behavior Model is near complete. Integrated Behavior ModelThe Integrated Behavior Model (IBM) is the final “To-Be” model. This model is in steady state and contains all the functionality from the scenarios. By being built from all the scenarios, the IBM is able to identify the necessary functions and generic assets needed for a developed space. Via simulation, the IBM can be manipulated to provide the foundation for the ROI calculator. SimulationTo simulate the scenarios and the Integrated Behavior Model (IBM), Vitech CORE Sim will be used. CORE Sim is a function simulator that utilizes element data to simulate an EFFBD. This tool is built into Vitech CORE and contains COREScript. COREScript is a powerful scripting engine that allows attribute manipulation, logic control, and more. Examples of attribute manipulation include duration for a function or link and the cost of functions, resources and assets, and amounts of resources. PurposeSimulating the IBM has three major purposes. First is that simulation aids in the validation of the functional model. While the EFFBD may appear to be correct, simulation is able to show logical loops, logic stops, or resource errors. The second major purpose is to show how changing an element’s attributes can affect the whole system. For example, if the cost of capturing an asset were reduced, what percentage change would occur on the total cost? Another example: if mining were to utilize a semi-autonomous robot to gather ore, how much more ore could be removed if the communications delay between controller and robot was reduced? The final purpose of simulation is to dictate the design of the transitional architecture. With simulation, ROI can be calculated, and necessary functions are identified for the gap analysis. OutputThe output of CORESim is the simulation screen (Figure 22). This screen shows resource and functions over time. Depending on the function, resources are consumed or created. The amount of a resource that is available is shown in the grey bars. Below the resources is a list of functions; the green bars next to the function name indicate when the function was activated for set duration. A yellow bar indicates that a function is able to start however cannot as the function is waiting for the trigger. Figure 22: Scenairo 1 Simulation OutputWhen the simulation includes cost attributes, the cost of the investment and the revenue can be shown. These cost values are key to determining the possible ROI for an industry. Transitional Architecture PlanDesign of ExperimentFirst a Functionality Gap Analysis will be performed. By addressing the gap between current and desired functionality, the Integrated Behavior Model can be constructed. Evaluation and validation of the IBM will provide the foundation for the ROI calculator. The ROI calculator will be used to produce architecture design plans for maximizing ROI for the investing industries.Functional Gap AnalysisBy comparing the “As-Is” model to the “To-Be” model, a Functionality Gap Analysis can be performed to determine what will need to be done to reach transition from “As-Is” to “To-Be.” The FGA will identify, from the “To-Be” model, functions that are underdeveloped or non-existent in the “As-Is” model. Limitations from the “As-Is” will also be identified as obstacles that need to be overcome. Furthermore, the FGA will identify necessary future capabilities and technologies that will be needed to successfully transition from “As-Is” to “To-Be.”ROI CalculatorThe ROI calculator is the final product of the architecture design plan for this experiment. The calculator will allow industries to input a desired amount of investment and then generate a potential ROI with a minimized risk factor. The calculator will pull data from all industries and use the behavior mapped out in the IBM to produce the results. The basis of these results is reliant upon the element attributes of the models as well as the costs associated with the each function in all of the models inside the ROI calculator. The resulting outputs of the calculator will also be compared to that of the full life cycle costs of the systems involved on Earth. The full life cycle costs will be based on those from the inception of a system, all the way to the completion or disposal of a system. The comparison of these costs numbers will help determine when it will become more cost effective to move such systems into space.The ROI calculator will have the capability to augment several parameters, such as time, asset characteristics like resource consumption or generation, as well as many other elements. This functionality will give the ROI calculator the ability to generate ROI figures based on predicted future occurrences. An example of this would be the discovery or breakthrough in a new technology. The impact of this new technology could be integrated in to the calculator to generate new results based on the new technology’s functionality. This functionality of the ROI calculator also provides the alternatives for the project. By selecting different paths of importance (such as developing one sector more than another), the allocation of industry investments can be altered and used to generate new figures based on the updated investment allocation.Investment PlanThe investment plan generated by the ROI calculator will result in a Gantt chart showing the sequence for capabilities and technologies that will be needed to reach the developed space market. It will also identify the critical capabilities and technologies needed at each “Stepping stone.” These capabilities and technologies will be needed to reach an acceptable level of sustainability.ManagementContinuing WorkThe continuation of work for the project will begin with the completion of the functional models of the 7 scenarios created for the IBM. We will need to meet with SME as well as conduct further research to insure we have reached a level of depth that would be acceptable to mitigate as much risk as possible from our project due to inaccuracies. Upon the creation of the IBM, validation will also involve evaluation by SME. Next, the Functional Gap Analysis is performed and will help with the accuracy and development of the IBM as well. The IBM will be further developed in the second half of this project. With the FGA, key technologies and capabilities that are needed will be identified and integrated into the IBM. Upon completion of the IBM, the ROI calculator will be created using the IBM. This milestone completion will allow us to test our project thesis discussed in Project Objectives. The project will come to its conclusion with the presentation of recommendations and findings.Architecture Development ProcessFor the project, the team utilized an architecture development process (Figure X) that was provided by SPEC Innovations. SPEC has been using this process for over 15 years across a wide array of projects. A description of each of the steps is below.Figure 23: Architecture Development ProcessCapture and Analyze Related Documents Capture and analyze related documents is foundation for any project. First, using the available resources such as articles, documents, web, library, and etcetera, capture as much information about the related project as possible and store it in a way that is easily accessible such as a database.Identify AssumptionsReview all the data that is capture from step one. Record down any issue that you think might affect your project. Go over the any issue and assumption with your stakeholder so they can agree and validate what you have issued with.Identify Existing/ Planned SystemConducts a survey of the current activity related to the architecture and make sure that you already have the available capabilities and the plan that are taken into account. This step is to help you reduce any duplication. This is where you identify your problem statement. List all the system that this project will be interacts with. With the plan system you want to capture when will your plan be available for evaluation.Capture ConstraintsDepending on the project, different constraints can arise in different form. Constraints are a special class of requirements. Using the previous three steps and later analysis, the constraints can be identified. Constraints can occur at technical, schedule, and political levels and can be imposed by external laws, policies, regulation and standards. Develop Operational Context DiagramThe operational context diagram describes the overall architecture environment. First, the type of system to be created must be determined. Analyze what the stakeholders can get out the system. Analyze the external systems that interface with the system, the resources the system uses and where this system be utilized. Develop Operational ScenariosThis step is where a set of scenarios is produced. Begin by creating the simplest scenario and build 7-9 scenarios until the most complex functionality has been captured. These scenarios represent interaction between the user and the system. Derive Functional BehaviorDerive the functional behavior from each scenario in step 6. It is important to recognize functional overlap between scenarios.Derive System ElementsThe system elements are derived from the functional BehaviorAllocate Functions to System ElementsTraceability between the functional behavior and the system elements occurs here.Prepare Interface DiagramsSystem interface is using the external connection to let the system work in different place. An example of this is a thumb drive which uses a USB adapter which will interface with a corresponding USB slot. The USB interface serves as a channel to transfer the data in the thumb drive to another device such as computer or lab top.Define Resources, Error Detection & RecoveryLife does not always go as planned. There will always be obstacles. All possible obstacles must be included in the scenarios developed in step 6. Alternate routes must be developed incase this obstacle occur. A comprehensive list of all resources that are being used in the scenario also needs to be developed.Perform Dynamic AnalysisThis step must be performed concurrently with step 6, 7 and 9. Dynamic analyses of the individual scenario and overall behavior, as constrained by the physical architecture, must be performedDevelop Operational Demonstration Master PlanBring an expert from the field to test the experiment to see if it fits the criteria.Provide OptionsIt is essential that the entire problem be addressed and several solutions for this problem are provided to your stakeholder. It is the stakeholder’s decision to decide the solution that fits their requirements the best. Conduct Trade off AnalysesEvaluate alternatives. Vary the parameters established in previous steps to evaluate when one alternative is better than another, and conduct sensitivity analyses on those alternatives to identify when each alternative is favorable.Generate Operational and System Views, Graphics, Briefings and ReportsThis last step encompasses the generation of diagrams, graphics, and deliverables that pertain to the project.Project RiskThere are two risks that can prolong this project. One is the validation of integrated behavior model and the other is the incomplete gap analysis. In order to mitigate these risks, the complexity of these scenarios needs to be increased to generate more accurate data. Meeting with SME also allows for more accurate in the simulation and will help validate the integrated behavior model. The other risk is an incomplete functional gap analysis. To address this, another level of depth can be added to the integrated behavior model to improve its complexity. This will make the gap in functionality between the “As-Is” and “To-Be” more pronounced, making functional gap analysis easier to conduct.Work Breakdown StructureDiagramsTeam AssignmentsTeam:1.1 Capture Related Artifacts2.2 Scope4.1 Build4.2 Validate7.0 DeliverablesDaniel Hettema:2.1 Customer Expectations3.2.2 Scenarios4.3 SimulateScott Neal1.2 Stakeholders2.4 Stakeholders3.1.1 Operational Context Diagram3.2.1 Operational Context Diagram5.3 PerformanceAnh Quach2.5 Problem Statement2.6 Need Statement2.7 Proposed Solution2.8 Assumptions5.2 ScheduleRobert Taylor2.3 Context3.1.2 Major Players5.1 Cost5.4 ROIProject BudgetThe members of this project estimated that the each team member would be able to put in at maximum 13.5 hours per week for a total of 54 hours per week. Due to initial scope issues, the group was operating behind schedule and thus earned value was lower than originally estimated. After a project re-scoping and clarification, the team began to operate more effectively and thus the team is now currently under hourly budget and only slightly behind schedule. Figure X is a graphical version of the team’s budget. During week 6, the team lost a team member, the project was re-budgeted.Figure 24: Project BudgetProject ScheduleThe Gantt chart for the schedule is on the next pages. The critical path is highlighted in red. ................
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