Saudi Arabia, Russia: Rumors of an Arms Deal
Saudi Arabia, Russia: Rumors of an Arms Deal
[Teaser:] Media are reporting that a $2 billion contract could be signed in 2009, but STRATFOR sources say this is unlikely.
Summary
Rumors of a massive defense deal between Saudi Arabia and Russia have been circulating throughout the Western and Russian press in recent days. The reports, citing “Russian defense industry sources,” claim the deal could be inked this year, but STRATFOR sources in Russia and Saudi Arabia have indicated that it is not going anywhere anytime soon. The Kremlin may have an interest in highlighting its negotiations with the Saudis to remind Washington of its growing footprint in the Middle East, but right now it’s more important for Russia to hold onto its leverage with Iran in dealing with the United States.
Analysis
Russian media reports of a major defense deal between Riyadh and Moscow have been percolating throughout the Western media in recent days. The reports in Interfax and Pravda cite “Russian defense industry sources,” who claim that a $2 billion defense deal between Saudi Arabia and Russia has entered its final stages and could be signed this year. The deal would reportedly involve Russia selling the Saudis up to 150 Mi-171 transport and Mi-35 attack helicopters, over 150 T-90C tanks, some 250 BMP-3 (infantry combat) armored vehicles and air defense systems including the yet-to-be exported S-400.
Such a massive defense deal may come as a surprise given Saudi Arabia’s near-complete reliance on U.S. (and to a lesser extent certain European) hardware and patronage for it its national security. A STRATFOR source in Moscow claims that the Russians were approached by the Saudis at the MAKS 2009 air show Aug. 18-23 in Zhukovsky, outside Moscow. The Saudis were following up earlier meetings held in Moscow and Riyadh over ways to enhance the Saudi-Russian defense relationship following the signing of a “framework agreement for military cooperation” in 2008.
But Saudi Arabia would have a difficult time integrating Russian hardware into its defense architecture. Saudi Arabia may have the best military hardware money can buy, but it has problems with basic military proficiencies, such as maintenance and logistical support. Any large defense contract like the one on the table with the Russians would dramatically complicate the already confusing mélange of American and European equipment (like F-15 and Typhoon fighters). The Saudis rely heavily on after-purchase support for training pilots and keeping airframes airworthy, and Russian after-purchase contract support is notoriously abysmal. Bringing Russia into the mix would only exacerbate existing deficiencies in training and maintenance caused by the diversification of suppliers.
Despite the complications, the Saudis have deeper, more strategic reasons for reaching out to the Russians. Riyadh’s main agenda in pursuing this Russian defense deal is to knock the legs out Russia’s strategic pact with Iran. As long as the United States continues to encroach on Russia’s former Soviet periphery, Moscow will have the incentive to push hard on the United States where it hurts most: Iran. The Russians can do this by threatening and following through on critical defense deals that could provide Iran with everything from the late model S-300 strategic air defense systems to nuclear technology to mining equipment. Armed with petrodollars, Saudi Arabia’s best defense against a Russian-Iranian defense pact is to lure the Kremlin into a lucrative defense contract with enough strings attached to keep a safe distance between Moscow and Tehran.
And the Saudis certainly have enough cash to throw at the Russians. The current Saudi defense budget is $33 billion, and it is expected to increase by another $10 billion next year. But money alone is not enough right now to keep the Russians away from Iran. STRATFOR sources in Riyadh and Moscow have indicated that the defense deal is unlikely to be sealed anytime soon. Russia doesn’t mind hinting to the United States that its ties with Washington’s strongest Arab ally are growing, but the Russian leadership also knows that one of the best ways to get the United States to take it seriously is to keep the threat of a Russian-Iranian strategic entente alive.
Saudi Arabia has picked up on a Russian reluctance to move forward with the defense contract, but it can still use rumors of a deal to put a dent in Iran’s confidence in its Russian ally.
At end of the day, both Riyadh and Washington know that Russia is no substitute for the United States in playing the role of the Saudi royal security guarantor. Moscow has little ability to project force in the Persian Gulf region in comparison to the United States, which maintains a carrier strike group and an amphibious ready group in the region virtually 24/7. Also, Russians and Saudis have a great deal of distrust for each other. Not only are the two countries natural energy competitors, but their foreign policy orientations vis-à-vis the United States have resulted in sufficient meddling in each other’s spheres -- from Saudis backing Chechnya to Russians backing Iran -- to keep the relationship on ice.
The defense deal, in effect, is a geopolitically weighted Saudi shopping spree in which petrodollars alone won’t foot the bill.
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