Market Briefing: S&P 500 Revenues, Earnings, & Dividends
Market Briefing: S&P 500 Revenues, Earnings, & Dividends
Yardeni Research, Inc.
November 3, 2021
Dr. Edward Yardeni
516-972-7683 eyardeni@
Joe Abbott
732-497-5306 jabbott@
Debbie Johnson
480-664-1333 djohnson@
Mali Quintana
480-664-1333 aquintana@
Please visit our sites at blog.
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Table Of Contents Table Of Contents
S&P 500 Earnings & Revenue Growth
1
Revenues & Earnings
2
S&P 500 Revenues
3
S&P 500 Operating Earnings
4-6
S&P 500 Dividend Yield
7
S&P 500 Dividends
8
S&P 500 Write-Offs
9
November 3, 2021 / Market Briefing: S&P 500 Revenues, Earnings, & Dividends
Yardeni Research, Inc.
S&P 500 Earnings & Revenue Growth
Figure 1.
120
S&P 500 EARNINGS PER SHARE GROWTH* 100 (yearly percent change)
120 Latest data thru 11/1/2021
100
80
80
Actual
60
y/y growth
60
Estimated
40
y/y growth**
40
20
20
Q4
0
0
-20
-20
-40
-40
-60
-60
-80
-80
-100
-100
-120
-120
95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24
* Yearly growth rates capped at +100% and -100% due to extreme values. ** Industry analysts' consensus expected earnings growth.
Source: Standard & Poor's.
Figure 2.
30
S&P 500 REVENUES PER SHARE
25
(yearly percent change)
20
30 Latest (21.8)
25
Q2 20
15
15
10
10
5
5
0
0
-5
-5
-10
-10
-15
-15
-20
-20
-25
-25
95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24
Source: Standard & Poor's.
Page 1 / November 3, 2021 / Market Briefing: S&P 500 Revenues, Earnings, & Dividends
Yardeni Research, Inc.
Revenues & Earnings
Figure 3.
1800
1800
S&P 500 REVENUES PER SHARE: FORWARD & ACTUAL
(dollars)
1600
10/21
1600
1400
Q2 1400
1200
1200
Revenues Per Share
Forward Revenues*
Revenues**
1000
(4Q sum)
1000
800
800
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
* Time-weighted average of consensus estimates for current and next year. ** Actual 4Q sum from Standard & Poor's.
Source: I/B/E/S data by Refinitiv and Standard & Poor's.
Figure 4.
1600
S&P 500 EARNINGS & REVENUES
Revenues
1400
(trailing 4-quarter sum)
Earnings*
1200
(trailing 4-quarter sum)
190 QQ23
170 150 130
110 1000
90
800
70
50 600
30
400
10
92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24
* Operating earnings. Source: Standard & Poor's.
Page 2 / November 3, 2021 / Market Briefing: S&P 500 Revenues, Earnings, & Dividends
Yardeni Research, Inc.
Figure 5.
400
S&P 500 REVENUES (dollars per share)
375
S&P 500 Revenues
400
Q2 375
350
350
325
325
300
300
275
275
250
250
225
225
200
200
175
175
150
150
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
Source: Census Bureau and Standard & Poor's.
Figure 6.
25
S&P 500 REVENUES* (yearly percent change)
20
25
Q2 20
15
15
10
10
5
5
0
0
-5
-5
-10
-10
-15
-15
-20
-20
-25
-25
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
* Using dollars per share. Source: US Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census and Standard & Poor's Corporation.
Page 3 / November 3, 2021 / Market Briefing: S&P 500 Revenues, Earnings, & Dividends
Yardeni Research, Inc.
S&P 500 Operating Earnings
Figure 7.
55
S&P 500 OPERATING EARNINGS 50 (dollars per share)
55 Q2
50
45
45
40
40
35
Total (52.8)
35
30
30
25
25
20
20
15
15
10
10
5
5
0
0
95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24
Source: I/B/E/S data by Refinitiv.
Figure 8.
60
S&P 500 OPERATING EPS (yearly percent change)
40 Total (50.0)
20
Capped at 50
60 Q2
40
20
0
0
-20
-20
-40
-40
-60
-60
-80
-80
95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24
Source: I/B/E/S data by Refinitiv.
Page 4 / November 3, 2021 / Market Briefing: S&P 500 Revenues, Earnings, & Dividends
Yardeni Research, Inc.
S&P 500 Operating Earnings
Figure 9.
500
S&P 500 AGGREGATE NET INCOME (billion dollars)
400
500
Q2 400
300
300
200
200
100
100
0
0
Operating (440.0)
-100
Reported (409.0)
-100
-200
-200
-300
-300
95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24
Source: Standard & Poor's Corporation.
Figure 10.
55
S&P 500 OPERATING EPS: THOMSON REUTERS vs. S&P MEASURES 50 (dollars per share)
55 Q2
50
45
45
40
Thomson (52.76)
40
35
S&P (52.05)
35
30
30
25
25
20
20
15
15
10
10
5
5
0
0
-5
-5
95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24
Source: Standard & Poor's Corporation and I/B/E/S data by Refinitiv.
Page 5 / November 3, 2021 / Market Briefing: S&P 500 Revenues, Earnings, & Dividends
Yardeni Research, Inc.
S&P 500 Operating Earnings
Figure 11.
200
S&P 500 TRAILING 4-QUARTER OPERATING EPS I/B/E/S VS. S&P
180
160 I/B/E/S (183.18)
140
S&P (175.54)
200
Q2
180
Q2
160
140
120
120
100
100
80
80
60
60
40
40
20
20
95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24
Source: Standard & Poor's and I/B/E/S data by Refinitiv.
Figure 12.
30
30
S&P 500 TRAILING 4-QUARTER OPERATING EPS I/B/E/S VS S&P
25
25
20
Dollar Difference in 4-Quarter Operating EPS
20
15
I/B/E/S less S&P
15
10
10
Q2
5
5
0
0
-5
-5
40
40
35
35
30
30
Percent Difference in 4-Quarter Operating EPS
25
I/B/E/S divided by S&P
25
20
20
15
15
10
10
5
Q2
5
0
0
-5
-5
-10
-10
95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24
Source: Standard & Poors and I/B/E/S data by Refinitiv.
Page 6 / November 3, 2021 / Market Briefing: S&P 500 Revenues, Earnings, & Dividends
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