S&P 500 Revenues & the Economy - Yardeni Research

S&P 500 Revenues & the Economy

Yardeni Research, Inc.

May 28, 2021

Dr. Edward Yardeni

516-972-7683 eyardeni@

Joe Abbott

732-497-5306 jabbott@

Mali Quintana

480-664-1333 aquintana@

Please visit our sites at blog.

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Table Of Contents Table Of Contents

S&P 500 Revenues Revenues & GDP Revenues & Global Economy Revenues & US Business Sales Revenues & US Factory Orders Revenues & US Trade Revenues, the Dollar, & Commodities Revenues & US GDP Revenues & Business Sales Ex-Energy Revenues & Forward Revenues & Earnings

1 2-3

4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11-12

May 28, 2021 / S&P 500 Revenues & the Economy

Yardeni Research, Inc.



S&P 500 Revenues

Figure 1.

1650

1550

S&P 500 REVENUES PER SHARE: ACTUAL (S&P quarterly data) &

1450

FORWARD (I/B/E/S weekly data)

(dollars, ratio scale)

1350

1250

1150

1050

950

850

Revenues Per Share

750

Forward* (1536.1)

Actual (x4) (1432.3)

650

1650

5/20

1550

1450

1350

1250

1150

1050

950

850

750

650

550

550



450

450

92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24

* Time-weighted average of analysts' consensus estimates for S&P 500 revenues per share for current year and next year. Monthly through December 2005, then weekly. Note: Shaded areas are recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research. Source: Standard & Poor's (for actual revenues) and I/B/E/S data by Refinitiv (for forward revenues).

Figure 2.

25

25

S&P 500 REVENUES

20 (yearly percent change)

20

15

15

10

Q1

10

5

5

0

0

-5

-5

-10

-10

S&P 500 Revenues

Aggregate* (9.9)

-15

Per Share (7.7)

-15

-20

-20



-25

-25

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022

* S&P quarterly data, not per share. Revenues are derived by multiplying S&P 500 revenues per share by the S&P 500 divisor for each quarter. Note: Shaded areas are recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research. Source: Standard & Poor's.

Page 1 / May 28, 2021 / S&P 500 Revenues & the Economy

Yardeni Research, Inc.



Revenues & GDP

Figure 3.

.70

.70

S&P 500 AGGREGATE REVENUES* DIVIDED BY US NOMINAL GDP

.65

.65

.60

.60

.55

Q1

.55

.50

.50



.45

.45

92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22

* S&P quarterly data, not per share. Revenues are derived by multiplying S&P 500 revenues per share by the S&P 500 divisor for each quarter. Note: Shaded areas are recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research. Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, and Standard & Poor's.

Figure 4.

25

25

S&P 500 AGGREGATE REVENUES & NOMINAL GNP

20

(yearly percent change)

20

15

15

10

10

Q1

5

5

0

0

-5

-5

-10

-10

-15

S&P 500 Aggregate Revenues* (9.9)

-15

Nominal GDP Goods (8.5)

-20

-20



-25

-25

93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22

* S&P quarterly data, not per share. Revenues are derived by multiplying S&P 500 revenues per share by the S&P 500 divisor for each quarter. Note: Shaded areas are recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research. Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis and Standard & Poor's.

Page 2 / May 28, 2021 / S&P 500 Revenues & the Economy

Yardeni Research, Inc.



Revenues & GDP

Figure 5.

25

25

S&P 500 AGGREGATE REVENUES & NOMINAL GNP

20

(yearly percent change)

20

15

15

10

10

5

5

0

Q1

0

-5

-5

-10

-10

-15

S&P 500 Aggregate Revenues* (9.9)

-15

Nominal GDP Services (-0.8)

-20

-20



-25

-25

94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22

* S&P quarterly data, not per share. Revenues are derived by multiplying S&P 500 revenues per share by the S&P 500 divisor for each quarter. Note: Shaded areas are recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research. Source: Bureau of the Census and Standard & Poor's.

Figure 6.

30

NOMINAL GDP (yearly percent change)

20

30

Nominal GDP

Services (-0.8)

20

Goods (8.5)



10

10

Q1

0

0

-10

-10

48 50 52 54 56 58 60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24

Note: Shaded areas are recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research. Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis.

Page 3 / May 28, 2021 / S&P 500 Revenues & the Economy

Yardeni Research, Inc.



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