S&P 500 Revenues & the Economy - Yardeni Research
S&P 500 Revenues & the Economy
Yardeni Research, Inc.
May 28, 2021
Dr. Edward Yardeni
516-972-7683 eyardeni@
Joe Abbott
732-497-5306 jabbott@
Mali Quintana
480-664-1333 aquintana@
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Table Of Contents Table Of Contents
S&P 500 Revenues Revenues & GDP Revenues & Global Economy Revenues & US Business Sales Revenues & US Factory Orders Revenues & US Trade Revenues, the Dollar, & Commodities Revenues & US GDP Revenues & Business Sales Ex-Energy Revenues & Forward Revenues & Earnings
1 2-3
4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11-12
May 28, 2021 / S&P 500 Revenues & the Economy
Yardeni Research, Inc.
S&P 500 Revenues
Figure 1.
1650
1550
S&P 500 REVENUES PER SHARE: ACTUAL (S&P quarterly data) &
1450
FORWARD (I/B/E/S weekly data)
(dollars, ratio scale)
1350
1250
1150
1050
950
850
Revenues Per Share
750
Forward* (1536.1)
Actual (x4) (1432.3)
650
1650
5/20
1550
1450
1350
1250
1150
1050
950
850
750
650
550
550
450
450
92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24
* Time-weighted average of analysts' consensus estimates for S&P 500 revenues per share for current year and next year. Monthly through December 2005, then weekly. Note: Shaded areas are recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research. Source: Standard & Poor's (for actual revenues) and I/B/E/S data by Refinitiv (for forward revenues).
Figure 2.
25
25
S&P 500 REVENUES
20 (yearly percent change)
20
15
15
10
Q1
10
5
5
0
0
-5
-5
-10
-10
S&P 500 Revenues
Aggregate* (9.9)
-15
Per Share (7.7)
-15
-20
-20
-25
-25
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
* S&P quarterly data, not per share. Revenues are derived by multiplying S&P 500 revenues per share by the S&P 500 divisor for each quarter. Note: Shaded areas are recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research. Source: Standard & Poor's.
Page 1 / May 28, 2021 / S&P 500 Revenues & the Economy
Yardeni Research, Inc.
Revenues & GDP
Figure 3.
.70
.70
S&P 500 AGGREGATE REVENUES* DIVIDED BY US NOMINAL GDP
.65
.65
.60
.60
.55
Q1
.55
.50
.50
.45
.45
92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22
* S&P quarterly data, not per share. Revenues are derived by multiplying S&P 500 revenues per share by the S&P 500 divisor for each quarter. Note: Shaded areas are recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research. Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, and Standard & Poor's.
Figure 4.
25
25
S&P 500 AGGREGATE REVENUES & NOMINAL GNP
20
(yearly percent change)
20
15
15
10
10
Q1
5
5
0
0
-5
-5
-10
-10
-15
S&P 500 Aggregate Revenues* (9.9)
-15
Nominal GDP Goods (8.5)
-20
-20
-25
-25
93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22
* S&P quarterly data, not per share. Revenues are derived by multiplying S&P 500 revenues per share by the S&P 500 divisor for each quarter. Note: Shaded areas are recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research. Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis and Standard & Poor's.
Page 2 / May 28, 2021 / S&P 500 Revenues & the Economy
Yardeni Research, Inc.
Revenues & GDP
Figure 5.
25
25
S&P 500 AGGREGATE REVENUES & NOMINAL GNP
20
(yearly percent change)
20
15
15
10
10
5
5
0
Q1
0
-5
-5
-10
-10
-15
S&P 500 Aggregate Revenues* (9.9)
-15
Nominal GDP Services (-0.8)
-20
-20
-25
-25
94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22
* S&P quarterly data, not per share. Revenues are derived by multiplying S&P 500 revenues per share by the S&P 500 divisor for each quarter. Note: Shaded areas are recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research. Source: Bureau of the Census and Standard & Poor's.
Figure 6.
30
NOMINAL GDP (yearly percent change)
20
30
Nominal GDP
Services (-0.8)
20
Goods (8.5)
10
10
Q1
0
0
-10
-10
48 50 52 54 56 58 60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24
Note: Shaded areas are recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research. Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis.
Page 3 / May 28, 2021 / S&P 500 Revenues & the Economy
Yardeni Research, Inc.
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