Dr. David Kelly, CFA - J.P. Morgan Asset Management - J.P ...
Global Market Insights Strategy Team
Americas
Europe
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Gabriela Santos New York
Meera Pandit, CFA New York
Jordan Jackson New York
Mary Park Durham New York
Erin Erdoes New York
Dr. David Kelly, CFA New York
Jack Manley New York
Stephanie Aliaga New York
Hugh Gimber, CFA London
Aaron Hussein, CAIA London
Max McKechnie London
Brandon Hall New York
Natasha May London
Marina Valentini S?o Paulo
Zara Nokes London
Karen Ward London
Vincent Juvyns Luxembourg
Tilmann Galler, CFA Frankfurt
Maria Paola Toschi Milan
Marcella Chow Hong Kong
Ian Hui Hong Kong
Jennifer Qiu Hong Kong
Tai Hui Hong Kong
Shogo Maekawa Tokyo
Fumiaki Morioka Tokyo
Chaoping Zhu, CFA Shanghai
Elena Domecq Madrid
Raisah Rasid Singapore
Arthur Jiang Shanghai
Lucia Gutierrez Mellado Madrid
Sahil Gauba Mumbai
Agnes Lin Taipei
Kerry Craig, CFA Melbourne
S&P 500 Price Index
5,800 5,400 5,000 4,600
Characteristic Index Level P/E Ratio (fwd.) Dividend Yield 10-yr. Treasury
3/24/2000 10/9/2007 2/19/2020
1,527
1,565
3,386
25.2x
15.1x
19.2x
1.4%
1.9%
1.9%
6.2%
4.7%
1.6%
1/3/2022 4,797 21.4x 1.3% 1.6%
6/30/2024 5,460 21.0x 1.4% 4.4%
4,200
Jun. 30, 2024 P/E (fwd.) = 21.0x
5,460
Jan. 3, 2022 P/E (fwd.) = 21.4x
4,797
+114%
+53%
3,800 3,400 3,000 2,600 2,200 1,800
Mar. 24, 2000 P/E (fwd.) = 25.2x
1,527
Oct. 9, 2007 P/E (fwd.) = 15.1x
1,565
+401%
Feb. 19, 2020 P/E (fwd.) = 19.2x
3,386
-25%
-34%
Oct. 12, 2022 P/E (fwd.) = 15.7x
3,577
Mar. 23, 2020 P/E (fwd.) = 13.3x
2,237
1,400 +106%
-49% +101%
1,000 600
Dec. 31, 1996 P/E (fwd.) = 15.9x
741
Oct. 9, 2002 -57% P/E (fwd.) = 14.1x
777
Mar. 9, 2009 P/E (fwd.) = 10.4x
677
'96 '97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 '19 '20 '21 '22 '23
S&P 500 Index: Forward P/E ratio
30x
Valuation measure Description
28x
P/E
Forward P/E
CAPE
Shiller's P/E
26x
Div. Yield
Dividend yield
P/B
Price to book
24x
P/CF
Price to cash flow
EY Spread
EY minus Baa yield
22x
+1 Std. dev.: 19.94x 20x
Latest
21.01x 35.22x 1.41% 4.32x 16.08x -1.08%
30-year avg.*
Std. dev.
over/under-valued
16.69x
1.33
27.80x
1.21
1.99%
1.67
3.15x
1.46
11.23x
2.12
0.04%
0.61
18x 30-year average: 16.69x
16x
14x
-1 Std. dev.: 13.44x 12x
10x
8x
'94
'96
'98
'00
'02
'04
'06
'08
'10
'12
'14
'16
'18
'20
Jun. 30, 2024: 21.01x
'22
'24
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