SÃO PAULO VIRUS PANDEMIC SCENARIO

Cambridge Centre for Risk Studies Cambridge Risk Framework Human Pandemic: Stress Test Scenario

S?O PAULO VIRUS PANDEMIC SCENARIO

Air Traffic Network of the World Conduit for Pandemic Spread

I nfect ed p assengers sp read th e p andemic from co untry to co untry . Col our co ding sh ow s th e simul ated sp read of th e Sao P aul o V I rus P andemic ove r time.

Cambridge Centre for Risk Studies University of Cambridge Judge Business School Trumpington Street Cambridge, CB2 1AG United Kingdom enquiries.risk@jbs.cam.ac.uk October 2014

The Cambridge Centre for Risk Studies acknowledges the generous support provided for this research by the following organisations:

The views contained in this report are entirely those of the research team of the Cambridge Centre for Risk Studies, and do not imply any endorsement of these views by the organisations supporting the research.

This report describes a hypothetical scenario developed as a stress test for risk management purposes. It does not constitute a prediction. The Cambridge Centre for Risk Studies develops hypothetical scenarios for use in improving business resilience to shocks. These are contingency scenarios used for `what-if' studies and do not constitute forecasts of what is likely to happen.

Report citation:

Ruffle, S.J.; Bowman, G.; Caccioli, F.; Coburn, A.W.; Kelly, S.; Leslie, B.; Ralph, D.; 2014, Stress Test Scenario: S?o Paulo Virus Pandemic; Cambridge Risk Framework series; Centre for Risk Studies, University of Cambridge.

Research Project Team

Pandemic Project Lead Dr Andrew Coburn, Director of External Advisory Board, Centre for Risk Studies and SVP, RMS, Inc.

Pandemic Subject Matter Editor Mary Chang, Medical Research Analyst, RMS, Inc.

Cambridge Centre for Risk Studies Research Team Professor Daniel Ralph, Academic Director Dr Michelle Tuveson, Executive Director Dr Andrew Coburn, Director of External Advisory Board Simon Ruffle, Director of Technology Research Dr Gary Bowman, Research Associate Dr Fabio Caccioli, Research Associate Dr Scott Kelly, Research Associate Dr Roxane Foulser-Piggott, Research Associate Dr Louise Pryor, Risk Researcher Andrew Skelton, Risk Researcher Ben Leslie, Risk Researcher Dr Duncan Needham, Risk Associate

Consultants and Collaborators Oxford Economics Ltd., with particular thanks to Fabio Ortalani, Senior Economist Financial Networks Analytics Ltd., with particular thanks to Dr Kimmo Soramaki, Founder and CEO; and Dr Samantha Cook, Chief Scientist Cambridge Architectural Research Ltd., with particular thanks to Hannah Baker, Graduate Research Assistant Axco Ltd., with particular thanks to Tim Yeates, Business Development Director Dr Andrew Auty, Re: Liability (Oxford) Ltd. Antonios Pomonis, Independent Consultant Dr Gordon Woo, RMS, Inc. Dr Doug Crawford-Brown, Director of the Cambridge Centre for Climate Change Mitigation Research (4CMR) at the University of Cambridge

Cambridge Centre for Risk Studies Website and Research Platform

S? o P aul o V irus P andemic Sce nario

Stress Test Scenario

S?o Paulo Virus Pandemic Scenario

Contents

1 Executive Summary

2

2 Stress Test Scenarios

5

3 Pandemic as an Emerging Risk

11

4 Defining the Scenario

15

5 The Scenario

18

6 Loss and Direct Impacts

24

7 Macroeconomic Consequences

29

8 Impact on Investment Portfolios

36

9 Managing the Risk

42

10 Bibliography

46

1

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