Public School Enrollment Projections 2018 -2027

Public School Enrollment Projections

2018 -2027

The new Allegany High School in Cumberland, Maryland, opened its doors in 2018, replacing the old high school which opened in 1926.

September 2018

State of Maryland

Larry Hogan Governor

Boyd K. Rutherford Lt. Governor

Maryland Department of Planning

Robert McCord Secretary

Maryland Department of Planning 301 West Preston Street, Suite 1101 Baltimore, Maryland 21201 Tel: 410.767.4500 Toll Free: 1.877.767.6272 TTY users: Maryland Relay planning.

Public School Enrollment Projections, 2018-2027 September 2018 Publication No. 2018-001

This Public-School Enrollment Projections report was produced by the Projections and State Data Center of the Maryland Department of Planning as a service to local governments and planning officials.

Foreword

This report, Public School Enrollment Projections, 2018-2027, is an update of the Maryland Department of Planning's annual report on public school enrollment statistics.

The report provides projections of public school enrollment through 2027 by grade for each of Maryland's jurisdictions (23counties and Baltimore City). Statistics on actual total and public-school enrollment for 2007-2017 are also included.

The public-school enrollment projections utilize the Maryland Department of Planning's population projections by age and sex for each jurisdiction. The population projections are used to derive school-age population (persons 5-17 years of age) and projected births. These projections are then used in conjunction with a "grade succession" methodology to derive the ten-year, grade-specific enrollment projections.

A preliminary set of enrollment projections along with supporting materials documenting the projection methodology were sent previously to each School Superintendent and facility planner.

Table of Contents

Foreword............................................................................................................................................................................................... i Executive Summary .............................................................................................................................................................................. 1

Statewide Totals .............................................................................................................................................................................. 1 Jurisdiction Trends ........................................................................................................................................................................... 6 Long-Term Statewide Demographic Perspective................................................................................................................................. 8 Births................................................................................................................................................................................................ 9 Domestic Migration and Foreign Immigration .............................................................................................................................. 12 Intra-State Migration ..................................................................................................................................................................... 16 Public/Private Enrollment Share.................................................................................................................................................... 16 Trends and Projections in Public School Enrollment by Type ............................................................................................................ 17 Total Public School Enrollment...................................................................................................................................................... 17 Public Elementary School Enrollment (grades K through 5) ........................................................................................................... 17 Public Middle School Enrollment (grades 6 through 8) .................................................................................................................. 18 Public High School Enrollment (grades 9 through 12) .................................................................................................................... 19 Jurisdiction Projections over the Next 10 Years................................................................................................................................. 21 Total Enrollment ............................................................................................................................................................................ 21 Elementary School Enrollment ....................................................................................................................................................... 27 Middle School Enrollment ............................................................................................................................................................. 31 High School Enrollment ................................................................................................................................................................. 32 Methodology...................................................................................................................................................................................... 39 Population Projections .................................................................................................................................................................. 39 Grade Succession Projections........................................................................................................................................................ 39 Organization of Detailed Data Tables ................................................................................................................................................ 43

i

List of Charts

Chart 1. Historical Annual Change in Total Public School Enrollment in Maryland, 2008 - 2017 ........................................................ 1 Chart 2. Projected Annual Change in Total Public School Enrollment in Maryland, 2018 - 2027 ........................................................ 2 Chart 3. Projected Annual Change in Public Elementary School Enrollment in Maryland, 2018 - 2027.............................................. 3 Chart 4. Projected Annual Change in Public Middle School Enrollment in Maryland, 2018 - 2027..................................................... 4 Chart 5. Projected Annual Change in Public High School Enrollment in Maryland, 2018 -2027.......................................................... 5 Chart 6. Total Public School Enrollment in Maryland, Historical and Projected, 1970 - 2027 ............................................................. 8 Chart 7. Total Births in Maryland, Historical and Projected, 1940 - 2022............................................................................................ 9 Chart 8. Cumulative Births by School Year in in Maryland Historical & Projected, 1970 - 2027........................................................ 10 Chart 9. Annual Change in Cumulative Births by School Year in Maryland, Historical & Projected, 1971 - 2027 ............................. 11 Chart 10. Annualized Net Domestic Migration and Foreign Immigration into Maryland .................................................................. 12 Chart 11. Annualized Total Net Migration for Maryland ................................................................................................................... 13 Chart 12. Increase in Foreign Born as a Percent of Change in Total Population, 2000 - 2017........................................................... 14 Chart 13. Change in Total Public School Enrollment in Maryland by Race & Hispanic Origin, 2000 - 2017 ...................................... 15 Chart 14. Percent Change in Total Public School Enrollment in Maryland by Race & Hispanic Origin, 2000 - 2017 ......................... 15 Chart 15. Share of Total Public School Enrollment in Maryland by Race & Hispanic Origin, 2000 and 2017 .................................... 16 Chart 16. Public Elementary School Enrollment in Maryland, Historical and Projected, 1972 - 2027............................................... 18 Chart 17. Public Middle School Enrollment in Maryland, Historical and Projected, 1972 - 2027...................................................... 19 Chart 18. Public High School Enrollment in Maryland, Historical and Projected, 1972 - 2027.......................................................... 20 Chart 19. Change in Public School Enrollment by Jurisdiction, 2017 - 2027 ...................................................................................... 21 Chart 20. Percent Change in Public School Enrollment by Jurisdiction, 2017 - 2027......................................................................... 26

ii

 ................
................

In order to avoid copyright disputes, this page is only a partial summary.

Google Online Preview   Download